Weighing The Risks

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Raj Udeshi, Founder of FarmClub and, previously, the founder of Hidden Levers. As a serial entrepreneur, Mr. Udeshi has a history of bootstrapped success. Now fully immersed in a 1,400-acre pistachio farm for the past 4 years, Mr. Udeshi has turned his attention to the things that matter most – security for food, water, and energy. Before entering the agriculture sector, Mr. Udeshi was Founder and CRO of a HiddenLevers, a fintech platform which was acquired after 11 years in business (acquired by Orion in 2021). Mr. Udeshi stayed on as Chief Innovation Officer and then transitioned into farming. He is now the Founder and Managing Member of FarmClub, a nascent agriculture innovation incubator in Central Valley, California. Mr. Udeshi received a JD from Pepperdine School of Law and a BA from Northwestern University, with work experience in appellate law, sales + trading, fintech, new media, and visual arts. 

Key Takeaways

• [03:16] - More on Raj’s background and his work at Hidden Levers.
• [11:56] - Learn more about FarmClub, the new agriculture company that Raj founded.
• [16:16] - Learn more about the Hidden Levers’ war room webinars. How did Raj create these and what were they designed to do?
• [22:47] - How does Raj define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it?
• [26:14] - What about a potential civil war is so compelling to Raj?
• [29:51] - How would Raj define civil war, in all its potential permutations, in current times?
• [38:00] - Might the US debt be the powder keg or catalyst for a “civil war” type event?
• [45:47] - What would it take for the US to lose its status as the reserve currency?
• [49:37] - Could all of the political unrest be a potential way of deleveraging and growing our way out of debt?
• [65:21] - Base case market scenario for the election year and how probable Raj thinks this is.
• [71:12] - Good case market scenario for the election year and how probable Raj thinks this is.
• [82:35] - Ugly market scenario for the election year and how probable Raj thinks this is.
• [88:24] - Are there any other risks that advisors and investors should be considering right now?

 Quotes

[23:27] ~ “Now, I’d say we are in a different era, we’re definitely in a stock picker’s era. Fundamentals matter way more. I’ve noticed just how much equities react on the day of earnings, up and down, just way more than the first 20 years of my career. So, maybe it’s a more fundamentals market now and macro matters less, or it’s just quickly put to the side…and I do agree with the comment that is commonly heard in finance, which is, the biggest risk is being out of the market - right? Over a 20 year period, over a long horizon, the biggest risk is being out of the market, not having something at risk. ” ~ Raj Udeshi

[35:03] ~ “You know The Fed looks a lot at winter, and non-consumption during winter, because people aren’t driving, people aren’t vacationing, they’re not doing those things. So, if there’s a serious amount…a pervasive or scaled violence, what I’d say is I’d be afraid of societal non-participation…people not going out to the movies, eating dinner [etc].” ~ Raj Udeshi

Links

• Raj Udeshi on LinkedIn
• [email protected]
• “Harvest Moon” by Poolside (Neil Young Cover)

Connect with Us

• Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer
• Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts
• Power Your Growth with Orion

Disclosure(s):

Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC, an Orion Company, is a registered investment advisor.

The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org. 

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

Compliance Code: 2129-OAT-8/20/2024

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by David Lundgren, Founder and Chief Market Strategist at MOTR Capital Management and Research and Portfolio Manager at Little Harbor. David has more than three decades of investment industry experience, with a focus on technical analysis strategies, particularly momentum and trend following. He is the former Director of Technical Research at Wellington Management, where he was also a Managing Director and portfolio manager with extensive experience managing global long-only and US long-short portfolios. David also held senior analyst positions at Fidelity & Thomson Financial. In addition, he has started several research and investment firms, including hedge fund Lyceum Capital, Breakaway Research, and most recently MOTR Capital Management & Research, Inc. He is also the portfolio manager of a private long short momentum & trend following hedge fund. David taught a graduate level Technical Analysis course at Brandeis International Business School, in Waltham, MA (June 2015-June 2020), where he received the 2015 Excellence in Teaching Award in his first year. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) dual charter holder, and a member of CMT Association’s board of directors. He launched and Co-Hosts “Fill the Gap”, CMT Association’s official podcast. David is a graduate of Babson College (1988), with a finance and investments dual major.

