Focus on Politics

Hamilton West polling for a new MP closes on 10 December - a litmus test for next year's general election. Crime and the cost of living are top of mind for most voters, but so far they're not rushing to the ballot box.

"By-elections, they're a phenomenon in themselves," - Former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark

Hamilton West polling for a new MP closes on 10 December - a litmus test for next year's general election.

Crime and the cost of living are top of mind for most voters, but so far they're not rushing to the ballot box.

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The by-election was prompted by the former Labour MP Gaurav Sharma's spectacular exit from Parliament, in the wake of his removal from the party's caucus.

The electorate has historically sided with whichever party holds the majority and Sharma was swept into the role in Labour's red wave in 2020.

But Labour is down in the polls, and a spate of ram raids which have dominated headlines have been a big focus for those on the Waikato River's western banks.

Te Rapa Mini Mart owner Anil Mushke is one of those who have been hit, and says he doesn't feel safe at work. The young offenders he's observed don't seem to care about the law, he says, but still thinks tougher penalties is the way to go.

"I was here doing the work and six teens tried to rob the shop, luckily nothing happened, I was successful chasing them out, but still ... if they get caught by the police nothing happens to them. The kids know, the teens know it, that's the thing that encourages them."

The rising cost of living also looms large: just down the road, charity store volunteer Gwen says everyone is feeling the pinch - from young families to pensioners - and it's lucky the op shops are able to provide cheap shoes for the kids.

Read more:

National, Labour leaders in Hamilton to endorse by-election candidates

Hamilton West by-election: Crime and cost of living top of mind for voters

By-election candidates begin campaigning

Race heats up as 12 people contest in the Hamilton West by-election

There's 12 candidates but four real frontrunners, with polls giving National the edge. The party's candidate Tama Potaka is a lawyer and the former chief executive of Ngāi Tai ki Tāmaki.

He was talking tough love during a visit to a retirement village this week. …

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Dire economic predictions and high interest rates from the Reserve Bank this week have increased the pressure on Labour, and given National a chance to pitch itself as the solution.

"Inflation is no one's friend and in order to rid the country of inflation, we need to reduce spending levels," - Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr

Dire economic predictions and high interest rates from the Reserve Bank this week have increased the pressure on Labour, and given National a chance to pitch itself as the solution.

The opposition party also ditched its politically problematic plan to cut the top tax rate, after weeks of laying the groundwork.

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Against a backdrop of global uncertainty and conflict, the cost of living continues to worsen for New Zealanders.

Rebounding tourism is creating more demand and record-low unemployment is boosting wages - a recipe that promises to keep inflation higher for longer.

The Reserve Bank is predicting a year-long recession starting mid-2023 will curb spiralling prices, and this week lifted the official cash rate a record 75 basis points to help push things along.

It aims to slow the rate of borrowing, but this inevitably means more pressure on households. Mortgagees on floating rates or with fixed terms ending soon will be feeling increasingly stressed - particularly those first-home buyers who may have borrowed large sums.

Read more:

Labour's nightmare reality - an election year recession

Recession: What you need to know

OCR hike not fair, necessary or likely to stop rising prices - economist

Orr apologises for 'significant economic shocks', says RBNZ engineering recession

OCR hike: What we know so far and what is being said

National's tax policy under review post-OCR hike, Luxon says

The OCR: What you need to know

As well as higher mortgage rates, a higher OCR will also impact on the job market - unemployment is sitting at 3.3 percent, but is forecast to rise to over 5 percent through 2024 and 2025.

Governor Adrian Orr assured MPs at Parliament's finance committee the bank had run scenarios with the cash rate over 7 percent, unemployment at 9 percent, and house prices falling at 45 percent, the financial system would remain stable. …

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Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern returned to the international stage this week, even as the war in Ukraine threatened to spill beyond its borders.

"Worst-case scenario, the conflict spreads over the borders - then it becomes uncontrollable" - Al Gillespie

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern returned to the international stage this week, even as the war in Ukraine threatened to spill beyond its borders.

The ASEAN, G20 and APEC summits offered chances for conversations with several world leaders, driving home the value of diplomacy.

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News of a rocket blast in Poland that killed two people broke early on Wednesday morning New Zealand time. Its origins unknown, the possibility of a Russian attack sent authorities scrambling.

