Inside the Rope with David Clark

Delivering returns whilst providing impact, Cullen joins David to discuss the Kilter Rural impact investments.

Since 1993 Cullen has been working in the farmland and water management sector. While holding a strong grounding in active, hands-on land management, at a strategic level Cullen holds experience in the development of priorities for investment at both catchment and state levels in Victoria.

Cullen went on to establish Kilter Rural in 2004 as a vehicle for investment in sustainably managed farmland and water assets.

Kilter Rural is a specialist manager, dedicated to investment in Australian real assets of farmland, water and ecosystem services. The economic fundamentals of investing in these assets are underpinned by demand and supply of food and fibre to a growing world population.

Managing a credit portfolio across several asset-backed loans (and previously corporate loans), James and the team at Aquasia's enhanced credit fund have returned 6.76% p.a. since inception (October 2011). However March saw the fund have its first negative month, as the fear of COVID-19 saw credit spreads widen and valuations shift. As James highlights, this isn't necessarily a reflection on the assets themselves or an immediate decrease in quality, but more so the price that investors are willing to pay for assets.

James and David discuss the differences between the COVID-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis, with James highlighting the structural causes of the GFC against the temporary economic damages caused by COVID-19 and the global government interventions.

James also explains the stimulus provided by governments to bridge the gap to an eventual COVID-19 solution, the impact of hardship on property prices and the flow-on effect to other asset prices.

Regal Small Companies fund has returned 18.4% p.a. (as at April 2020) since inception (Feb 2015).

As part of the COVID-19 Special Episodes, David chats with Phil King of Regal Funds Management. Late last year when David last spoke with Phil, Phil believed that it was a great time to invest. However, throughout this episode, Phil argues that it's important investors change their portfolios as the facts change. Investors should constantly ask themselves, "Is my thesis still valid?", and as we have seen, Covid-19 has largely disrupted everyone's thesis.

Despite the recent bounce in markets, Phil thinks that it will be a while before we see the true bull market return, however, he highlights the opportunities presenting themselves in the small to mid-cap space of Australian equities compared to the traditional high yielding value traps that many Australians have typically favoured. 

Since inception (Feb 2015) the Regal Small Companies fund has returned 18.4% p.a. (as at April 2020).

How has COVID-19 affected property?

In this episode, Chris and David discuss the impact of COVID-19 on property asset prices. Chris is a portfolio manager for the Quay Global Real Estate Fund. The fund itself has returned 11.7% p.a. since inception in July 2014 till March 2020.

Post-March the global REIT market has not recovered to the same extent as global equities. Chris puts this down to the number of sectors within real estate that are socially driven. This includes Retail, Office/Commercial, Hotels and Hospitality. As these sectors see reduced activity from the impact of COVID-19, we are seeing overall REIT indices weighed down significantly when compared to equities.

Chris and David also discuss the dislocation that has risen from the COVID crisis as a result of people working from home, leading businesses to renew their perceptions on such arrangements and the ongoing cost of office workspaces.

Magellan Global has returned 14.78% over 1 year to the 31st of March 2020.

In what Hamish calls a classic Black Swan event, he and David discuss the recent impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across global financial markets. Initially presenting as a localized epidemic in China, COVID-19 has evolved into a global pandemic that has wreaked havoc on financial markets around the world.

Despite there being no modern rule book on how to navigate investments during the pandemic, Magellan's Global Fund has held relatively strong. Hamish attributes this to a lower-risk portfolio that was built to withstand such unforeseen 'Black Swan' events and elaborates on the additional measures that the Magellan team have taken to further protect downside risks. By example, the Magellan Global Fund has increased cash levels from 6% to over 15% during March till now.

Hamish remains cautious of events that may unfold over the coming months and discusses the key indicators that he believes are necessary to reduce financial market risks and allow investors to determine the shape of recovery that they can expect.

Alium Market Neutral returned 7.2% in March.

Martin Rosser joins the podcast again to discuss how the Alium Market Neutral Fund has been able to generate positive returns during the COVID-19 pandemic.

By identifying early market trends such as growth in the share price of "In-Home" businesses as events transpired in places such as Hong Kong, Martin and the team were able to make sensible investments before COVID-19's growth accelerated throughout Australia and the rest of the world. The team also shorted areas such as discretionary spending and travel which have provided additional levels of alpha and positive returns.

During March 2020, the Alium Market Neutral fund was able to generate estimated returns of 7.2%, and targets returns of 10-15% p.a. throughout the cycle.

Adrian runs the Merricks Capital Partners Fund, a fund that provides senior asset secured debt to real estate, agriculture & occasionally infrastructure. The fund has provided investors with consistent returns of 12% p.a. net of fees (as at Feb 2020) with relatively low levels of volatility and an overall loan to value ratio of less than 60%.

Throughout the episode, Adrian discusses the impact of COVID-19 including the fund's recent performance and uplift throughout March, which was amplified by the fund's hedge in credit default swaps. These swaps which were incorporated at a relatively low cost, have provided investors with downside protection against both economic meltdowns & liquidity crises. Adrian believes that these swaps will continue to provide protection should financial markets further deteriorate.

The Totus Capital Alpha Fund is up 9% CYTD for 2020, during a period when global equity markets have rerated significantly. Throughout the episode, Ben discusses the opportunities he believes are being created in markets, and the short term trends that have been created by the virus. Similar to our previous guest John Hempton, Ben argues that this is a virus issue at its core which cannot be solved through central bank intervention.

Ben also discusses the ongoing management of Totus' book, which may contain circa 80 shorts and 40 longs on any given day. As well as his outlook on BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) platforms, proposed rental concessions and other impacts across the different age demographics.

The Totus Alpha fund has been running since 2012, and up to the end of Feb 2020 has returned 17.4% p.a. (net of all fees).

In John Hempton’s eyes, what is occurring in financial markets is not an economic problem that can be solved through central bank stimulus. It’s a virus problem, and as a virus problem, it can only be solved through scientific intervention such as vaccines. John believes that the measures taken by central banks may cause more harm than good and that over the next 4 weeks we will see COVID-19 tip its hand to show us the full extent of its impact.

In this special episode of Inside the Rope, David joins John Hempton of Bronte Capital to discuss both the health and economic implications that Coronavirus may have on the world and financial markets. Bronte was one of a few global equity managers to profit in February through the addition of downside market protection, in a time when volatility was priced at less than a quarter of what it is now trading at.

However, aside from the health implications and recent volatility in financial markets, John doesn’t think it changes much for investors that are sensibly invested. His recommendation to such investors, sit it out.

Chris joins David in this special episode to discuss the Coronavirus, housing markets, private debt and LIC stamping fees.

Chris is of the view that the increased market volatility presents opportunities for investors, however they must be cautious. He highlights the implications on financial markets posed by Coronavirus and speculates that whilst the Chinese may surprise with an early vaccine we should conservatively assume that it will be 12+ months away.

Given this and current market expectations, Chris believes that the RBA will likely cut the cash rate by 25bp in April and will begin QE in a matter of time... and as it's almost Un-Australian to discuss cash rates without a mention of property, Chris is expecting Australian property prices to rise anywhere from 20% to 30% throughout the cycle (trough to peak, including the 10%+ we have already seen) but believes that an inflationary cycle could see them rapidly rerate down by up to 40%.