Key Takeaways

• [03:41] - David’s professional background and what he is focused on in his current roles.
• [08:23] - How does David define risk and how does he think investors and advisors should think about it?
• [13:07] - What is the momentum factor, how is it classically defined and how does David’s definition differ, if at all, in practice?
• [21:50] - Does momentum work for taxable investors if portfolio turnover is too high?
• [23:18] - How have machine learning and AI algorithmic trading shifted how momentum operates, as well as how it presents itself in the market?
• [26:53] - When you see parabolic moves, they often go a lot longer and higher than people expect but once they stall they often plummet, rather than plateauing. What does David think about this?
• [30:27] - Based on current market conditions, does David think we are in a bit of a momentum bubble and how is he accounting for this in his strategies if so?
• [36:03] - Various market scenarios and how David would adjust them, if at all.
• [39:36] - Bad case scenario for momentum investing and how probable David thinks this is.
• [43:27] - Good case scenario for momentum investing and how probable David thinks this is.
• [45:08] - Are there any other risks that investors should be considering in the current market environment?

 Quotes

[04:40] ~ “It’s the combination of momentum and trend that I think is the real home run, if you will, because momentum is…a very valuable input to the investment process, but it also has a lot of problems with it. Then there’s trend following, which is also a very powerful input to any investment process, but it also has its problems…What I find is when you put them together, they emphasize each other’s strengths, but they also fill the holes of each other’s weaknesses.” ~ David Lundgren

[19:20] ~ “Once you make a decision in a portfolio, there’s only four things that can happen from there. You can either make a little, you can lose a little, you can make a lot or you can lose a lot. The truth is, if we are being honest, the only one of those four things that we can control, is we can prevent ourselves from losing a lot of money and then the rest of it is up to what the market is willing to give us.” ~ David Lundgren

Links

• David Lundgren on LinkedIn
• MOTR Capital Management and Research
• “Not Afraid” by Eminem
• David Lundgren on Twitter
• Fill the Gap Podcast
• Jesse Livermore’s Book
• Nicolas Darvas’ Book
• William O’Neill’s Book
• Vivaldi’s Winter
• “Hate To Say I Told You So” by The Hives

Connect with Us

• Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer
• Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts
• Power Your Growth with Orion

Disclosure(s) -Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

Compliance Code: 1891-OAT-7/30/2024

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Kevin Baum, Chief Investment Officer at United States Commodity Funds (USCF). Kevin Baum, Chief Investment Officer, brings over 20 years of experience as a Senior Commodities Portfolio Manager. Kevin is responsible for expanding USCF's product line andoverseeing the company's investment policies and portfolio management team. Prior to joining USCF, he was Senior Portfolio Manager of Alternatives and Commodities for Invesco PowerShares. Kevin was part of the OppenheimerFunds team responsible for launching the first commodities mutual fund and subsequently incorporated the first off-shore Cayman subsidiary for a commodities fund. Kevin also served as Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Commodities and earned the Barron's/Value Line "Top 100 Managers" designation three times. Kevin is a CFA charterholder and CAIA charterholder. He earned a Bachelor of Business Administration degree in Finance, from Texas Tech University.

Key Takeaways

• [03:03] - Kevin’s professional background and more about his current role at USCF.
• [05:03] - How does Kevin define risk and how does he think investors and advisors should think about it?
• [06:49] - The copper gold ratio has declined over the last couple of months. Does Kevin think this is just a flash in the pan or a big warning sign that we should be looking for more recessionary trouble to come?
• [09:38] - Does Kevin think we are in the start of a super cycle for commodities or is their recent two year rally just them playing catch up?
• [13:36] - What are some of the constraints for bringing a new copper or rare earth metals mine online and why does it take as long as it does?
• [16:13] - Kevin compares the relative benefits of investing in commodities via a Passive ETF vs. an Actively Managed ETF.
• [20:31] - Rules of thumb and practical considerations for advisors looking to incorporate real assets, or commodities, into their portfolios.
• [23:22] - Best commodities for certain seasonal and tactical situations like inflation hedging and black swans.
• [30:42] - A base case economic outlook for commodities, and the broader market, and how probable Kevin thinks this might be.
• [33:45] - A bad economic outlook for commodities and how probable this might be.
• [36:32] - A good case for commodities and how probable this might be.
• [42:05] - What are some other risks that investors should be considering right now?

