Focus on Politics

In today's Focus on Politics, Political Reporter Katie Scotcher looks back on a trade deal both sides found fault with, and ahead to the challenges it still faces.

"It is by no means a done deal ... there's going to be a huge diplomatic effort to push this across the line," - NZ's chief EU trade negotiator Vangelis Vitalis

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in July announced a finalised European Union (EU) trade deal but, after 14 years of lobbying and negotiations, insiders warn more effort will be needed to get it across the line.

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Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Once signed, the agreement would remove tariffs on 91 percent of goods sent to the EU - New Zealand's fourth-largest export market - including kiwifruit, wine, onions, mānuka honey and seafood - increasing to 97 percent within seven years.

The government touted the agreement as a big political win, but while it meant big wins for argiculture and horticulture groups, other primary producers were not happy.

It would deliver up to $120 million worth of new annual export revenue for New Zealand's red meat and dairy sectors from day one, rising to $600m within seven years, but the Meat Industry Association said that amounted to just 0.1 percent of EU consumption in a potential market of nearly 500 million people.

New Zealand dairy farmers and cheese producers were also frustrated: The deal would see New Zealand producers of feta-style cheese forced to change the name within nine years. The rule will also apply to new producers of parmesan and gruyere cheeses, though producers already using those names could continue doing so.

Such "Geographical Indicators" are product names denoting a particular geographical location's quality, reputation or special characteristics, and something the EU was never likely to back down on. 

But European farmers were not happy either - Copa Cogeca represents European farmers and its secretary general Pekka Pesonen said New Zealand had very little to offer the bloc which New Zealand already counts as its biggest import partner.

He said they could consider opposing the deal, but would want to see how import quotas would be managed and how they would work.

"We have, undoubtedly, some sectors where we have a major problem with the proposal or the outcome of the negotiations ... very much focused on dairy, sheep and beef."

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Law and order seems a likely hot topic again in next year's election, but experts say many proposed policies would be ineffective, Political Reporter Anneke Smith writes.

"There's no magic bullet to crime prevention or crime reduction ... political parties can use and abuse crime statistics," - Criminologist Trevor Bradley

Law and order is shaping up as a hot topic for next year's election, but experts say crime is not as bad as it's been portrayed and many proposed policies would be ineffective.

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The government has been under pressure over recent ram raids, daylight burglaries, and an outbreak of gang violence fuelled by tensions between the Tribesmen and Killer Beez in Auckland.

Former Police Minister Poto Williams brought in a $6 million crime prevention fund to help local retailers, and said Aucklanders should "absolutely" expect a decrease in gun crime.

But she struggled to fend off the constant attacks from the opposition benches and, in June, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern brought in one of her most loyal and capable ministers - Chris Hipkins - to replace Williams.

Hipkins promised quick progress and soon announced expanded police search and seize powers along with a broadened definition of intimidation with a firearm offences.

Notably however, he didn't do what opposition party National is calling for - their own election policy - of cracking down on gang insignia and gatherings. Party leader Christopher Luxon has consistently criticised the government as soft on crime, soft on the gangs, and ineffective.

His prospective coalition partner, the ACT Party, announced its own suite of law and order polices in Auckland this week to the support of local businesses. On top of gang-focused policies, the party would increase police powers to seize assets, repeal firearms laws, and reinstate the recently repealed three strikes law with additional inclusion of burglary to the list of 'strike' offences.

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Both parties have continued to characterise crime as rising uncontrollably, but Victoria University of Wellington criminology senior lecturer Trevor Bradley says politicians need a reality check. …

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast Political Reporter Katie Scotcher examines one of the fastest political downfalls in New Zealand's history.

"It's been immensely frustrating as a distraction, but it's important that it's fronted and it's important that we confront it," - National Party leader Christopher Luxon

National's brand-new Tauranga MP Sam Uffindell has his political career hanging in the balance - but the rapid fall from grace has led to further accusations of bullying across the aisle.

