I believe you’ve heard of Nate Silver, whose fame is well earned. Sometimes, it’s almost too bad that his reputation as a data/politics guy precedes him. Nate, the writer, is highly underrated.

I was reminded of this once again while reading his new book, On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. It’s an engrossing exploration of risk and probability, as applied to those who live with making difficult choices. We get into many of its fascinating topics and also discuss what had just happened: On Tuesday, Kamala Harris announced Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her presidential running mate, passing over Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro.

Topics discussed but not limited to…

* Was Josh Shapiro’s Jewishness a deciding factor in losing out on the VP spot? Can we set odds on this?

* Why presidential candidates are sometimes inclined to pick worse VPs

* What it was like to hang out with Sam Bankman-Fried during his legal troubles

* What’s with the Effective Altruists? Why do some think AI will kill us all?

* Why are the Effective Altruists so disproportionately childless?

* Profiling guys like Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen

* Is there a dispassionate way to cut through media noise and assess when Trump is helping his own cause?

* Will Trump outperform the polls again? Should that be expected?

* Can the NFL be Moneyball’d?

House of Strauss is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.houseofstrauss.com/subscribe