 Quotes

[09:57] ~ “I do think it’s important for advisors and investors to realize that commodities are kind of long cycle, long wave assets. If you look historically we see these decades where commodity prices do very well…Yes, ultimately the cure for low price is low price and the cure for high price is high price and, eventually, higher prices will bring capital into the space, but it takes a long time to develop new energy products [and] to bring new mines online. ” ~ Kevin Baum

[19:03] ~ “We’re not using the gray matter of a Portfolio Manager to swing the portfolio, you know, we’re following the monthly algorithm of our benchmark index…[however] we think that’s intelligent indexing,  which is akin to Active Management…We do think that the commodity space is one that really lends itself to that type of approach. So, I would strongly encourage advisors to look underneath the hood and think long and hard about the different implementation choices in this asset class. ” ~ Kevin Baum

Links

• Kevin Baum on LinkedIn
• USCF Investments
• “Lose Yourself” by Eminem

Connect with Us

• Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer
• Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts
• Power Your Growth with Orion

Disclosure(s) - Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

Compliance Code: 1632-OAT-6/28/2024

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by John O’Connor and Allen Parker, the CEO and President of J.H. Whitney respectively.

John O’Connor has served as Chairman of J.H. Whitney Investment Management, LLC since January 2005. From January 2009 through March 2011, he served as CEO of Tactronics Holdings, LLC, a Whitney Capital Partners portfolio holding company that provided tactical integrated electronic systems to US and foreign military customers as well as composite armor solutions for military vehicles through its Armostruxx division. Previously, John was Chairman of JP Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc. and an Executive Partner of JP Morgan Partners. He was also a member of the Risk Management Committee of JP Morgan Chase, which was responsible for policy formulation and oversight of all market and credit risk-taking activities globally. John has extensive experience in transaction leadership, structuring and portfolio management and is a member of J.H. Whitney’s Investment Committee, contributing significant global renewable and energy investment, regulatory, and operational expertise to the Investment Manager’s team. John earned a B.A. in economics from Tulane University and an M.B.A. from Columbia University Graduate School of Business.

Allen Parker became a Senior Advisor to J.H. Whitney Investment Management and its affiliates after most recently serving for three years as an executive at Wells Fargo & Company, where he was Interim Chief Executive Officer for seven months and General Counsel for the remainder of his tenure.  Throughout his time at Wells Fargo, he was also a member of the Wells Fargo Operating Committee, which is the company’s senior-most business committee responsible for considering and deciding on key strategic, business, and operational matters.  Prior to his work at Wells Fargo, Allen was a partner for 27 years at the New York law firm Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP, where he was a member of the firm’s corporate governance and board advisory practice and held a variety of leadership roles, including as Cravath’s Presiding Partner, the firm’s chief executive officer.  Allen has extensive experience in matters relating to corporate governance, crisis management, financial institution regulation, financing, mergers and acquisitions, and derivative transactions in the United States and over 20 foreign countries.  Allen earned an undergraduate degree from Duke University, an M.A. from the University of Chicago, and a J.D. from the Columbia University School of Law.

Key Takeaways

• [02:30] - Learn more about each of their backgrounds and their work at J.H. Whitney.
• [05:17] - How do each of them define risk and how should investors think about risk?
• [09:32] - What was the genesis behind creating the critical tech and intellectual property index that they put together?
• [15:31] - What are some characteristics to look for when gauging the relative importance of IP and its protection? Applying that today, how much of IP protection is just saber rattling and how much is real at this point?
• [20:49] - What criteria do they need at their firm to add a 15th type of critical Tech or IP to their index and what criteria do they need to no longer deem one of these 14 critical?
• [24:06] - How are countries classified by risk and what differentiates a low risk country from a neutral country? How much do government related contracts factor into this also?
• [27:15] - How do de-coupling and de-risking differ, if at all,  and where do they think the US  stands on this spectrum at the moment?
• [31:45] - A base case market scenario and how this might affect their index.
• [49:20] - Are there any other risks that advisors and investors should be thinking about?

 Quotes

[08:05] ~ “For me, and this is really what we are going to talk about today, I think the primary shortcoming in risk management, at the corporate level today, is in risk identification. ” ~ Allen Parker 

[18:19] ~ “The SEC has begun to become much more aggressive in terms of disclosure, with respect to IP on the one hand, and…with respect to cyber penetration on the other. So if it’s worth a lot of money, and it is at risk from Cyber, you as an issuer really need to talk about it now.” ~ John O’Connor

Links

• John O’Connor on LinkedIn
• J.H. Whitney Investment Management
• “Fanfare for the Common Man” by Aaron Copeland
• “Big Iron” by Marty Robbins

Connect with Us

• Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer
• Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts
• Power Your Growth with Orion

Disclosure(s) -Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

Compliance Code: 1349-OAT-5/29/2024

This week on Weighing the Risks we will take a closer look at gold. Why is it hitting all time highs and what are the broader implications for the Global Economy? What are the merits of various vehicles for getting access to gold and in what cases might George recommend using one vehicle over another? Learn more at orion.com.

