It is a fact about wolves and rationality that you should warn people about wolves quite a few times for every effective wolf attack.

In particular, there is an asymmetry between the costs of having one's flock devoured and averting a non-eventuating wolf attack. If the carnage is a hundred times worse, then it's worth up to ninety-nine false alarms to stop it.

The original fable was about a boy who would continually lie about wolves, and that is definitely poor form.

But in modern parlance, ‘crying wolf’ seems to be used for just being openly alarmed about things that turn out ok—I don’t hear much implication of deceit.

And in modern sensibilities, being seen to ‘cry wolf’—by even once raising an alarm that isn’t consummated with disaster—is something people seem to really fear. I think multiple people have asked me about whether AI safety people might have ‘cried wolf’ about some earlier GPT model. I’m not aware of anyone doing that, but the idea that they might have is so tantalizing that it bears investigating. Because if even a a few people somewhere did, it would be such a nice embarrassing blow to AI [...]

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