Hello,
And happy final email of the year!
Welcome to the inaugural issue of GOOD YEAR: my predictions for the year ahead. A list of what brands should be watching in 2025.
Unlike a typical issue, most of these links lead back to past GOOD THINKING issues so you can dive deeper into each topic. It’s a rabbit hole wonderland.
Each prediction comes with a counter-prediction: the pendulum swing. These two realities will live simultaneously, sometimes appealing to the same consumer—it’s a wild and exciting time.
In the podcast episode, we dive deep into each of these, unpacking them more. It’s not just a reading of the list but a guide to help you understand each prediction more.
Let’s dive in!
CULTURE
TABOOS WILL BE TABOO // The great destigmatization is underway. Menopause, sobriety, and polyamory emerged from the shadows in 2024. In 2025, more will emerge from the shadows.
* Male fertility is going to get its moment in the spotlight.
* Silver sexuality will stop giving us the ick. Silver-focused lubes, sexy Silvers, etc.
* Platonic parenting and solo parenting get normalized.
* The childless-by-choice conversation will get bigger.
* Promiscuity and hypersexuality replace twee, little bows.
* Steroid use gets its cobwebs dusted off.
The pendulum swing?
It seems pretty clear that ‘traditional’ values have an in-road next year. Think: More trad wives, big broods, and marriages under 20.
F&B
BEST OVER BETTER-FOR-YOU // After 2-3 years of faux recession, people are over austerity measures. We’re entering decadence. This is under F&B but it will emerge across all categories.
* Last week I said ‘Boom Boom’ was coming and I meant it.
* More parties, more over-the-top cakes.
* Brands with butlers for influencers.
* Steak & Cocktail regaining their place as America’s favorite couple.
* Ultra-luxe Sephora dupes and protein-maxing Erewhon-like stores.
* Non-alc will focus less on ‘good for you’ and more on maximum enjoyment.
The pendulum swing?
Better-for-you continues, but it’s turned up to 10. Whole foods and food as medicine become a bigger conversation. The supplement backlash begins.
DRUGS & BOOZE
DRUG-INDUCED SOBRIETY // While it’s not immediately clear how this will affect brands, GLP-1’s use as an addiction recovery tool will, no doubt, have major ramifications.
* Addiction centers, much like weight loss centers, struggle.
* Non-alc surges. Spirits-alts and N/A beers primarily.
* Hard drug use could rise—the morning-after pill for bad decisions is here.
The pendulum swing?
An increasing desire for indulgence and boundary-pushing will continue. More brands get ok smoking. Zyn use rises. Ayahuasca, shrooms, and microdosing LSD mainstream. Think: less adaptogens, more stimulants.
SILVERS
SILVER SPEND // Silvers finally get brands’ attention. And the perception of this demographic changes for good.
* Retirement gets rebranded. ‘What new heights can I reach’ mentality grows.
* Out with the ‘aged’ vibes.
* Intergenerational living emerges as a trend to watch.
* Silvers gyms emerge—lifting weights versus withering away is the energy.
* Brands are forced to build Silver strategies and Alpha strategies.
* Elder homes get overhauled. Out with the flower wallpaper, in with sleek and BrightWheel for elder homes.
The pendulum swing?
Old people will still be getting old. Despite them living longer and fuller lives than prior generations, there will be a bigger elderly population than ever. The changing face of healthcare will become a focus for a lot of unexpected brands.
ALPHAS & ZS
ALPHA ZONE // Designated spaces and experiences for alpha will become more popular as brands begin to take an interest in this consumer.
* Sephora lucked into being an ‘alpha zone’ but more brands will do it deliberately.
* Pop-ups get timed for Alphas school breaks.
* Alpha services, like Super Awesome, will expand.
The pendulum swing?
The backlash from parents towards brands ‘marketing’ to Alphas continues. Brands will have to find a balance and a messaging strategy that works.
RETAIL
RETAIL REDEFINED // AI agents and shopping directly on AI platforms will redefine the purpose of stores, including e-comm.
* Experiential moves in-store.
* Retail residencies with Substackers / influencers providing styling become a thing.