Key Takeaways

• [03:47] - George’s professional background and what he focuses on, specifically, in his role at State Street Global Advisors.
• [07:16] - Since Nixon took us off the Gold Standard, gold has generally exhibited low correlations with stocks and bonds. Has George noticed this changing at all in this recent 0 rate policy cycle, as well as the subsequent rise in rates we’ve seen over the last year and a half or so?
• [09:04] - Why is gold hitting all time highs right now when it typically struggles in similar market environments?
• [13:14] - Why have central banks’ interest in gold risen a lot in a post-Covid environment while retail investors’ interest has stayed fairly level?
• [18:06] - Words of wisdom, or rules of thumb, for sizing an allocation of gold in a portfolio.
• [20:28] - What are the merits of various vehicles for getting access to gold? In what cases might George recommend using one vehicle over another?
• [25:41] - Nick presents a base case market scenario for gold in the coming year. Learn how George might adjust this outlook, if at all.
• [28:50] - Nick presents a good case market scenario for gold in the coming year. Learn how George might adjust his outlook, if at all.
• [32:45] - Nick presents a bear case market scenario for gold in the coming year. Learn how George might adjust his outlook, if at all.
• [35:19] - What are some risks we haven’t yet covered that investors should be thinking about?

 Quotes

[10:40] ~ “I, personally, and I think some other people with…nervousness [about] the risk on enthusiasm of the markets, have been looking to go a bit more risk off than I have been previously. I think that is why [gold has] been hitting record highs.” ~ George Milling-Stanley

[18:09] ~ “[When allocating gold] the literature basically says that any portfolio: institutional, or an individual, or hedge fund, or central bank…could benefit from…a long term, strategic allocation to gold of somewhere between 2% and 10%. The literature also says, that if you are experiencing or [are] anticipating a period of exceptional turbulence in financial markets, in general, it can make sense to double your allocation to gold.” ~ George Milling-Stanley

Links

• George Milling-Stanley on LinkedIn
• State Street Global Advisors
• “Come Rain Or Come Shine” by Tony Bennett
• SSGA SPDR

Connect with Us

• Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer
• Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts
• Power Your Growth with Orion

Disclosure(s) - Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

Compliance Code: 0988-OAT-4/23/2024

This week on Weighing the Risks we will take a closer look at the Corporate Bond market and how tight credit spreads are, relative to long term averages. We consider what these risks might mean not only for the bond market, but for the economy and stock market overall. Learn more at orion.com.

Key Takeaways

• [02:00] - Jason’s professional background and what he focuses on, specifically, at PIMCO.
• [03:30] - What were the key takeaways from PIMCO’s  Cyclical and Secular Outlook Summit and how might these impact the global credit markets? Will defaults continue to tick up, what are the odds of high yield spreads widening to historic levels and how might this affect the markets?
• [07:03] - In the current high yield market there is a record amount of BBs – is this a factor in why the credit spreads are so tight? Also, does this reflect a structural shift in the market or is it just part of the cycle?
• [09:03] - Is a potential upcoming debt wall a greater concern for investment grade than for high yield or is this concern overblown?
• [12:35] - What areas of the global credit market might offer the most value right now? Also, are people overweighting or underweighting high yield at the moment in Jason’s experience?
• [18:22] - What are some potential risks that advisors and investors might not be accounting for right now?
• [21:32] - A baseline market forecast and how probable Jason thinks this is.
• [26:52] - A good case market forecast and how probable Jason thinks this is.
• [29:32] - A negative case market forecast and how probable Jason thinks this is.
• [32:05] - Other risks that investors should be thinking about that we haven’t yet addressed.