Poland called an urgent meeting of its national security council and NATO allies began immediate investigations, while world leaders at the G20 talks in Bali convened an emergency meeting led by Biden.

The stakes were immense: Poland is a member of NATO and could invoke Article 5 of the military alliance's charter which states an armed attack against one "shall be considered an attack against them all" and could prompt use of force. However, as Waikato University law professor Al Gillespie told Checkpoint, all 30 members would need to reach consensus for that to happen.

Read more:

NATO, Poland say missile was Ukrainian

Ardern hopes to drive regional consensus at Asian summits

PM Jacinda Ardern in Vietnam: Top-level meetings and ceremony

Miller: Ardern's Asia trip rekindles independent foreign policy

PM in Vietnam focuses on trade, food production

Myanmar govt's executions 'a stain on region' - Jacinda Ardern

New Zealand had just days before confirmed it was continuing deployments in support of Ukraine through to mid-2023.

Ardern - in Vietnam to rejuvenate New Zealand's trade with the $2 billion export market including limes and pomelos - had been anticipating heightened geopolitical tensions during her trip - but not to this extent.

She urged caution, "but also to continue to call for all leaders to do what we can to ensure that ultimately the war ends". …

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Labour faithful were in fine form at the party's annual conference last weekend, but an unflattering political poll on Sunday soon soured the mood.

" can disagree with something happening, but unless they're willing to change it themselves - and let's be clear, they do have the power to do that - then what are we all here for?" - Brad Olsen

Labour faithful were in fine form at the party's annual conference last weekend, but an unflattering political poll on Sunday soon soured the mood.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern - roused by conference, poll, or both - was quick to question the numbers, and turn attention to banks' high profits.

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The Newshub-Reid Research poll on Sunday was teased as one that would send a shiver up the spine of one party. The numbers showed fewer than one in three voters planning to back Labour - 32.3 percent - with National and ACT easily able to form a government.

It was Labour's lowest level of support since Ardern became leader in 2017. Fresh from announcing a childcare support package at the conference, she instead had to answer questions about her own falling popularity in her Monday interviews. She played down the poll's accuracy in comparison to Labour's own polling - brazenly suggesting its infrequency made it less credible - but other polls tell a similar story: the right outpacing the left.

With about a year before the election, no party is popping the bubbly just yet.

National's deputy leader Nicola Willis pointed to the fickle nature of polling and suggested the only certainty was the election would be close.

The smaller parties had a similar perspective. ACT's David Seymour was encouraged and said it showed there was a mood for a change of government. The Green Party was proud of consistently polling above its 2020 election result, but wanted Labour to spend more of its "enormous" political capital.

Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said her party's work did not change from poll to poll; and Winston Peters - whose New Zealand First at 3.3 percent was inching closer to the 5 percent threshold - was confident.

Read more:

Ardern asks banks to reassess record profit-making in light of cost-of-living crisis

Political Editors panel: Poll, Reserve Bank, tax

Ardern taking Labour's drop in polls 'with a grain of salt'…

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Labour claims New Zealand's economy is holding up well compared to many others, but global pressures and new policies may threaten its re-election chances.

"The global environment is enormously challenging at the moment ... they are choppy waters," - Finance Minister Grant Robertson

Labour claims New Zealand's economy is holding up well compared to many others, but global pressures and new policies may threaten its re-election chances.

National has been on the attack, with the cost of living crisis cutting deep, over what it says is wasteful spending and unnecessary taxation - but its own tax plans have left it open to criticism too.

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Labour Finance Minister Grant Robertson cites positive economic indicators - record-low unemployment, low public debt and, though constrained, economic growth - as evidence New Zealand is in a relatively strong financial position.

He acknowledges worker shortages as a main weakness right now, constraining productivity and - as highlighted by the Reserve Bank - driving inflation. The hard-but-necessary border closure decision when Covid-19 hit contributed to this, but Robertson says trades training and loosened immigration will help ease the pressure.

National won't be easing the political pressure over Robertson's spending, however, honing its latest attacks on the proposed social insurance scheme.

The details aren't final, but the plan would see a 2.77 percent levy on pay packets - split between employees and employers - set aside to support worker who lose their job through redundancy, sickness or disability. They would receive 80 percent of their income for up to seven months, capped at $130,000 a year.

