Why do so many economic and business forecasts fail to correctly map the future? Adam Shaw asks why so many recessions take us by surprise and why the failure of certain forecasts should be a cause of celebration, not despair. He examines the role of complexity and groupthink and how technological advance can scupper the best laid forecasts. Do we, as consumers, invest too much faith in forecasts? And is there anything forecasters can do to ensure their pronouncements are more reliable? 
Producer: Rosamund Jones 
(Image: Adam Shaw at a pool table. Credit: BBC)

Forecasting: How to Map the Future

Insights into the business world - featuring content from BBC Radio 4's In Business programme, and also Global Business from the BBC World Service.

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For the final programme of the series, John Murphy returns to a selection of businesses that have come through this far. A fabric and haberdashery shop, a fruit farmer and a micro-pub. What’s their story of survival, what did they change and what of the future? The potential difficulties and pitfalls, are not over. Presenter: John Murphy
Producer: Phoebe Keane
Series editor: Penny Murphy

Still in Business

The pandemic and the resulting recession have led to widespread calls to recognise that we now have a once in a generation opportunity to re-think how we put the economy back together again. Research shows we can help our economy flourish again by prioritising spending on environmentally friendly initiatives. From electric bikes, to eco-friendly cement, to a new type of plastic that could heat our homes, fill our mattresses and cushion our running trainers, Adam Shaw meets the businesses that could benefit from this type of recovery plan and could help us build back better.  Presenter: Adam Shaw
Producer: Phoebe Keane

Building Back Better

As Brexit talks between the European Union and the UK got under way earlier this year, before anyone was using the word “pandemic”, Caroline Bayley began following two companies which both export to Britain– one in France, one in Germany – to see how they were planning for trade with the UK outside of the EU. One is a vineyard and wine business in Bordeaux and the other makes components for kitchen furniture and cabinets in Germany. Both were knocked sideways by the coronavirus but have still had to prepare for future business with the UK with or without a trade deal.  Presenter/Producer: Caroline Bayley

Wine, Widgets and Brexit

Politicians keep promising more trees – seen as good for the environment and for fighting climate change. Trees are also big business sustaining vital rural jobs. So will lots of new planting keep everyone happy? Chris Bowlby explores forestry’s future in one of its key locations – Northumberland. He visits the huge forest at Kielder, and a rural factory turning thousands of logs into essential materials for millions of British homes. But there are problems too – a thicket of bureaucracy surrounding planting, and questions about what sort of trees really do bring environmental gain. Presenter: Chris Bowlby
Producer: John Murphy

The Tree Trade

Robots and Artificial Intelligence have been moving into our workplaces for years. But is now the time that they will become fully established and take over some jobs entirely? Is the march of the robots going to get louder now that everything seems to be changing ? David Baker investigates.  Presenter: David Baker
Producer: Sandra Kanthal Credit: Getty Creative / iStock / PhonlamaiPhoto

Forecasting: How to Map the Future

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