 Quote

[03:43] ~ “Last year was an incredible year for the US across most markets and that momentum has carried into 2024 to start the year. It’s really being driven by a really resilient economy. Despite the moving rates, the US consumer remains healthy. There’s just overall been really great momentum in the economy and what we are really seeing this year is kind of a broadening of that strength…I think the key question is, with all of this kind of priced in, what does that really mean [going forward]?” ~ Jason Duko

Links

• Jason Duko on LinkedIn
• PIMCO 
• “Days Like This” by Van Morrison

Connect with Us

• Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer
• Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts
• Power Your Growth with Orion

Disclosure(s) ~ Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

Compliance Code: 0782-OAT-4/2/2024

This week on Weighing the Risks we will revisit the topic of China, arguably the most unloved market in the global economy. Are the risks properly appreciated, or are the risks even deeper than most investors believe? What might these risks mean, not only for the Chinese economy and markets, but also for the world? Learn more at orion.com.

Key Takeaways

• [03:49] - Brendan’s professional background and what he focuses on, specifically, at KraneShares.
• [06:07] - People are attempting to point out a lot of similarities between the current real estate issues in China and the Great Financial Crisis in America. Is this a fair comparison to make in Brendan’s opinion?
• [08:46] - Recently we’ve started to see some of the big name CEOs re-emerge from their seemingly self-imposed isolation – is this a good sign or a false spring? Should we have concerns about government intervention like many are arguing?
• [15:25] - Does the current economy in China look like it might continue a slow descent similar to Japan’s economic doldrums of the 80s?
• [19:40] - What might be the effects on the relationship between the US and China based on the outcome of our upcoming presidential election?
• [22:54] - What might be some catalysts to turn the Chinese market around and get American investors engaged again?
• [26:12] - Some potential market scenarios and Brendan’s thoughts on their plausibility.
• [35:42] - What are some other risks investors should be thinking about right now?

 Quotes

[09:40] ~ “China does need the West, they need foreign investors [and] foreign corporations. They’re not like a Russia, they can’t afford to be ostracized.”

[17:42] - "We outsource our pollution to these people in Asia. Raise your hand if you want a rare earth processing plant down the road, or a coal smelter…not in my backyard is unfortunately a pretty powerful incentive. What our consumption does to China and a lot of these countries is terrible." ~ Brendan Ahern

[36:42] - "My worry is more [about] this “China McCarthyism in DC. It’s very detached from [the]  economic reality of how intertwined our economies are. That’s my bigger risk, is a political [one]...and you know, it takes two to tango, so it could be from the China side, not just the US political side, that some of this just gets a little out of hand. [Though] I’d argue there’s clearly an effort at a high level to stabilize things, which is necessary. " ~ Brendan Ahern

Links

• Brendan Ahern on LinkedIn
• KraneShares
• China Last Night

Connect with Us

• Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer
• Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts
• Power Your Growth with Orion

Disclosure(s)

Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

Compliance Code: 0482-OAT-3/1/2024

This week on Weighing the Risks we take a closer look at Bitcoin ETFs with Matt Hougan and Hunter Horsley, the CIO and CEO of Bitwise Asset Management respectively. Matt and Hunter bring their unique experience to bear on questions about catalysts for  Bitcoin’s growth, Bitcoin “halving,” the pros and cons of owning Bitcoin itself vs. BITB, the tax implications of Bitcoin ETFs and much more. Learn more at orion.com.

Key Takeaways

• [02:28] - How does the team at Bitwise define risk and how do they think that advisors and investors should think about it?
• [04:20] - The current outlook for Bitcoin and what key factors should be considered when valuing Bitcoin.
• [04:50] - Potential catalysts for Bitcoin’s growth in the coming year(s).
• [06:40] - Other than reducing supply, what are some additional talking points around Bitcoin “halving” and why does this happen in the first place? 
• [09:20] - How will the Bitcoin ETFs affect the broader ETF industry and how large of a market opportunity might exist for Bitcoin ETFs?
• [11:26] - What sets apart the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF lineup from others?
• [15:30] - What are the tax implications for an ETF of this nature?
• [18:40] - What new strategies or products might Bitwise roll out going forward?
• [21:35] - What are the pros and cons of owning Bitcoin vs. BITB?
• [27:28] - How to approach portfolio sizing and rebalancing with Bitcoin ETFs.
• [33:00] - A few potential market outcomes and how realistic they might be.
• [43:30] - What other risks should investors be thinking about right now? 