* Substackers and creators set up their own pop-ups.
* E-comm sites will become Substack-like. Their purpose will no longer be selling.
* Curation of like-minded brands on a brand’s site will become commonplace.
The pendulum swing?
The rise of not shopping. The under-consumption trend grows.
TECH
AI SEARCH WILL MAINSTREAM // Early adopters have already moved away from traditional search. In the next year, ‘old search’ will feel like a flip-phone mentality.
* Consumers will start building their own GPTs trained on their tastes and preferences.
* Brands will have writers on staff again. Not ‘brand copywriters’, but ‘niche journalists.’
* Conversational search becomes the norm. ‘Does a white dress for a woman will big boobs, who doesn’t want to look like a prairie bride exist for under $250’ will be the style of search we get used to.
* Personalized search/offerings become table-stakes.
The pendulum swing?
A deep desire for human experiences grows. Raves, in-person gatherings, and sharing a human perspective will be prized. Talking on the phone—gasp—might make a comeback. Human intuition will be praised. And we get clearer on what the value of being human truly is.
SPORT
EXTREME SPORTS // Sports takes over retail as the most ‘experiential’ vertical. And the cross-pollination of sports, food, fashion, CPG, and wellness will continue.
* ‘Sports Malls’ emerge. Shop, play, stay.
* Sports tourism booms.
* Sports experiences in every sport and every city.
* Premium and unusual locations for more sports increase.
The pendulum swing?
Sport in solitude. Aligned with the evidence that alone time is a critical component of mental health, solo and solitary sports gain popularity. Solo ping pong. Solo hikes. Swimming in remote locations. Silent walks/runs. Think: personal bests over leaderboards.
WELLNESS & BEAUTY
ENHANCED LOOK // Everything is getting a second look. Clean beauty, chemicals, food, healthcare—everything. Consumers are getting more savvy and have PhD-level research capacity at their fingertips.
* Consumers take a closer look at active ingredients.
* ‘Clean’ is out. The supplement and ingredient ‘purity’ conversation explodes.
* Enhancements get an enhancement. Filler is out. Mini arm lifts and stealth facelifts are in.
* Ultra-processed foods and food additives get more government oversight.
* Healthcare gets an enhanced, yassified look.
The pendulum swing?
Woo-woo will remain and become more extreme. ‘High-vibrational’ will get a bigger look. Temascals and wellness experiences that connect mind, body, and soul will get bigger. Bathhouses will continue to surge in the US.
TRAVEL
ONE-STOP-SHOPS // People want more out of their travel. It’s no longer just about a ‘foodie’ trip, a ‘golf destination’ or ‘a spa holiday’. Multi-sensory, multi-faceted experiences will emerge.
* Demand for one-stop-shop hospitality and wellness grows.
* Concierge service will re-emerge bigger and better than ever.
* Travel agents regain popularity.
* Travel immersions take off.
The pendulum swing?
Happenstance travel. No plans. No lists. Pure discovery.
FUN FOR THE YEAR
* LONG HOLIDAYS // Black Friday, Back-to-School and Christmas/the holidays will continue to get drawn out into month-long affairs with many chapters.
The pendulum swing? Private sales. Think ‘only for my subscribers’ deals.
* PERFECT PARTNERS // Cross-category collaborations will continue. Picture collective ‘pop-ups’, cross-category advent calendars, etc.
The pendulum swing? Collaboration fatigue gets louder.
* PLAYGROUND MINDSET // Fun becomes a central strategy for many brands. More experiences. More cafes. More books. More brands hiring ‘show creators.’
The pendulum swing? Ultra-conservative, borderline puritanical brands come out of the woodwork. After all, bibles are back.
That’s all, folx.
I can’t thank you enough for all the love, energy, and support you’ve given the letter this year. I started it with no expectations, but if I did have any secret ones, they were blown out of the water.
If you feel like giving me a gift this year, give this a share.
Drop any and all questions into the comments!
I can’t wait to be back in 2025, bigger and better than year. I’ll be back in your inbox early January.
Happy holidays and happy new year!
-Chris
If you read this and liked it, that little heart is there for that. The algo and I appreciate it.
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