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Sworn in at Parliament just the previous week, Uffindell's chances of remaining in the longer term are growing slim.

On Monday, Stuff revealed his fifth-form expulsion from King's College in Auckland for viciously beating a younger student late at night. Uffindell admitted the incident, describing it as the "stupidest thing he'd ever done" and while "by far the worst" incident he had been involved in, he had been a thug and a bully who had hurt other students too.

He told reporters he'd matured in the years since and had worked hard to be a better person, and contacted the victim - in July last year, more than two decades later - to apologise.

Nine months after that apology he was seeking a seat at Parliament, chosen from among four candidates to contest the electorate. He is adamant the two things are not related.

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Timeline: Sam Uffindell, from boarding school to political scandal

Considered a National Party stronghold, Uffindell comfortably won in Tauranga - securing more than 11,000 votes. Upwards of 20 National MPs visited the city during his campaign - among them, Mark Mitchell was keen to highlight Uffindell as proof the party's candidate selection processes had improved.

"I think that when you see the quality of Sam, it's a clear indication of the quality of candidates that we're going to have next year for the general election."…

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Investigative journalist Guyon Espiner sits down for an extended interview with National leader Christopher Luxon. Can a man some thought might join the Labour Party lead National to victory at the next election?

Investigative journalist Guyon Espiner sits down for an extended interview with National leader Christopher Luxon.

Can a man some thought might join the Labour Party lead National to victory at the next election?

Listen to the interview

https://youtu.be/_g6gcsqz3gA

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast Deputy Political Editor Craig McCulloch assesses the Prime Minister's American odyssey.

"It's incredibly important... in this fraught time of global politics... for us to be engaging with like-minded partners" - Jacinda Ardern

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's second overseas trip this year - this time, to the United States - comes in the midst of numerous geopolitical uncertainties.

With Russia waging war on Ukraine and China flexing its power in the Pacific, the US has been repositioning - and New Zealand spies opportunity.

But while Ardern's visit had intended to focus primarily on trade and tourism, a tragic school shooting in Texas has diverted attention and reignited the domestic debate over gun control.

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The prime minister's American engagements began before she had even boarded the plane, joining remotely the launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework with US president Joe Biden and Japan's prime minister Fumio Kishida.

IPEF is not the free trade deal New Zealand would like, but it holds potential, with an intention from its 13 member countries to set shared standards in areas such as the digital economy and supply chains.

The US has been accused of neglecting the Indo-Pacific in recent years, and China's aggressive relationship building in the Pacific looms large as motivation.

Beijing's recent security deal with the Solomons and the Chinese foreign minister's tour to sell a region-wide agreement have rattled the Pacific islands' traditional allies New Zealand and Australia.

A US return to the trans-Pacific trade pact Donald Trump abandoned in 2017 - now known as the CPTPP - would be the ideal for New Zealand, but domestic American politics make that currenly implausible.

Ardern is not giving up on the idea however, and she has some stateside supporters. At one of her first events in New York, US Chamber of Commerce vice president Myron Brilliant implored Ardern to encourage further US involvement in our part of the world.

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The trip took on a more sombre tone after 19 students and two teachers were shot dead at Robb Elementary School in Texas, and another 17 people wounded…

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast Deputy Political Editor Craig McCulloch runs the numbers on the Budget and its political implications.

"The here and now matters, but so too does tomorrow" - Finance Minister Grant Robertson

The government has become used to crisis Budgets after two years of grappling with Covid-19, but 2022 has seen a new crisis rear its head - the cost of living - and it may yet prove a tougher beast to tame.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson had billed Thursday's Budget as one focused on long-term security - chiefly health and climate change - but the recent months of red-hot inflation meant he knew he had to look to the short-term too.

The trick was how to deliver some immediate relief to New Zealanders while not inadvertently making the crisis worse. This, then, was a Budget in search of balance.

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At the core is the $1 billion cost-of-living package, a naked appeal to middle New Zealanders not already receiving support from the government but still feeling the pinch, expected to number more than two million people.

