New Zealand had a small reprieve as Monday's case numbers peaked just over 700, although that sort of drop is not expected to continue.

The motu is now at phase two – which means cases are more likely in the community – and we will see that daily number rise, and rapidly.

So when we will see a move to Phase 3  – if cases are ready to take off?

Te Punaha Matatini Covid-19 modeller Dr Dion O'Neale spoke to Māni Dunlop.