IIEA Talks

'Britain’s relations with its neighbours and the EU: what has changed and what can change?'

Britain’s Labour Party came to power in early July. It was the UK’s first change of government since Brexit and since the upheaval Britain’s departure from the EU caused in relations with its European neighbours. In the coming edition of IIEA Insights, Daithí Ó Ceallaigh and John Peet will assess how Ireland-UK relations have changed and whether Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit position in the EU single market for goods is permanently settled. Britain’s other bilateral relationships with European countries and prospects for closer cooperation with the EU will also be examined.

Daithí Ó Ceallaigh is a former Irish diplomat and chair of the IIEA’s UK group. Among other rolls during his career he served as Ireland’s ambassador to Finland and the UN in Geneva. He was also deeply involved in Ireland-UK relations, culminating in his appointment as ambassador to the UK in 2001. After his retirement from the Department of Foreign Affairs in 2009, he led the IIEA as Director General.

John Peet is The Economist‘s political and Brexit editor. Over his decades-long career at the paper, he has held a range of senior positions, including Europe editor and business affairs editor. He also spent time in Brussels and Washington DC as the paper’s correspondent. Before joining The Economist John was a civil servant.

According to Dr Šedivý, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has highlighted the necessity for the EU to strengthen Europe’s Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). A resilient and competitive EDTIB is a precondition for being able to develop and produce the capabilities that Member States and the EU’s partners require for their defence and security. Since February 2022, the EU has launched several major initiatives to boost the EDTIB and address defence gaps, especially ammunition stocks. Going forward, European defence spending needs to remain at the same, relatively high level if the EDTIB and Member States’ armed forces are to be fit for purpose and if Europe is to have the capabilities that it needs to address both current and future challenges.

About the Speaker:

Jiří Šedivý is the Chief Executive of the European Defence Agency, a position which he has held since 2020. Previously, Dr Šedivý served as Defence Minister of the Czech Republic (2006-2007), Deputy Defence Minister (2010-2012), NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defence Policy and Planning (2007-2010), and Permanent Representative of the Czech Republic to NATO (2012-2019). He was also the Czech Special Representative for Resilience and New Threats at the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2019-2020). Dr Šedivý is a graduate of Charles University, Prague where he completed a PhD in Political Science and of King’s College London where he earned an MA in War Studies.

Until the early 2000s, the Netherlands stood out as an exception in the success of far-right challengers: while populist radical right contenders were gaining significant electoral traction in neighboring countries, they long struggled to achieve similar success in the Netherlands. However, according to Dr Léonie de Jonge, since the turn of the 21st century, the Netherlands appears to have turned into a hotbed for far-right populism, which has become normalised by competition within this political wing. Indeed, the country has witnessed the rise of several influential populist radical right parties, including the Lijst Pim Fortuyn (List Pim Fortuyn or LPF), Geert Wilders’s Partij voor de Vrijheid (Party for Freedom or PVV), and, more recently, the Forum voor Democratie (Forum for Democracy or FvD), led by Thierry Baudet. In the 2023 general election, PVV secured nearly a quarter of the vote, leading to its inclusion in a coalition government in 2024. With this move, it seems fair to say that the far right has become normalised. In her address to the IIEA, Dr Léonie de Jonge tries to make sense of the meteoric rise of the far right in the Netherlands, and what this might mean for that country, the wider Benelux region, and for Europe.

Part of our #WhatsNext series, which sees experts debate, discuss and analyse what's next for public policy as political and social change sweeps the globe.

About the Speaker:

Léonie de Jonge is Assistant Professor in European Politics and Society at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. She also works as a researcher at the Documentation for Dutch Political Parties. Léonie obtained her PhD from the University of Cambridge in 2019 for her research on the success and failure factors of populist radical right. In her latest book (2021), she answers the question of why these parties have been more successful in the Netherlands and Flanders than in Luxembourg and Wallonia. In 2021, Léonie was elected Chair of the Steering Committee on Extremism and Democracy at the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR), and in 2022, she was appointed member of the Young Academy (De Jonge Akademie) of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). Léonie is an internationally renowned expert in the fields of political extremism and right-wing populism in Europe. Her work is also frequently featured in international news and media.

'Trump’s tariffs: the implications for transatlantic trade'

America has soured on free trade and globalisation. Disruption to transatlantic trade is a major near-term risk for the Irish economy, as the biggest per capita goods exporter to the US among EU members. One of the candidates in November’s US presidential election has promised across-the-board tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods. Such a measure would almost certainly result in retaliatory measures by the European Commission, which has exclusive competence over EU members’ international trade policy. In this edition of IIEA Insights, Alicia García Herrero, Rory Montgomery and Matt Moran examine the implications of these tariffs on transatlantic economic and security relations.

Alicia García Herrero: Chief Asia Pacific Economist at Natixis bank and a Senior fellow at Bruegel think tank.

Rory Montgomery: former Permanent Representative of Ireland to the EU, among others senior diplomatic roles.

Matt Moran: former head of Ibec’s Biopharmachem Ireland and currently a consultant in that industry.

In his address to the IIEA, Dr Vindman examines the Russia-Ukraine War: Past, Present, and Future. He discusses the roots of the war and its conduct to date, highlighting the conflict’s effects on European security, the trans-Atlantic alliance, and broader geopolitics. Dr Vindman also provides analysis on how the war is likely to unfold and conclude. His assessment of the war will be contextualised within the global clash between democracy and authoritarianism, with prescriptions on what the West must do to win.