It was in part developed at the urging of the Council of Trade Unions, and Business New Zealand.

The latter's chief executive Kirk Hope says they back the principle, but members have had concerns from the start and have been active in responding to the government's discussion document.

Business NZ chief executive Kirk Hope

"We would have a preference for a tax-neutral scheme and secondly that health and disability wouldn't be included in the scheme, as that effectively doubles the cost ... business wants the government to start listening - here's an important opportunity for them," Hope says. …

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast, RNZ Digital Political Reporter Russell Palmer wades into the three waters debate, assessing the situation ahead of local and general elections.

"I still sadly am of the view that a number of ratepayers do not really know what they're paying for their poor water service delivery," - Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta

Water management is shaping up as a major political battleground ahead of local elections next month - and the general election next year.

Opponents and councils decry the government's unpopular proposal or urge caution and delays until the details are settled - but there's little agreement on alternatives, and experts are warning time is running short.

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Auckland mayor Phil Goff, Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta, and National's Local Government spokesperson Simon Watts.

Havelock North's 2016 campylobacter outbreak made more than 8000 people sick and killed at least three, prompting a review of drinking water guidelines from the then-National government.

It was a classic case of crisis prompting a response, but the review only highlighted what we already knew.

Industry body Water NZ says just 64 percent of New Zealanders receive drinking water that consistently meets standards; only about a quarter of wastewater treatment plants are fully compliant; and there's no consistency or national standards for stormwater management.

Any solution would, however, face major funding challenges. While we constantly rely on water for everyday life the infrastructure is, ironically, a dry topic we often think little of.

The Labour government brought in Scotland's Water Industry Commission (WICS) to perform what's believed to be New Zealand's biggest ever assessment of water infrastructure so it could come up with a plan. WICS chief executive Alan Sutherland says there are about 3600 water pollution incidents across the 48 councils - plus Auckland - and the average New Zealand household pays about $1100 a year for three waters services. It's about 20 times the rate of pollution incidents at a cost of 40 percent more than Scotland.

The government's solution, billed as the biggest shake-up in the sector since 1989, was announced by Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta last June: a massive reform programme to amalgamate 67 councils' water services into four large regional, standalone entities with strategic oversight and local voice provided by representative groups of council and iwi members. …

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast NZ Political Reporters Katie Scotcher, Anneke Smith and Giles Dexter explore what the debate about the role of the monarchy in New Zealand - and the possibility of change - could mean for its people.

"If we made an impulsive decision to become a republic tomorrow, then who is the Treaty relationship with?" - Te Matahiapo Safari Hynes

The death of Queen Elizabeth II has prompted an outpouring of grief, but has also revived discussion about New Zealand's ties to the monarchy.

That in turn has raised deeper ongoing questions over the nation's identity, its ties to Britain, and the key role of Māori and the Treaty in such discussions in future.

Listen to the full podcast here

Pomp and ceremony accompanied the formal change in monarch this week, the Queen's eldest son Charles immediately and automatically becoming King after her death. In New Zealand, Cabinet and the Executive Council met 48 hours later to formally acknowledge his accession, with the proclamation then read on the steps of Parliament to a crowd of hundreds with MPs and dignitaries dressed in black.

Such an historic event has not occurred for 70 years. The general consensus is it's too soon after the Queen's death to be talking about changes to New Zealand's constitution, but the event naturally provokes questions over the future.

Other Commonwealth countries have been grappling it with too: Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne confirmed the Caribbean nation will decide within three years whether to become a republic. It's had the opposite effect in Australia, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese - despite earlier promises and having already created a Minister for the Republic - declared there would be no referendum on the matter in his first term.

On this side of the Tasman, former Prime Minister Sir Geoffrey Palmer, a constitutional expert, says if Australia becomes a republic, New Zealand will likely follow suit. While Aotearoa is a constitutional monarchy, he says it is already a "disguised republic": decision-makers are elected by voters, and the monarch rules from 18,000km away, at more than arm's length through the Governor-General.

"It seems to me very difficult if Australia becomes a Republic - as I think is very likely - for New Zealand not to become one, and the thing that people need to understand about that is that the Commonwealth connection is not affected. The majority of the Commonwealth nations are not ones who recognize the Queen or the King as Head of State."

