This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Grant Engelbart, Vice President, Investment Strategist at Carson Group. Grant Engelbart serves as Vice President, Investment Strategist for Carson Group. In this role, Grant is part of the team responsible for the management of the Carson Investment platform, In-house Carson model portfolios, and contribution to the overall asset allocation viewpoints of the investment team. Before joining Carson, Grant was the Deputy CIO of ETFs and SMAs at Brinker Capital Investments (part of Orion Advisor Solutions). At Brinker, Grant was part of the discretionary investment team responsible for many assets across investment vehicles, and managed accounts ranging from individual 401ks to large university endowments. Prior to joining Brinker Capital Investments, Grant held positions at CLS Investments (which has since rebranded to Brinker Capital Investments), TD Ameritrade, and State Street Corporation. Grant received his Bachelor of Science in finance from the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. He is a CFA® Charter holder, holds the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation, DACFP Certificate in Blockchain and Digital Assets, Candriam Certificate in Sustainable and Responsible Investing and Series 65 registration. He is a member of the CFA® Society of Nebraska and the CAIA Chicago chapter. He has contributed to numerous publications and is an active contributor to commentary related to the ETF industry. Grant has three young children with his wife Jessica. He’s passionate about any University of Nebraska sports team, golf, basketball and most outside activities. He is actively involved in his local church and other Omaha-based organizations. Grant Engelbart is not registered with Cetera Advisor Networks LLC.

Key Takeaways

• [03:00] - Grant’s professional background and more on his current role at Carson Group
• [06:07] - Many of the “Bro Bubble” members are meaningfully off their highs. Why has sentiment shifted so drastically in just one quarter? Are these meme stocks a pump and dumb type scheme fueled by the second coming of Wall Street Bets?
• [07:50] - Will the “Bro Bubble” popping kick off a broader market shift or is it just an example of the air coming out of some of the bad momentum names?
• [09:25] - Does Grant think the bubble did pop for the “Bro Bubble” names or did it just lose a little layer? Could these potentially re-inflate and, if so, what are the catalysts needed for this re-inflation to occur?
• [11:20] - What are some of the catalysts encouraging the outflow from the “Bro Bubble” stocks into international markets and might this trend continue?
• [13:47] - How should advisors think about positioning their portfolios in light of the Trump administration's commitment to sweeping policy changes?
• [18:37] - Base case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is
• [20:57] - Bad case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is
• [23:07] - Good case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is
• [25:32] - Are there any other risks our listeners should be considering?

 Quotes

[09:29] ~ “At a certain point because of Deepseek, which is one the early catalysts for this  in some ways, the vulnerability to AI names, which not all these Bro Bubble names are not AI plays per se, but there's involvement there. Then the relationship with the Trump White House, and whatever was happening post election for these names, I think both of those have created an environment where you can’t price Palantir at 240x earnings….I wouldn’t say [there has been]...a complete, utter, ridiculous pop, but there’s an adjustment to a more realistic expectation for these companies going forward. ” ~ Grant Engelbart

[12:22] ~ “The trend reversal in international stocks is really important, emerging markets is part of that as well, and we have brought our emerging market and international stock weights back to neutral, it was underweight for a period of time, mostly due to the dollar strength. They have potentially fiscal tailwinds behind them now, inflation is in a better place in many cases and then there’s a valuation tailwind for international stocks in a big way as well, so…that’s definitely an area to keep, at a minimum, at neutral weight in your portfolios.” ~ Grant Engelbart

Links

• Grant Engelbart on LinkedIn
• Carson Group
• Economic Outlook
• Insights
• “Sirius” by The Alan Parsons Project

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Disclosure(s)

Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org. 

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