'The Economic Outlook at Mid-Year'

Despite intense uncertainty in the international trading system and heightened geopolitical tensions, both the Irish and global economies proved resilient in the first half of 2025. As we move into the second half of the year, Dan O’Brien, the IIEA’s Chief Economist, will present his economic outlook during the next event in the Institute’s Insights series. He will examine issues such as growth-positive technological changes and Europe’s under-discussed strengths.

Dan O'Brien is Chief Economist of the Institute of International and European Affairs. He is also Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at University College Dublin’s Geary Institute and a Columnist with The Currency. He has previously worked for Economist Intelligence Unit, the Irish Times, the European Commission and as a consultant for the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and Forfas.

Europe faces an acute and growing threat. The EU Joint White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030 outlines how Europe will need to do more to ensure to protect European citizens. This IIEA panel discusses how Europe can develop its capabilities. Moreover, it explores how European Member States can collaborate effectively to replenish diminished stocks of equipment to not only provide for their own security, but also to meaningfully support partners such as Ukraine in their defence against Russia’s war of aggression.

This event has been organised in association with the European Commission Representation in Ireland.

Speakers include:

Minister Thomas Byrne, Minister of State for European Affairs and Defence

Guillaume de la Brosse, Head of Unit for Defence Policy and Innovation at DG DEFIS

Brigadier General (Retired) Tony Cudmore, Former Brigadier General in the Irish Defence Forces and Adjunct Lecturer at Maynooth University

Dr Alice Ekman, Research Director at the EU Institute for Strategic Studies (EUISS)

Professor Brigid Laffan, Emeritus Professor at the European University Institute.

This event was moderated by Catherine Day, Former Secretary-General of the European Commission and IIEA Board member

'The Value of the Revised Draft Declaration on International Solidarity as a Corrective to the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum'

The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum sets forth a solidarity mechanism that seeks to ameliorate inequalities in responsibility for processing asylum claims. NGOs are concerned that States are pursuing externalisation agreements and strengthening border security arrangements to promote deterrence in bad faith. The Revised Draft Declaration on International Solidarity provides a framework to correct the misunderstanding of solidarity with the EU Pact. In her address to the IIEA, Professor Bailliet presents the elements of an international solidarity human-focused asylum mechanism that ensures non-discrimination, provides access to justice, calls for a reversal of externalisation and keeps the best interests of the child at its core.

About the Speaker:

Professor Dr. jur. Cecilia M. Bailliet is the UN Independent Expert on Human Rights and International Solidarity and Director of the Masters Programme in International Law at the University of Oslo. She supported the creation of an International Solidarity Map: Solidarity Actions Around the World. She is Co-Chair of the Latin America Interest Group of the American Society of International Law. Prof Bailliet holds a combined J.D./M.A. (honours) degree from The George Washington University Law School & Elliott School of International Affairs. She received her Doctorate in law from the University of Oslo in Norway. Prof Bailliet has published extensively on transnational and cross-disciplinary issues within international law including general public international law, human rights, refugee law, constitutional law, counter-terrorism, gender/women's rights, solidarity, and peace. Prof Bailliet's books include:  Research Handbook on International Solidarity and the Law (2024), The Construction of the Customary Law of Peace: Latin America and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (2021), and The Research Handbook on International Law and Peace (2019). She has also contributed lectures to the UN AudioVisual Library of International Law.

After almost two-decades of floundering negotiations, talks on an EU-India Free Trade Agreement have begun to gather momentum. Both sides seek alliances that cover not only trade relations but greater security cooperation and a shared technology agenda.

In a signal of its strategic priorities, the College of Commissioners paid a first-of-its-kind visit to India in February 2025, where Prime Minister Modi and European Commission President von der Leyen pledged to conclude a Free Trade Agreement by the end of this year.

In this IIEA panel discussion, Dr Sonali Chowdhry and Dr Amitendu Palit address the prospects of a potential EU-India Free Trade Agreement and consider what an EU-India partnership should or should not prioritise. At a time when the EU’s Global Gateway Strategy has promised to create links, not dependencies, the panelists reflect on whether – in the words of President von der Leyen – EU-India ties have the potential to be one of the defining partnerships of this century.

About the Speakers:

Dr Sonali Chowdhry is a trade economist based at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Her work examines the structure of global supply chains and distributional effects of new trade policies. Dr Chowdhry has contributed to in-depth policy reports on mega-regional free trade agreements to the European Parliament. Previously, she was a Max Weber Fellow at the European University Institute and earned her PhD in Economics from LMU Munich as a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Fellow. Dr Chowdhry holds an MPhil in Economics from the University of Oxford, as a Rhodes Scholar from India.