About the Speaker:

Dr Alexander Vindman, a retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel, was the director for European Affairs on the White House’s National Security Council. Before that, he served as the Political-Military Affairs Officer for Russia for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and as an attaché at the US Embassies in Moscow and Kyiv. While on the Joint Staff, he co-authored the National Military Strategy Russia Annex. He earned an MA from Harvard University, where he serves as a Hauser Leader, and a PhD from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he is currently a senior fellow. Dr Vindman leads the national security think tank Institute for Informed American Leadership, is an executive board member for the Renew Democracy Initiative, a senior fellow at the Kettering Foundation, and a senior advisor to VoteVets. His best-selling memoir is titled Here, Right Matters.

In this address to the IIEA, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Moldova, Mihai Popșoi, discusses the membership aspirations of Moldova and ongoing negotiations with the European Union, particularly about the necessary structural reforms underway within the country, and the feasibility of the 2030 target date for EU Accession. Another theme of his address covers Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ongoing “grey zone” assaults on Moldova.

About the Speaker:

Mihai Popșoi is the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Moldova, holding a Ph.D. in Political Studies from the University of Milan. From 2019 to 2024, he served as Deputy Speaker of the Parliament and was the Faction Leader of the Action and Solidarity Party. He was also the Vice President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in 2022. His extensive parliamentary work includes co-chairing the Parliamentary Committee on Moldova-EU Association and the Moldova-Poland Parliamentary Assembly and chairing the Parliamentary Monitoring and Control Commission on Reintegration Policy.

In this panel, Dr Elodie Fabre and Mathieu Gallard dissect the recent French legislative elections. These two experts discuss voting trends, electoral issues, the results and possible new government, and what that may mean for France’s domestic and international policy.

About the Speakers:

Dr Elodie Fabre is a Lecturer in Politics and International Studies at Queen’s University Belfast. Her research focuses on political parties in France and in the UK. She is currently working on the evolution of Renaissance, Emmanuel Macron’s political party, and party finance in Northern Ireland.

Mathieu Gallard has been Research Director at Ipsos France since 2016. He is in charge of surveys on political and electoral issues in France and abroad and has produced analyses on these matters for numerous media and think tanks. Before joining Ipsos, Mr Gallard worked at the Government Information Service, which analyses public opinion for the Prime Minister's office.

In his remarks to the IIEA, Édouard Philippe analyses the role of France and the EU in adapting to global upheavals. In his address, he underscores France's pivotal role in Europe, especially in promoting peace and economic cooperation, while addressing current challenges such as shifting global power dynamics, waning multilateralism, and defense policy alignment. He also highlights the necessity of a united Europe to effectively respond to these issues.

About the Speaker:

Édouard Philippe has been Mayor of Le Havre since 2010. From 2012 to 2017, he was also Member of Parliament representing the 7th district of Seine-Maritime. From 2017 to 2020, he served as Prime Minister of France. In October 2021, he created his own political party, Horizons. In November 2021, he was elected President of the International Network of Port Cities (AIVP). Édouard Philippe is also a writer who has published several novels and non-fiction books.

This panel discusses what the next steps might be for the EU following the European Parliament elections, which took place in June. The panellists will look at where we are in the various post-election processes, as regards to appointments to the top EU jobs, the formation of the parliamentary groups, and the formation of the new Commission.

About the Speakers:

John O’ Brennan is a professor in the department of Sociology at Maynooth University and Director of the Maynooth Centre for European and Eurasian studies. He is an expert on EU enlargement and on Ireland’s experience of European integration. He has published two books, and dozens of journal articles and book chapters on these themes. He is one of Ireland’s foremost analysts of contemporary Europe for newspapers, television and radio outlets.

Frances Fitzgerald is an international leader and influencer on equality from Ireland, who is currently serving a two-year term as a Member of the Gender Equality Advisory Council to the G7. A parliamentarian for over 20 years,Frances has served as Tánaiste; Minister for Business, Enterprise & Innovation; Minister for Justice & Equality; and was the State’s first Minister for Children & Youth Affairs. She held the position of Member of the European Parliament for 5 years (2019-2024), where she served on the Women’s Rights and Gender Equality Committee, the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee and the Development Committee

Marian Harkin TD served as an MEP from 2004 to 2019, as a member of the Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE). She was first elected as an independent in 2004 for the Connacht-Ulster region and was re-elected in 2009 and 2014 to represent the Northern and Western Region. Marian was the co-ordinator for the ALDE group on the Committee for Employment and Social Affairs and also sat on the Agriculture and Finance Committees in the European Parliament. In 2012, she became Vice-President of the European Democratic Party. In 2020, after 15 years as an MEP, Marian was re-elected to Dáil Eireann as an independent for Sligo-Leitrim-North Roscommon and South Donegal.

At a time when migration is one of the most pressing issues on the international agenda – and one of the most polarising – Amy Pope, Director General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), reflects on why it is important to change the global narrative – from one that is highly politicised to one that captures the potential and rich benefits of this global phenomenon.

About the Speaker:

Amy Pope is the Director General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a post she has held since 1st October 2023. She brings a wealth of experience in addressing complex migration issues and a passion for changing the global narrative about people on the move. She is the first woman to hold the post in IOM’s 73-year history.