 Quotes

[04:41] - "Historically Bitcoin has had multiple year bull markets, usually three strong  years before each pullback. When we look at the market we see a lot of catalysts that would suggest that there is reason for optimism both in the short and long term." ~ Matt Hougan

[15:30] - "Life gets a lot simpler with these Bitcoin ETFs. So, they are technically widely held grantor trusts and you get a 1099 from the brokerage or the custodian, so it’s a really simple story and I think that it is a huge advantage for advisors." ~ Hunter Horsley

Links

• Matt Hougan on Twitter
• Hunter Horsley on Twitter
• “The Final Countdown” by Europe
• “Patience” by Guns N’ Roses
• Bitwise Asset Management
• Crypto Market Quarterly Review (Q4)
• Crypto Library

Connect with Us

• Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer
• Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts
• Power Your Growth with Orion

Disclosure(s)

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

Compliance Code: 0243-OAT-2/1/2024

The healthcare industry is in a renaissance of innovation, marked by groundbreaking treatments, drug development, and advances in medical technology revolutionizing patient care. While challenges like cost, political headwinds, and workforce constraints persist, the overall trajectory remains positive and presents many opportunities for investors.

In this episode, Rusty and co-host Nick Codola, Senior Portfolio Manager at Brinker Capital Investments, are joined by Michael Taylor, Portfolio Manager at Simplify Health Care ETF (PINK). For the past two decades, Michael managed hedged and factor-neutral portfolios with a gross amount of over $ 1 billion at funds. He is regarded to have built and run one of the best-performing healthcare funds on Wall Street. Previous to portfolio management, Michael worked as a scientist during the 1990s, developing predominantly viral-vector-based gene therapeutic drugs for the bio/pharma industry. 

Michael talks with Rusty and Nick about the current landscape of the healthcare industry, highlighting the advancements in drug development and medical technology. He emphasizes these innovations' positive impact on patient outcomes and quality of life. Michael also addresses the risks and challenges facing the healthcare sector, such as the potential impact of weight loss drugs on the economy and government spending.

Key Takeaways

Quotes

[10:04] - "What's happening in the world of healthcare is that there are so many novel, potent, sophisticated drugs being developed that are really changing the quality of life of humans in a gigantic way. So, the healthcare landscape is having a renaissance, and it's not going to stop. If anything, it accelerates." ~ Michael Taylor

[27:16] - "Having a single-payer government healthcare system would very much be the absolute worst thing that could possibly happen to patients." ~ Michael Taylor

[47:22] - "There's no such thing as right or wrong in investing. It's just 'how can I generate the best returns for our investors?' That's the most important thing." ~ Michael Taylor

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Disclosure

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

3365-OAT-12/27/2023

As nations grapple with shifting power dynamics, territorial disputes, and evolving international relations, geopolitical risks loom over the global economy and financial markets. From the threat of trade wars disrupting international commerce to the intricacies of diplomatic tensions altering investment landscapes, each scenario poses unique challenges and opportunities. 

In this episode, Rusty talks with Lauren Goodwin, Economist and Portfolio Strategist at New York Life Investments, focused on cross-asset and international analysis. In her role, she and her team are responsible for research, macro and asset class views, asset allocation, and thought leadership. Throughout her career, Lauren has linked the macroeconomic environment to investment decisions, whether in banking, corporate strategy, policymaking, or asset management. Lauren has extensive quantitative and forecasting experience and prides herself on translating that experience into actionable insight.

Lauren talks with Rusty about the current geopolitical concerns, with a special emphasis on the Middle East and how they might impact the economy and markets. Lauren also provides insights on various scenarios, including the Israel-Hamas conflict, the war in Ukraine, US-China relations, and their potential impact on stock, bond, and commodity markets. The conversation highlights the importance of focusing on real policy changes and diversification in the face of geopolitical risks.

Key Takeaways

Quotes

[04:27] - "Be patient as geopolitical events are developing. Short-term moves are likely. But it's the underlying trend that can be obscure at first and really tends to drive an optimal asset allocation." ~ Lauren Goodwin

[16:45] - "When it comes to setting forward our scenarios for 2024, a lot of what we're thinking about are plain old economic risks that impact the market day in and day out. These disruptors can be very tempting to think a lot about. But really, what it comes down to for investors is focusing on action, not distraction." ~ Lauren Goodwin

[26:26] - "When you think about the most complex global supply chains like technology, energy, and even global finance, no one country is going to be self-sufficient in these major opportunity sets. We'll always have to work together or rely on one another in some form or fashion." ~ Lauren Goodwin

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Disclosure

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

3133-OAT-11/17/2023