Dr Amitendu Palit is Senior Research Fellow and Research Lead (Trade and Economics) at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore. He specialises in economic security, international trade and investment policies, FTAs, supply chains, regional connectivity, and the Indian economy. He is a Senior Associate Fellow with the ISPI Milan and an Adjunct Faculty with the Centre for WTO Studies, India. He has also been a Member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Trade and Investment. Dr Palit has edited and authored several books. He writes for various global publications and features as an expert on CNBC, CNA, BBC, NDTV and other prominent media channels.

Join the IIEA for the launch of its second Pathways Paper, where Matt O’Neill, Climate Project Lead, presents the key themes from Farm to Finance: The Processor–Farmer Nexus in Ireland’s Agricultural Climate Transition. The paper explores the relationship between farmers and food processors in relation to the climate transition within Agriculture. It draws on interviews with stakeholders and sectoral data to analyse the financial and regulatory considerations, and trust-based barriers to transition within the agriculture sector. It draws upon interviews with stakeholders and sectoral data to analyse the financial and regulatory considerations to transition within the wider supply chain. Following the short presentation, a panel offers their responses and reflections to the paper’s key themes.

This panel includes:

Ailbhe Gerrard, representing TalamhBeo and founder of Brookfield Farm

Dale Crammond, Director of Meat Industry Ireland - Ibec

Alan Matthews (Panel Chair), Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy at Trinity College Dublin

Matthew O'Neill, IIEA Climate Project Lead

Tadhg Buckley, Director of Policy/Chief Economist at Irish Farmers Association

Frances McDonnell, Deputy News Editor with Agriland

Speaker bios:

Tadhg Buckley is currently Director of Policy/Chief Economist with the Irish Farmers Association (IFA), Ireland’s largest farming organisation. Prior to joining the IFA, Tadhg worked in the finance industry as Head of Agriculture with AIB Bank.

Dale Crammond in January 2023 after a 22-year career in Government he took up the role as Director of Meat Industry Ireland. Previously, he spent four years in the Embassy of Ireland in Washington, D.C. (2015-2019) where he worked to increase market access opportunities for Irish food and drink exports to the United States. 

Alan Matthews is Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy at the University of Dublin Trinity College, Ireland, and a former President of the European Association of Agricultural Economists.

Matthew O'Neill is Climate Project Lead at the IIEA, in which role he leads the Pathways: Ireland’s Agricultural Future project. His research focuses on the intersection of climate policy and agricultural systems.

Francess McDonnell is an award-winning journalist and producer. Currently Deputy News Editor with Agriland, she is also a former business editor and correspondent with the Sunday Times Ireland and the Irish Times and has previously worked with Sky News and BBC NI.

Ailbhe Gerrard, founder of Brookfield Farm, is a farmer, beekeeper, researcher, and agricultural educator with deep interest in agriculture, creativity and regeneration.

This lecture touches on the changing global focus of development cooperation, the reform processes that have been put in place, and Ireland’s perspective on the future of development. The Minister of State speaks about Ireland’s role in key events this year, such as the upcoming Financing for Development Conference in Seville, the G20 Development Working Group and COP 30 to be held in Brazil in November, and highlights the Key Priorities for Ireland, focusing on gender and health, climate action, nutrition and education.

About the Speaker:

Neale Richmond is Minister of State at the Department of Foreign Affairs with special responsibility for International Development and Diaspora. He previously served as Minister of State at the Department of Finance with special responsibility for Financial Services, Credit Unions and Insurance, and as Minister of State at the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment with special responsibility for Business, Employment and Retail, and the Department of Social Protection.

'Will Multinational American Corporations Become Less Multinational?'

The US political and economic policy-making environment has changed dramatically in 2025, with a shift against globalisation among the most potentially impactful changes being executed by the current administration. US multinational corporations are reassessing their global operations in the light of tariffs, pressure from the US government to invest more at home, invest less abroad, and reshore production and jobs from other countries. To discuss how corporate America is responding to this changed environment, IIEA Insights is joined by Mike Beary, formerly of Amazon in the US and Amazon Web Services in Ireland; Courtney Fingar, Founder of Fingar Direct Investment; Joseph Quinlan, Co-Author of AmCham’s annual ‘Transatlantic Economy’ report; and Anna Scally, International Tax Partner at KPMG Ireland.

About the speakers:

Mike Beary is currently Chair of the Governing Authority of University College Dublin. Previously, he joined Amazon in Seattle in 2012 as part of the marketplace leadership team. He subsequently served as Country Manager Ireland for Amazon Web Services and as the company’s HR Director for Europe, Middle East & Africa.

