Flux News

Onyx Capital Group is proud to launch a brand new show; Macro Monday's with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. 

On today's show James discusses recent strong economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the US dollar strength. 

He also dives into what's happening with gold, silver and equity markets. It seems like tech stocks are crashing at the moment, with Nvidia -21.8 from ATH and Tesla down 49.4% from its all-time high. 

James walks us through recent US unemployment data and lets us know the risks to watch for the week ahead. 

Tune in to World of Oil Derivatives tomorrow to hear James discuss these trends further. 

If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie. You can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie

Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: 
James Brodie:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:35 Economic data
6:13 OIS pricing
7:54 US dollar strength
11:50 Equities
14:22 Gold and silver
18:16 Employment data
20:09 The week ahead
22:02 Volatility

Off the back of another tense week with the recent attacks by Iran on Israel, Greg, Jorge, James and Martha discuss the impact (or, lack thereof) the event had on oil prices. As a bonus for this episode, Jorge and Martha will provide a trade idea each! 

There was a muted response for Brent futures, with prices oscillating around $90/bbl, opening on Monday at $90/bbl and closing at $90.50/bbl. Looking at the CFTC report, the market is quite long - especially by managed by money players.

The refinery margins have increased week on week, but mostly due to a weakened dated crude market. Gasoline continues to rally after a bit of a dip last week. The European gasoline market seems stubbornly long.

James’ one to watch this week is the continued dollar strength and higher U.S. yields - which are breaking equity market momentum, with gold making continued new all-time highs.

Aside from the major story of the Iran retaliation attack on Israel, in our Googling Oil segment, the team discus the new regulations in Nigeria which will require oil producers to sell crude to domestic refineries.

Martha’s trade idea this week is propane - selling the LST/FEI in May. Jorge also shares his trade idea, the WTI to Dubai Spread - which Jorge thinks will widen as Dubai crude powers ahead in Asia.

You can watch the LST/FEI trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8sKmB_ymD8I

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:16 This week in trading 
9:12 Macro market news 
15:20 CTA positioning
16:49 Refinery margins 
19:38 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
24:11 Trade idea of the week 
28:47 Poll results 
29:48 "Fiscal entrapment"

Prices were around $89/bbl last week, but since then there's been a noticeable uptick - not quite reaching $92/bbl and oscillating around $90/bbl since. Refinery margins have weakened, with refined products struggling - with the exception of gasoline. Gasoil is extremely weak, with poor distillate performance in all regions. 

EBOB has seen greater strength with the market keen to buy into last week's weakness. Looking to our macro news segment, James unpacks the latest headlines shaking up financial markets. A significant move ensued yesterday (Wednesday 10th April) following yet another robust CPI print. Notably, 2-year bond yields surged a staggering 23 basis points, marking a substantial 4.6% increase on the day. 

Concurrently, the dollar strengthened by over 1%, sending equities futures tumbling by 1.4% on the open. The Federal Reserve finds itself in a delicate position after adopting a dovish stance in Q4 2023, with the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) now pricing in just 42 basis points of cuts this year. As commodities face headwinds amidst tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar, James, Greg and Martha analyse the implications for investors and the broader economic landscape. 

The trade idea for this week is to short the May/Jun C3 CP spread. You can watch this trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8N2bNTOYOqc

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome 
1:43 This week in trading 
5:58 Macro market news 
25:00 Refinery margins 
34:04 Ones to watch
41:43 Poll results and outro

Brent Futures have made a notable climb since last week, hitting $89/bbl on Tuesday morning. It's crucial to analyse the impact of recent developments on oil demand. Notably, both China and the USA have seen expansions in manufacturing activity, marking significant milestones. What has been the impact of headlines regarding tighter supply and the possible contagion of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East?

Examining the refinery margin, we observed a supportive trend in the Dated market. However, product stagnation ahead of Easter also weighed down on the margin. EBOB and gasoil have experienced declines week-on-week, signalling potential shifts in market dynamics.

Macro news headlines paint a picture of resilience and growth, with manufacturing data showing surprising strength from both China and the U.S. The inflation outlook remains stable, with no concerns stemming from recent U.S. PCE data. Additionally, the US Dollar and gold continue their upward trajectory, while equities display a remarkable bullish trend reminiscent of 1989. Key data releases to watch out for this week include European CPI on Wednesday and U.S. payrolls on Friday, which could offer valuable insights into future market movements.

