Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, recently worried about a world where only 30% of jobs become automated, leading to class tensions between the automated and non-automated. Instead, he predicts that nearly all jobs will be automated simultaneously, putting everyone "in the same boat." However, based on my experience spanning AI research (including first author papers at COLM / NeurIPS and attending MATS under Neel Nanda), robotics, and hands-on manufacturing (including machining prototype rocket engine parts for Blue Origin and Ursa Major), I see a different near-term future.

Since the GPT-4 release, I've evaluated frontier models on a basic manufacturing task, which tests both visual perception and physical reasoning. While Gemini 2.5 Pro recently showed progress on the visual front, all models tested continue to fail significantly on physical reasoning. They still perform terribly overall. Because of this, I think that there will be an interim period where a significant [...]

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Outline:

(01:28) The Evaluation

(02:29) Visual Errors

(04:03) Physical Reasoning Errors

(06:09) Why do LLM's struggle with physical tasks?

(07:37) Improving on physical tasks may be difficult

(10:14) Potential Implications of Uneven Automation

(11:48) Conclusion

(12:24) Appendix

(12:44) Visual Errors

(14:36) Physical Reasoning Errors

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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