Geopolitically Correct

Russia's Negotiating Strategy in Ukraine: Why Moscow Isn't Rushing to the Table | Geopolitically CorrectAs Washington pushes for a ceasefire in Ukraine, what is shaping Russia’s strategic calculus? In this episode of Geopolitically Correct, I look at the systemic and domestic drivers behind Moscow’s stance — and why the Kremlin believes time is on its side.We explore:How Western political fatigue, Europe's defence gaps, and China’s economic support embolden RussiaWhy Putin’s domestic position and the siloviki’s worldview discourage compromiseThe risks of a rushed ceasefire for European and global securityWhat governments and businesses must prepare for as negotiations unfold📌 Timestamps:00:00 – Introduction01:09 – Chapter 1: The Systemic Factors Driving Russia's Negotiations Behaviour07:04 – Chapter 2: The Domestic Factors Driving Russia's Negotiations Behaviour09:24 – Chapter 3: Geostrategic Advice for Governments and Businesses11:04 – Conclusion📖 Recommended Reading: Zbigniew Brzezinski’s The Grand Chessboard (link mentioned in the video).💬 I'd love to hear your perspective. What do you agree or disagree with? Share your thoughts in the comments!🔔 Subscribe to Geopolitically Correct so you don't miss Part Three next week, where we’ll examine Ukraine’s strategic options.#UkraineWar #Russia #Geopolitics #EuropeanSecurity #GeopoliticallyCorrect

On March 23, 2025, Bloomberg reported, citing sources within the US administration, that the White House was seeking to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine by 20 April. Now last week, US special envoy Steve Witkoff flew to Moscow for direct talks with President Vladimir Putin. After the meeting, Witkoff told reporters that the Russian leader seemed open to a “lasting peace” agreement. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov played down expectations, warning that reaching an agreement “will not be easy” So what can we expect now? Could a ceasefire be reached by the end of the week?

To answer that, we need to dig deeper - into the systemic and domestic factors shaping the behaviour of the United States, Russia and Ukraine. These forces are essential to understanding what's driving each actor to the negotiating table, and what could ultimately make or break a deal.

Everyone is talking about the US tariff policy at the moment. First tariffs on basically every country in the world, now a 90-day pause and 145% tariffs on China. But I think there is an underlying message in all this chaos. One that also relates to this week's theme of long-term US strategy in Europe. Countries around the world will increasingly be forced to choose: align with the US or align with China. We are witnessing the irreversible bifurcation of the global system - finance, currencies, trade, economics, commodities, tech-military - how much space remains between these two poles remains to be seen. It also fits into the broader long-term US strategy - particularly in Europe. And that's the focus of this video. Here’s what you’ll learn:

◾️Why Washington is recalibrating its global priorities

◾️How Brzezinski, Rome, and the Monroe Doctrine offer strategic lessons

◾️What the U.S. pivot means for Europe’s defense and economic autonomy

◾️What governments and businesses must do to adapt

This episode goes beyond headlines—unpacking the grand strategic logic of offshore balancing, economic decoupling, and why geopolitics—not globalization—is now the bottom line.

📌 Timestamps:

00:00 – Introduction

01:20 – The Strategic Pivot: From Europe to Asia

05:02 – Historical Lessons: Empires and Grand Strategy

07:04 – Advice for Governments and Businesses

💡 Geopolitics is now the bottom line. Whether you're in government, business, or simply trying to make sense of today’s power shifts—this is essential viewing.🔗 Subscribe to this channel for more weekly insights. 📬 Get the free newsletter here: https://geopoliticallycorrect.substack.com/

What’s the medium-term U.S. strategy for Ukraine? In this second part of our three-part series, we dive deep into how Washington plans to stabilize the region without getting entangled — all while shaping Europe’s future.Last week, we explored America’s short-term strategic focus. This week, we examine the evolving medium-term objectives: from ceasefire diplomacy to cautious containment.Here’s what you’ll learn in this video:◾️The U.S. medium-term game plan for Ukraine◾️Why the U.S. can’t afford to disengage◾️What this means for European stability◾️Advice for governments and businessesThis series is part of Geopolitically Correct, where I cut through the noise and unpack the deeper forces shaping European geopolitics.

📌 Timestamps:00:00 – Introduction01:23 – The Medium-Term Game Plan04:40 – Historical Lessons: Brezinski08:00 – Advice for Governments and Businesses⸻🔔 Stay Connected:Subscribe for weekly analysis: https://geopoliticallycorrect.substack.comFollow on Twitter/X: @y_scheidegger

In the swirl of events and speculation, it's been difficult to keep a clear head. Yet it is at moments like these that clear-eyed analysis is most important.

This week's episode is the first in a three-part series in which I will present my interpretation of current US strategy and modus operandi in Ukraine.