The lion's share goes to a one-off $350 sweetener for those who earned under $70,000 last year - but not for beneficiaries of the Winter Energy Payment.

Road user charges, fuel excise cuts and half-price public transport were also extended another two months, the latter made permanent for those with a Community Services Card.

Treasury was critical of a lack of attention to New Zealand's poorest, suggesting a more targeted form of support and warning the payment could add to inflation.

National leader Christopher Luxon was quick to dismiss the payment as a token gesture and bandaid solution, labelling it the government's "backwards Budget".

ACT's David Seymour was even more scathing, saying those on middle incomes had been shafted, while the Greens and Māori Party feared it was those most in need being left behind.

Read more:

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Health may have grabbed fewer headlines, but the whopping $11.1b boost to the sector is the long-lasting medicine to go with Robertson's spoonful of sugar.

Some $1.8b to wipe away 13 years of deficits here, another $1.8b for the new Health NZ there, $1.3b for hospital revamps, and a sprinkling of $168m for hauora commissioning from the new Māori Health Authority. …

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast Political Reporter Anneke Smith explores the border reopening, immigration changes, and the response.

"The capacity really isn't there, and it means they opened up a visa category in full knowledge that it was going to suck the living daylights out of the resources," - Immigration advisor Katy Armstrong

Call it a reset, a rebalance or re-jig - the government has finally unveiled its new vision for immigration in a post-pandemic world.

Many industries are welcoming the news borders will open for non-visa waiver countries from August, but with it comes changes.

This shift in focus aims to leave behind the reliance on cheap migrant workers in favour of filling high-skill, high-income roles - but the plan has copped criticisms of unfairness and poor implementation before it's even begun.

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As part of the reset, employers wanting to bring workers in on temporary visas must apply for accreditation, pass a good character test and pay at least the median hourly wage.

Some sectors will get a temporary exemption with a lowered wage threshold; and there will also be a 'Green list' of 85 in-demand roles with a fast-track to residency.

National's Immigration spokesperson Erica Stanford questions how the system will cope, and says the government has resorted to a panicked shifting of resources.

"When we left office it took 21 days to get a visitor visa," she says. "They've had far fewer visas to process over the last two years ... they still take five months and they've got all those people doing the resident 2021 visa.

" took every available resource and put in on the resident 2021 visa, which as you know is 110,000 applications, then the Prime minister said 'hey, we're going to open the borders' and he went 'uh oh, we don't have enough staff to do that'."

Minister Kris Faafoi insists migrants will always play an important role in New Zealand, and is confident Immigration NZ is ready for the influx of migrants - but advisors say they've been burned before.

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Two-tier visa system a 'kick in the guts' - migrant workers' rights group …

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast, Political Editor Jane Patterson sits down with the Finance Minister Grant Robertson and National's Nicola Willis to preview this month's Budget.

"We've got to get through this 2022 that's difficult, but we also know that we want a health system that's operating really well in '23 and '24 too," - Grant Robertson

It's Budget time again, but 2022 brings a number of major economic challenges.

These include massive costs pressures affecting households, business and government; ongoing supply chain shocks and disruption made worse by the ongoing war in Ukraine; housing unaffordability through the roof; expectations around climate change, poverty and inequality and funding large reforms like health.

National's finance spokesperson Nicola Willis says the biggest challenge for Finance Minister Grant Robertson is the cost of living crisis.

RNZ Political Editor Jane Patterson sat down for a chat with Willis and Robertson, ahead of this Labour government's fifth Budget.

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Willis says the cost of living is affecting every New Zealander, and inflation is a robber at our doors.

She says she would expect direct income support for households, but with more tax being collected by the government than before, and argues the government has a track record of wasteful spending.

"The presumption there would have to be that he thinks he can spend New Zealanders money better than they can, and I just disagree with that premise.

"Examples like $51 million being spent on consultants for an $800 million cycling bridge that hasn't gone ahead talk to a culture and government that's not great, but it's also about spending that hasn't been well enough planned and targeted on results."