Courtney Fingar founder of Fingar Direct Investment after a career engaged in FDI issues. Her previous roles include Editor in Chief of both Investment Monitor and fDi Intelligence, Senior Advisor at The World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies, and Content Editor for FT Live.

Joseph Quinlan is Senior Fellow with the Transatlantic Leadership Network and has a long and ongoing leadership role in the financial services industry in New York.

Anna Scally is an International Tax Partner at KPMG Ireland where she is Sector Leader on the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) Industries.

On 18 May 2025, Romania held a pivotal presidential runoff between George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), and Nicușor Dan, the pro-European independent and mayor of Bucharest. This election followed the annulment of the 2024 vote due to allegations of foreign interference, leading to heightened political tension and public scrutiny. Simion’s first-round victory, securing approximately 41% of the vote, has raised concerns about Romania’s future alignment with the EU and NATO, given his nationalist rhetoric and scepticism towards European integration. In the run-off election on 18 May, Nicușor Dan won the election and is poised to take the Romanian presidency, on a platform emphasising democratic values, anti-corruption, and continued cooperation with Western partners. This IIEA webinar explores the implications of the election outcome for Romania’s domestic political landscape, foreign policy, and role within the EU. The discussion features Professor Cristian Preda and Dr. Claudia Bădulescu and was moderated by Dr. Barry Colfer.

Speaker bios:

Professor Cristian Preda is a professor of political science at the University of Bucharest and served as a Member of the European Parliament from 2009 to 2019. He was presidential adviser to President Emil Constantinescu (1999–2000) and President Traian Băsescu (2007–2009) and also served as Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs from 2005 to 2007.

Dr Claudia Bădulescu is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Institute for European Studies (IEE) and the Centre for the Study of Politics (CEVIPOL) at Université Libre de Bruxelles. She holds a PhD from the European University Institute and specialises in democracy, autocratisation, and EU neighbourhood policy.

Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine, sharpening Sino-US rivalry, and doubts about US security guarantees have left Europe searching for ballast. Against this backdrop, a new German government led by Friedrich Merz promises to “restore leadership.” Dr Nicolai von Ondarza explores Berlin’s concrete goals for developing EU policies, defence, and transatlantic ties, as well as its coalition-building strategies with France, Poland, the UK, and smaller member states such as Ireland. He also addresses how a resurgent AfD might constrain Germany’s room for manoeuvre.

Part of our #WhatsNext series, which sees experts debate, discuss and analyse what's next for public policy as political and social change sweeps the globe.

Dr Nicolai von Ondarza is the Head of the EU/Europe Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin and an Associate Fellow at Chatham House. His research focuses on Germany’s role in Europe, EU politics and institutions, EU–UK relations as well as democracy in Europe. As part of his work, he has consulted the German Government, the Bundestag, the UK government, the European Parliament and the European Commission.

How Africa Eats is free to read and download from the LSE Press website via this link: https://doi.org/10.31389/lsepress.hae

In his online address to the IIEA, award-winning author, Professor David Luke discusses his forthcoming publication, How Africa Eats: Trade, Food Security and Climate Risks. The book examines in detail what Africa eats and where and how it is produced. Despite holding 60% of the world’s arable land area, up to one quarter of the African population experiences severe food insecurity. As editor, Professor Luke has brought together experts in trade policy, international law, and development to scrutinise how finance, investment, foreign aid, institutions, actors, and capacities have interacted with policies in preventing Africa from becoming an agricultural powerhouse.

In his address, Professor Luke sets forth the urgent threats of climate change, trade barriers, and policy challenges facing the African continent in terms of food security. Professor Luke will examine the role of the EU as Africa’s most important trade partner and investor and assess whether the EU’s Global Gateway initiative has had – or could have – an impact on Africa’s food production systems and capacities.

David Luke is Professor in Practice and Strategic Director at the LSE’s Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa and Extraordinary Professor at North-West University in South Africa. Specialising in African trade policy and trade negotiations, Professor Luke has decades of experience in policy advisory services, managing and catalysing research, building partnerships, and training and capacity development for private sector and government. This experience stems from an extensive career spanning a tenured appointment at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada, and assignments at the African Union, the UN Development Programme, and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) with postings in Harare, Pretoria, Geneva, and Addis Ababa. At ECA’s African Trade Policy Centre, Professor Luke and his team were instrumental in the preparation of the protocols that make up the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement. His PhD in African Political Economy is from the School of Oriental and African Studies, and his MSc and BSc are from the London School of Economics and Political Science. His research and teaching interests are in the areas of trade in development; trade and inclusion; and trade and sustainability. He is also a member of the board of TradeMark Africa.