In our "Googling Oil" segment the team focus on Mexico's decision to halt some oil exports, which could significantly impact the global market. Pemex has cancelled contracts to supply its flagship Maya crude oil to refiners in the US, Europe, and Asia. This strategic move aims to prioritize domestic gasoline and diesel production ahead of the June 2 presidential election. With Mexico typically exporting around 600,000 barrels a day of Maya crude oil, this decision reverberates across the oil landscape, highlighting the intricate balance between geopolitical strategies and market dynamics.

The Trade Idea for this week is to buy the May/Jun DFL roll. You can watch this trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/CVHxPCROTV0

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:

Greg Newman:     https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome
0:39 This week in trading
4:42 Macro market news 
8:11 Refinery margins 
11:35 Russian oil/refineries 
13:53 Light ends
15:47 Ones to watch
23:10 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
29:20 Trade idea of the week 
33:35 Poll results and outro

Brent futures surged to $87.70 last week, only to encounter resistance and profit-taking flows, settling this week at a sturdy $85-86/bbl range. Macroeconomic factors and persistent supply concerns are pivotal in sustaining these levels.

Refinery margins face widespread pressure across regions, while the gasoil market sentiment remains subdued amidst spring demand and increased freight, notably from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. Yet, amidst these challenges, there's a glimmer of hope for correction as demand dynamics evolve.

Looking to the more macro side of things, James Brodie discusses the sudden dovish stance adopted by central banks and SNB's surprising 25bp cut to the cautious rhetoric of the Fed and Bank of England regarding bond/OIS curves.

In our 'Googling Oil' segment, Greg, Vincent, Martha, and James explore intriguing headlines, including the milestone of the USA surpassing all nations in oil and gas production and Ukraine's strategic use of long-range strike drones against Russia's oil industry.

Vincent presents a compelling trade idea: shorting the summer crack, which Greg dubbed 'The Widow Maker.' Tune in as Greg, Martha, Vincent and James dissect, analyse, and forecast the fascinating developments in the oil market landscape.

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome 
0:57 This Week in Trading
6:47 Macro market news 
10:41 Dated Brent
12:56 Refinery margins
18:08 Gasoline
22:06 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
28:25 Trade idea of the week 
32:14 Brent spreads
34:13 Poll results and outro

In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Co-Head of Light Ends, Jasper Bird.

Jasper and Greg shed light on the realities of being a Trader, how egos can play a part in trading, and uncover the inner workings of a trader's mentality.

They delve into the highs and lows of trading and the challenges of maintaining social and entertainment balance as you age in the industry.

With over 6 years of experience at Onyx Capital Group, Jasper opens up about his journey into trading, his evolution within the company, and the resilient mindset necessary not only to survive but to thrive in the fast-paced world of trading and beyond.

#oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #trading #finance #derivatives #investing #advice #careers #leadership 

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome and introduction
1:09 Jasper's career & getting into trading
3:25 Naphtha market
13:28 The mind of a trader 
19:30 Ego and trading
25:46 Trading culture and burnout
30:37 Looking to the future

With Group CEO Greg Newman abroad, Light Ends Direct Trader James Todd steps up to host World of Oil Derivatives for another market update episode. 

Since last week, Brent Futures price rallied from sub $83/bbl this week to over $87.50/bbl yesterday. The breakout from its previous range came on the back of a flurry of bullish headlines - including drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, draws in both crude and gasoline inventories in the US, and positive Chinese economic data. 

Looking to the refinery margin, there was strength across all products, outweighing the rally in the flat price last week, so the refinery margin saw a small increase. 

James Brodie weighs in to comment on macro-economic trends. The bank of Japan hiked rates for the first time in seventeen years. US inflation is not coming down as quickly as it is in Europe, and the CPI is still just above 3%. This presents a slight concern for the Fed. 

Vincent leads our "Googling Oil" segment, and the team discuss the big news stories of the week, including recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and how they were able rebuild and be up and running in a day. 

