In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, David shares the results of Abacus Data’s latest polling—conducted from March 31 to April 3—capturing where voters stood just before Donald Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. David breaks down the key highlights: the ongoing tie between the Liberals and Conservatives, the surge in Conservative voter motivation, the Liberals’ deepening voter pool, and the leadership impressions shaping public opinion. He also explains how the reprieve from Trump’s tariffs could shift the narrative heading into the home stretch of the 2025 federal election. If you’re following this pivotal campaign, don’t miss David’s insights on the factors that might determine who forms government three weeks from now.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, we examine President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement—and Canada’s unexpected exclusion from it. David unpacks fresh polling data on who Canadians trust more to stand up to Trump: Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals, or Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. With previously announced tariffs still in play, the stakes remain high for Canadian industries. Tune in as David explores whether being spared these new duties helps Carney bolster his claim of effective leadership, or whether it opens the door for Poilievre to focus on domestic issues—and potentially change the game as the campaign finishes its second week.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, I dig into why the Liberals—now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney—are currently the favourites in this federal election campaign. Using advanced analysis from a binary logistic regression model, I break down what’s really driving support for the Liberal Party.

We explore how voters’ priorities—like concern about Donald Trump versus anxiety over the cost of living—shape the likelihood of supporting the Liberals, and why impressions of Carney and Poilievre matter so much. I also unpack a few hypothetical voter profiles to illustrate how issue salience and leader perceptions work together to move votes.

Whether you’re on the campaign trail, in the war room, or just trying to make sense of the latest polls, this data-driven episode offers insights into how the ballot question is being shaped—and what that means for each party’s path to victory.

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, David breaks down the first week of Canada’s high-stakes election campaign and explains why a sudden pivot to confront Donald Trump may not be the smartest strategic move for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party. Drawing on the latest polling data—originally presented at the Empire Club and widely discussed in the media—David explores why the Liberals and their new leader, Mark Carney, have gained momentum by focusing on U.S. threats. He also reveals how the deep desire for change among Canadian voters has not disappeared, and how that undercurrent could still shape the outcome of the election if the Conservatives can keep it in the spotlight. Don’t miss this insightful analysis of one of the most consequential elections in recent memory.

Read David's analysis on The Hub: https://thehub.ca/2025/03/29/david-coletto-avoiding-the-trump-trap-why-the-conservatives-might-want-to-keep-change-as-the-election-focus/?utm_medium=paid+social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=boost

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, we dive into Abacus Data’s third poll of the 2025 Canadian election. David breaks down why Liberals and Conservatives are now tied at 39%, how Liberal support edges higher among those most committed to voting, and the demographic shifts reshaping the race. Plus, hear why Donald Trump’s presidency and the cost-of-living crisis are battling it out to become the dominant ballot question. If you’re looking for the latest insights on what’s driving voter intentions—and what it could all mean come election day—this episode has you covered.

You can access the full poll results here: https://abacusdata.ca/2025-federal-election-poll-liberals-conservatives-tied/

Subscribe to my substack: davidcoletto.substack.com

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, we dive into fresh survey data revealing why Canadians say they’ll vote Liberal or Conservative in the current federal election. David unpacks the two distinct visions for the country, from those who trust a new Liberal leader to stand up to U.S. trade threats and safeguard social programs, to those rallying behind a Conservative call for change, lower taxes, and a break from what they view as a decade of economic mismanagement.

Tune in as David highlights the major themes shaping voter preferences, including leadership, cost-of-living concerns, and strategic voting. Whether you’re curious about the “anyone but Conservative” mentality or intrigued by why some believe it’s “time for change,” this episode explores the personal motivations fueling Canada’s political divide—offering clear insights into the biggest issues at play in the election.

Mark Carney has called the 2025 federal election and the race is on. In this episode of InFocus, David Coletto dissects new Abacus Data poll numbers showing a close contest between Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP struggles to gain traction. Learn which regions matter most, which issues will define the campaign, and how volatile voter preferences could shape the final outcome. Stay tuned for an in-depth breakdown of the numbers and what they mean for Canada’s political future.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, we break down the looming Canadian federal election—from Justin Trudeau’s surprise exit and Pierre Poilievre’s stalled vision, to Donald Trump’s game-changing threats and Mark Carney’s sudden rise to prime minister. Tune in for a concise, data-driven guide to the factors reshaping Canadian politics right now.

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, we explore how Sun Tzu’s classic principles from The Art of War apply to Canada’s upcoming election. Discover why the Conservatives want to wage battle over cost-of-living while the Liberals prefer to focus on the “Trump factor,” and learn how each party is working to define the campaign on their own terms.

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, we break down our newest poll revealing how Canadians view Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre—two relatively fresh contenders gearing up for an expected federal election. Join David as he unpacks the data behind each leader’s strengths, vulnerabilities, and perceived policy positions, and explores why a significant group of swing voters could tip the balance.

If you want deeper insights, including charts and analysis, head over to David’s Substack at davidcoletto.substack.com. It’s a quick, data-driven look at the dynamics poised to shape Canada’s political landscape in the months ahead.