The US homicide rate hit 10.2 per 100,000 in 1980, fell to 4.4 by 2014, then spiked to 6.5 in 2020. This looks like a story about violence rising, falling, and rising again. The actual story is simpler and worse: violence tripled in the 1960s and 70s. After adjusting for medical improvement, there is no clear statistical signal that it ever came back down. What changed was not the violence but how often it killed people.

Deaths vs. attacks

The homicide rate measures deaths. Deaths from gunshot wounds depend on two things: how many people get shot, and how many of those people die. Medicine affects the second thing. The homicide rate doesn't separate them.

If you get shot in the abdomen today, you have about a 92% chance of surviving. In 1960, you had about a 70% chance. In 1900, about 28%. The prognoses for other penetrating trauma wounds also improved, though this varies by wound location: head shots remain almost uniformly fatal regardless of era, while extremity wounds were highly survivable even a century ago. Abdominal wounds are a central case of an injury that kills you without good care and doesn't with it.

This problem was [...]

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Outline:

(00:42) Deaths vs. attacks

(02:48) The vanishing decline

(04:06) Two different ways to divide out the medicine

(12:02) The homicide-assault ratio

(14:08) Everything behind locked glass

(15:31) Fewer young people, more violence per young person

(17:01) Caveats

The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.