TLDR: I now think it's <1% likely that average orcas are >=+6std intelligent.

(I now think the relevant question is rather whether orcas might be >=+4std intelligent, since that might be enough for superhuman wisdom and thinking techniques to accumulate through generations, but I think it's only 2% probable. (Still decently likely that they are near human level smart though.))

1. Insight: Think about societies instead of individuals

I previously thought of +7std orcas like having +7std potential but growing up in a hunter-gatherer-like environment where the potential isn’t significantly realized and they don’t end up that good at abstract reasoning. I imagined them as being untrained and not knowing much. I still think that a +7std human who grew up in a hunter-gatherer society wouldn’t be all that awesome at learning math and science as an adult (though maybe still decently good).

But I think that's the wrong [...]

The original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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