Three years ago, back in 2022, I wrote "A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability." Well, 2025 is almost over now, so let's see how well I did! I'll go over each individual prediction, and assign myself a subjective grade based on how close I got to the truth.

Predictions for 2022

• Post written by AI with minimal prompting reaches 30+ upvotes on LessWrong
  • Score: probably D. I didn't see any high-karma posts from 2022 which were obviously AI-generated, but frankly, I didn't look very hard. I remember reading a few experimental AI-generated posts, but they were all downvoted pretty badly at the time. There were a lot of posts which included smaller excerpts from AI text, but that's not really what I was aiming for, so I'll say I failed this prediction.
• AI can regularly fool a randomly-selected (from American population), non-expert judge in a 10-minute Turing test.
  • Score: D-. What in the world was I thinking with this one?? I suspect I severely over-updated on stories like Blake Lemoine claiming Google's AI was sentient, not realizing that a chatbot seeming "intelligent" is very different from an AI seeming "human" to [...]

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Outline:

(00:34) Predictions for 2022

(01:44) Predictions for 2023

(06:58) Predictions for 2024

(13:06) Predictions for 2025

(17:49) Conclusion

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.