Given the complexity, I'll break this down into three distinct articles:

Week 1: a short-term strategic analysis

Week 2: a look at the medium-term trajectory of US Ukraine policy under the current administration

Week 3: a broader examination of America's long-term objectives in Ukraine - and Europe more broadly

So let's begin - with the key question: What are the United States' short-term interests in Ukraine?

In Geopolitically Correct, I unpack the history, strategy, and implications for governments and businesses — cutting through the noise to provide clear analysis on European geopolitics.

In This Edition:

What the Current U.S. Actions Tell Us About Short-Term Strategy in Ukraine

Historical Parallels: Korea, Vietnam, and the Push for Peace in Ukraine

Geostrategic Advice for Governments and Businesses

Looking at the current expert debate on European security and its future, two arguments stand out. One is that the war in Ukraine is only the beginning of a wider war in Europe. That Russia has imperial ambitions and, if not deterred by Europe and NATO, could attack the Baltic states next.

Others, however, argue that Russia has only a strategic interest in keeping Ukraine out of NATO and the Western sphere of influence, but no further territorial ambitions. A prominent and often criticised proponent of this view is Professor John Mearsheimer.

I think it is worth looking at both narratives and arguments and assessing how factually grounded they are. Causal explanations cannot be confused with justifications. But the narrative one subscribes to has policy implications for defence and security. One leads to billions being spent on European rearmament. This is money that will then be lacking in other areas such as social spending, education, etc. So the question is: Does Russia really have imperial ambitions in Europe?

In Geopolitically Correct, I unpack the history, strategy, and implications for governments and businesses — cutting through the noise to provide clear analysis on European geopolitics.

In This Edition:

• Two Narratives In 2025

• Lessons from History: The Sowjet Doctrine and the Case of Finland

• Geostrategic Advice for Governments and Businesses

Washington is calling for greater burden-sharing in Europe, and European fears of US disengagement dominate current public discourse. But adjusting military commitments does not mean abandonment. From Nixon’s Guam Doctrine to today's transactional foreign policy, the transatlantic partnership has weathered strategic recalibrations while remaining vital to both American and European security.
📌 Key topics:
- The US is Rebalancing, Not Retreating from Europe
- Lessons from History: The 1970s: Nixon, Kissinger, and the Guam Doctrine
- Geostrategic Advice for Governments and Businesses
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The suspension of US military aid to Ukraine and Washington’s increasing push for a negotiated settlement signal a major shift in US strategy. But what’s driving this pivot? And what does the US stand to gain from a rapid peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow?

Referenced article by Douglas Murray in this video: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-maga-movement-is-wrong-on-ukraine/

At a time when hard power dominates European geopolitics, failing to think strategically means falling behind. Geopolitically Correct unpacks the history, strategy, and implications for governments and businesses.

📌 In This Edition:

00:00 Introduction

00:46 From Geopolitical Pillar to Strategic Liability: Washington’s Changing View of Ukraine

04:30 The Korean Precedent: Coerced Peace and the Future of Ukraine

06:12 Geostrategic Implications: What Governments & Businesses Should Expect

🎯 Want to understand what’s next? Follow Geopolitically Correct for expert insights!

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🇩🇪 Germany’s Elections—What’s Next for Europe? 🇪🇺

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Last weekend, Germans headed to the polls to decide the country’s political future. With Ukraine peace talks approaching but no clear framework in place, the role of Germany’s next government is critical. How Berlin positions itself politically, militarily, and economically will directly influence Europe’s approach to the next phase of the war in Ukraine.

The key question: What do the German election results mean for European security and the war in Ukraine?

📌 In This Edition:

🔹 Will Germany step up on European security?

🔹 What does this election mean for the war in Ukraine?

🔹 Geostrategic insights for governments & businesses

In an era where hard power dictates European geopolitics, failing to think strategically means falling behind. Geopolitically Correct breaks down the history, strategy, and implications behind Germany’s election and its impact on global affairs.

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#Germany #Europe #Ukraine #Geopolitics #GermanyElection #Berlin #NATO #EU #Russia #GlobalPolitics

Trump and Putin are preparing to negotiate Ukraine’s future—without Europe at the table. The U.S. is making deals, Russia is securing its interests, and European capitals are left watching from the sidelines.

This isn’t just about diplomacy — it’s a wake-up call. Europe has relied on alliances, institutions, and soft power for decades. In an era of raw power politics, that is no longer enough.

Chapters:

(00:00) – Introduction: How did Europe get here?

(01:00) – What’s Happening: The Return of Hard Power

(02:25) – Thucydides’ Warning: Lessons from History

(04:50) – The Impact on Business & Markets

(05:50) – Conclusion: Europe’s Choice – Act or Be Acted Upon

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