She says National's proposal for cutting taxes - including the 39 percent top tax bracket for earnings above $180,000 - strikes a fair balance.

"Grant Robertson this year is collecting around $14 billion more in income tax than when he came to office, our package would cost $1.7 billion ... that would mean the average household would benefit to the tune of $1600 a year. We think that's meaningful."

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast, Political Reporter Katie Scotcher assesses where the government's planning is for new and potentially more deadly variants.

"This is a preparedness exercise, it's going to be a high-level plan ... it's not going to be as prescriptive as the other plans we have rolled out in response to Covid because we can't crystal ball gaze about precisely what will turn up." - Ayesha Verrall

When the government relaxed Covid-19 public health measures, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was clear some may not be gone for good, kept "in the back pocket" in case of new and dangerous variants.

With the threat of those variants looming, Associate Minister of Health Ayesha Verrall has asked Ministry of Health officials to draft up a plan outlining the response.

As well as being ready to roll some restrictions out again, it also means monitoring for new variants through genomic sequencing.

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With Covid-19 continuing to spread, new variants are an inevitability, and Verrall says we need a systematic way of assessing the threat they pose and what the response should be.

The World Health Organisation and other countries like Singapore and the UK are among those working on similar plans, she says, but New Zealand needs to be prepared to be part of the response, and match it to the severity of any new variant.

"We've taken steps to ... reduce down measures as we've had more protection due to vaccination and then with Omicron - because the clinical severity was less - we were able to go to the traffic lights framework, which is less restrictive."

Ministry of Health chief science advisor has been part of the team involved in the planning, and says new dominant variants are generally likely to be more infectious, but a very high severity could reduce infectiousness. Omicron's low severity means worse outcomes cannot be ruled out, however.

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Covid-19 modeller Dion O'Neale hopes improvements can be made to ventilation systems and practices, as well as a greater emphasis on masks.

ACT Leader David Seymour wants improved testing, tracing, PPE provision, vaccine rollout and ICU capacity.

Previous interventions like QR contact tracing and vaccine passes also cannot be ruled out. National Party Covid-19 Response Spokesperson Chris Bishop supports planning for new variants, but describes those as a "severe" response he hopes we've seen the end of. …

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In today's Focus on Politics podcast, Political Editor Jane Patterson looks past the spectacle of Ardern's first official trip since Covid-19 to the geopolitical tensions beneath.

"It is about demonstrating through global action that there will be swift response should that occur in any other region or country." - Jacinda Ardern

Pomp and ceremony, against a backdrop of torrid global events and shifting political allegiances.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has taken her first official trip since the pandemic to New Zealand's fourth- and fifth- biggest trading partners Singapore and Japan.

The trip has featured lavish dinners, dancing kiwifruit, announcements on working holiday visas and climate change, all under the constant threat of Covid-19 - but regional security and its implications have also been high on the agenda.

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The security pact between China and Solomon Islands - leaked last month and formalised this week - has been met with consternation and alarm by countries like New Zealand, Australia and the US.

A leaked draft suggested it would allow China to deploy military and police forces to the Solomons, and make ship visits, but the final version has not been released and China and Solomon Islands both deny it would open the door to a Chinese military presence in Honiara.

Ardern and Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta have said New Zealand sees no need for such a deal, referring back to the regional relationship and agreements among the neighbouring Pacific nations.

These include the long running RAMSI mission of Australian and New Zealand troops sent to Solomon Islands to curb civil unrest, common membership of the Pacific Islands Forum, and the regional Biketawa Declaration which allows members to respond to breaches of governance, democratic freedoms and indigenous rights.

"In our view the need simply isn't there. If there is an issue which is not being addressed all we'd ask is a dialogue within the Pacific to address that," Ardern said in Singapore after news of the deal broke.

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Elected in October, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has taken a hardline stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He and Ardern met for the first time on Thursday, emerging later to announce an agreement to share more classified information. …

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