The trade idea this week is to buy the Q2’24 NWE Jet diff. If you would like a further explanation of the trade idea for this week, you can watch it here: https://youtu.be/oozORbGjZsA

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
James Todd: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-t-693967a9/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:38 Brent flat price & this week in trading
10:27 Refinery margins
18:18 Macro market news 
22:12 "Googling oil:" world oil news
32:39 Trade idea of the week
36:52 Poll results and outro

Crude flat price has been remarkably neutral in the past week, sitting around $82/bbl (slightly down from $83/bbl). However, the market has found a genuine equilibrium - a price level where everyone seems happy.

Looking to the refinery margin, Naphtha showed significant strength with the MOPJ crack for April exceeding -$5/bbl, while Mar/Apr in the NWE region remained robust at $20/mt. Gasnaphs saw a rise from $185 to $195/mt for April, which drew bids at the relatively cheaper levels. EBOB experienced a $2/bbl rally this week, returning to strength.

The key global macro movers this week are gold and the S&P 500, which continue to make all-time highs. We should also be watching for a stronger US dollar - as European and UK data continue to weaken, while the U.S. economy remains resilient.

In our "Googling Oil" segment, Greg, James and Vincent discuss further Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure ahead of Russia's presidential election this weekend. The other key headline this week is the OPEC and IEA being at their most divided in their oil demand forecast since at least 2008.

Vincent's trade idea this week is Long Apr/May Brent/Dubai box.

If you'd like to see Finlay Gordan's trade idea for this week, click here: https://youtu.be/we45Tv-hIWw

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman:   https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu:     https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
James Brodie:   https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
0:57 This Week in Trading 
6:21 Brent/Dubai
9:28 Macro Market News 
16:47 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News 
25:11 Trade Idea of the Week
29:06 Poll Results and Outro

Oil markets are all of a sudden kicking into gear, and it seems we are now on that highway to the danger zone. With every market indicator of the underlying physical market strong, and forward derivative prices indicating that this will last for some time, the only thing left to truly perform is the outright price. 

Will this carry through? And will the danger zone of inflation, demand destruction and overextension grip oil markets once again?

It’s been a bullish week in the crude market, which continued into a very strong Brent expiry for April futures. On the flat price side, it’s still a bullish tone but remaining range bound.

Refinery margins have seen a stark contrast week-on-week between the European and Asian refinery margins, which has come from a divergence in the gasoline market between the two regions.

The one to watch this week is China, as its announced its aim for an economic growth rate of 5% in 2024,and CPI around 3% - which aims to add 12 million urban jobs in 2024.

And on our Googling Oil segment, the main story to follow this week is OPEC members extending production cuts in  bid to boost oil price.

Finally, Vincent’s trade idea for this week is to short April or May Sing 0.5% crack.

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu:    https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:22 This Week in Trading 
6:13 Refinery Margins 
8:41 Macro Market News 
14:15 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News 
21:16 Trade Idea of the Week
34:28 Poll Results and Outro

It's been another rangebound, albeit less bullish week in Brent futures. Crude prices came off from around $84/bbl. down to the low 80s, where it found some support on Monday.

As for the refinery margin change, Dated Brent is significantly weaker. There were some significant moves in gasoline and gasoil. The latter saw a real weakness in prices amid poor European demand. Martha also looked into American refinery margins, which is also weak across the whole gasoil complex and heating oil especially.

James Brodie weighs in for macro news headlines. The big news for last week was that the Nvidia earnings soared and 34 years later, while Nikkei finally broke above its 1989 high. Off the back of these huge Nvidia earnings, Greg raises an important discussion regarding the tech bubble. If everyone is in wait and see mode, regarding the tech bubble, does that not tell you that a recession is unlikely?

Martha wraps up the podcast with her fuel oil trade idea, to sell the Apr/May 3.5% spread. There are both fundamental and financial flows factors with the fuel oil stock levels in the ARA being relatively high.

Make sure to follow us on X, as Vincent will be posting about the Brent expiry. Follow us @Onyx__Edge.

For weekly data insights, subscribe to our newsletter on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/build-relation/newsletter-follow?entityUrn=7148228862387109888

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu:    https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:30 This Week in Trading 
6:25 Refinery Margins
8:57 Macro Market News 
13:39 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News 
17:47 Trade Idea
21:02 Brent Forecast
24:07 Poll Results and Outro