“A model is just a way to try to predict something, but this got so popular that people just started believing in it completely, and stopped being rational about it. You always have to be a bit sceptical about models that predict the future, they can be wrong.”
— Rational Root

The Rational Root is a Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analyst and in this interview, we discuss developing & using Bitcoin price models. We look in detail specifically at his Bitcoin Spiral Models, Bitcoin hodl price models and Bitcoin halving & cycle charts.

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Bitcoin is currently in a bear market that the vast majority failed to predict. In fact, late last year, there was a lot of talk about $100k, $200k+ bitcoin that clearly failed to materialise. While bitcoin has experienced drops like this before, this time, the cycles played out differently.

So why are we in a bear market? Alongside the wider macro environment of the fed tightening and raising interest rates, Bitcoin was dragged down by the collapse of Terra/Luna and the subsequent Three Arrows Capital & Celcius meltdown (amongst others), and in June, the price got as low as $17,500.

Since then, bitcoin has been relatively stable, bouncing between $20k-$25k. Onchain analysis shows that since the June bottom, bitcoin has been under heavy accumulation. The question now is, where is the bottom and have we already hit it?

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This episode’s sponsors:
Gemini - Buy Bitcoin instantly
Ledn - Financial services for Bitcoin hodlers
Bitcasino - The Future of Gaming is here
Pacific Bitcoin - Bitcoin‑only event, Nov 10 & 11, 2022
Ledger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware wallet
Wasabi Wallet - Privacy by default
Texas Blockchain Summit - Nov 17-18, 2022 | Austin, Texas
BCB Group - Global digital financial Services

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WBD550 - Show Notes

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