Sir Geoffrey Palmer…

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In Focus on Politics, our political reporter Giles Dexter takes a look at the Government's response to youth crime and talks to those on the ground trying to turn it around.

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast Political Reporter Giles Dexter reviews the government's approach to youth crime, and examines what is missing from the debate.

"We are dealing with that crisis of 'hey a kid's just driven into a dairy' - we can do a lot more to prevent it" - youth worker Aaron Hendry

The government this week launched a week-long media blitz touting its responses to rising youth crime; shifting the rhetoric on a topic the opposition has been targeting for months.

Those on the ground however fear that in rising to their opponents' bait, the government could be ignoring the more difficult early interventions that could make a real difference.

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Law and order - always easily politicised - is again shaping up as a big election topic, an easy stick for the opposition to hit the government with. The latest cudgel: youth crime and ram raids.

Nationwide youth crime is down, but it's up 24 percent in Auckland in the past year. Ram raids in the city have become near-daily news items, notorious in part because they are highly visible - driven by social media.

Police Minister Chris Hipkins is yet to visit a raided dairy but opposition MPs make a point of calling in on them. National and ACT's leaders, Christopher Luxon and David Seymour both referred on Tuesday to recent visits to shop owners.

"I spent time with a shop owner who's been ram raided and broken into three times in four months and they've worked incredibly hard, they've saved a lot of money to be able to get into that business and lo and behold they are attacked by ram raiders and burglars," Luxon said.

The day before, at the post-Cabinet media conference, Justice Minister Kiri Allan had kicked off a series of government announcements aiming to counter such easy hits, announcing new police powers to seize assets from gangs.

"I think it's fair to say that this is one of the areas which we as a government have committed to in terms of getting tough on crimes and indeed the ill-gotten gains that they have received through criminal activities," Allan said.

Justice Minister Kiritapu Allan

The amendment would allow police to restrain property linked to criminal groups if there's suspicion they didn't fund it legitimately.

It would also bolster the Proceeds of Crime Fund, which bankrolls - among projects for more than 40 other ministries and agencies - fog cannons and bollards as ram-raid countermeasures through the Small Retailer Crime Prevention Fund announced in May. …

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast Political Reporter Anneke Smith exposes the vulnerable state of New Zealand's democracy and examines the political response.

"What's good about this country politically is on pretty shaky foundations. It wouldn't be hard to wreck it," - legal expert Tim Kuhner

New Zealand has a "historic opportunity" to reform laws that expose its electoral system to corruption, a legal expert says.

Politics has been dogged by donations scandals, with the Serious Fraud Office currently prosecuting both Labour and National in the High Court.

While some changes are being made ahead of next year's election, they're contested, specific and will come ahead of a sweeping review of the electoral system Timothy Kuhner argues is a rare chance to make more meaningful fixes.

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A fullbright senior scholar in Spain where he studied United States democracy, Kuhner's now an associate professor at the University of Auckland. His report card for Aotearoa's protections against corruption is not positive.

"I assumed, coming here and seeing its reputation for such low levels of corruption, that it was a pretty regulated set of electoral laws ... when I learned that there's no rules in terms of limiting donations or the source of donations besides foreign individuals and entities - and that's been pretty recent that was drastically limited - and seeing that there's really essentially no regulation of the lobbying industry, I was pretty taken aback by that.

"It made me think that what's good about this country politically is on pretty shaky foundations. It wouldn't be hard to wreck it."

He says the ideological battle over the influence of big corporations has played itself out across the world, and has already arrived in New Zealand.

"The results of it are that we lose our ability to conceive of politics as a place where everyone matters and where non-economic values should be aired and respected;  where politics becomes a marketplace, and so everything that isn't really profitable to the people who have the most power economically in society goes into disrepair. That danger has played itself out really well across the world."

Read more:

Electoral changes in the hands of the elected?

Electoral law review sparks demands for faster changes, referendums

Donations trial businessman offered record $33m bail security

Trial: Simon Bridges denies knowing details of donations' source

Andrew Little tells court he was distanced from donations in 'sham donors' trial

Cabinet confirms 'shadow entity' loophole will be closed…

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