Research Status: Written & researched quickly. I think the key point is fairly simple and obvious. I relied on Claude to help with rewriting.

There's been a growing interest in predicting when various products or jobs will be "fully automated." Will we soon have popular movies, books, or even CEOs that are entirely AI-generated?

Some very quickly-found links:
- https://manifold.markets/ChaseStevens/will-an-aigenerated-paper-be-accept
- https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/will-aigenerated-art-win-a-major-tr
- https://manifold.markets/probajoelistic/-by-2026-will-any-fully-aigenerated
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/sherzododilov/2024/01/11/can-ai-become-your-next-ceo/

It's an intriguing question, but I believe its definition is slippier than some realize. Here's why.

First, the idea of "full automation" on complex tasks (movies, books, CEO duties) is somewhat of a false dichotomy. In practice, automation exists on a spectrum, with diminishing returns at the extreme. Consider self-driving cars. Even the most advanced autonomous vehicles still have remote human monitors who can intervene if necessary. This human involvement might be significant at first (one intervention for every few miles, in the [...]

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

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