If not for bad predictions, we might not have predictions at all.

In this episode, Joe revisits a 2002 white paper titled “What Risk Premium Is Normal?” by Rob Arnott and uses it as a lens to examine one of the most persistent problems in investing: overconfidence in forecasts.

From the “new economy” mindset of the late 1990s to today’s bold market projections, Joe breaks down why long-term return predictions are so often wrong, how expectations get distorted, and what investors should focus on instead. This is a grounded conversation about realism, discipline, and the danger of building financial plans on optimistic assumptions.

If you’ve ever wondered why expert predictions miss the mark or how to invest intelligently when the future is uncertain this episode will help reset your expectations and sharpen your strategy.

Topics covered:

• Why market predictions are consistently unreliable
• Expected vs. actual equity returns
• Lessons from past market cycles
• How investors should think about risk and long-term planning
• What really matters when forecasts fail