Iran's Gambit

In the Islamic Republic, there is no government. Everyone is a member of the opposition when there is public criticism of the regime's performance. Rear Admiral Ali Shamkheni, Supreme National Security Council secretary from 2013 to 2023 is one of the few exceptions to this rule, and today's program is dedicated to his answers to critical questions from a group of students visiting Nour News Agency's headquarters at the Supreme National Security Council.

Collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime and manifest defeat of the Revolutionary Guard's strategy in Syria have exposed the organization to public critique in Iran. While still short of demanding accountability, reformist politicians are openly calling for civilian control over the military, and civilian supremacy in national security decision-making. There is, however, no indication that the Revolutionary Guard leadership is willing to voluntarily subject itself to civilian control or give up its decisive influence over national security decision-making. On the contrary, as evident on the front page of Revolutionary Guard mouthpiece Javan newspaper, the Guard is likely to use the Judiciary to prosecute and terrorize critics.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei showed defiance in defeat in his first public statement in the wake of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Indirectly, he accused the new rulers of Syria of being agents of the United States and Israel. Furthermore, he claimed Iran was willing, but incapable of airlifting troops to Syria due to U.S. and Israel closing the skies over Syria to Iranian airplanes. He further added that former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had not requested military assistance from Iran. Khamenei used many a minute talking of invulnerability of the Axis of Resistance, his term for what remains of Iran's proxies, despite collapse of the Assad regime, but his final warnings against those, who try to "demoralize" the Iranian public prove what is evident for all to see: the Assad regime's collapse was Iran's defeat, and defeat of Iran's proxy strategy.

On Asr-e Iran's satirical commentary on the 95% of Syrian voters, who voted for Bashar al-Assad in the May 2021 presidential election in Syria, but failed to support him in the face of armed opponents; and Fars News Agency's involuntarily commical comment on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urging Assad to "democratise Syria". The program also features an English translation of an undated interview by Ahmed hussein al-Shara, Tahrir al-Sham group leader, who in an undated interview threatened to "bring the war to Iran" by inciting Iran's ethnic and religious minorities against the central government in Tehran. Finally, the program features a translation of Foreign Minister Dr. Abbas Araghchi's interviw with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, in which he assured the viewers that changes in Syria will not significantly weaken the Axis of Resistance.

Fiasco!

Iran's national security strategy is evident. Lebanese Hezbollah, Tehran's most prominent proxy, is in disarray, while the Assad regime in Syria, once a linchpin for the strategic overland corridor linking Iran to Lebanon via Iraq, is on the verge of either disintegration or defection from Iran's camp. Today, rather than delving into real-time updates from Syria or elsewhere which other media do much better than yours truly, I will point at a few really simple economic factors driving the unraveling of Iran's geopolitical strategy.

If you've been keeping an eye on global developments, as I assume many of you have, you're likely aware of the seismic shift in Syria: Aleppo has fallen under the control of Tahrir al-Sham, a faction designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the United States in May 2018. While the rapidity of this development may have taken some by surprise, the evolving power dynamics in Syria were long evident. Lebanese Hezbollah, a strategic ally of Syria and a linchpin in Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance, is in disarray. Having incurred devastating losses in Lebanon, it has redeployed many of its forces from Syria to Lebanon to confront perceived threats from Israel. Iran, Hezbollah's primary patron, is increasingly constrained in financing its regional alliances, while Russia, whose aerial campaigns were instrumental in preserving the Assad regime, has deprioritized Syria amid its protracted conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, the Assad regime, potentially under Israeli pressure and enticed by wealthy Arab states, has sought to distance itself from Tehran, potentially even curtailing arms transfers to Hezbollah. With the United States maintaining only a minimal military footprint in Syria and a likely complete withdrawal once President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office, the geopolitical calculus has shifted. Tahrir al-Sham, reportedly backed by Turkey, has seized the opportunity to expand its territorial gains in this fragmented and volatile environment.

Today, we'll delve into Iranian media reactions to these developments and assess the broader implications of losing northern Syria for Tehran's defense doctrine – which I can assure you, is in ruins.

In today's program, I'll spend a few minutes critiquing the Revolutionary Guard-affiliated media's preposterous commentary on the ceasefire in Lebanon. However, I won't dwell on these absurdities for too long. Instead, I'll transition to discussing an interview in Etemad newspaper with Mr. Mohsen Mir-Damadi, a reformist political activist, who provides an astute and pragmatic assessment of the state of Iran-U.S. relations.

Today's program focuses on a story from Jamaran News Agency, which may not be a familiar name to most of you, but it represents a noteworthy institution expressing the perspectives of the household of the late Grand Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. For context, "Jamaran" refers to a village situated on the mountain slopes of northern Tehran, where Grand Ayatollah Khomeini's compound was located during the Iran-Iraq War. At that time, Grand Ayatollah Khomeini was often referred to as "Pir-e Jamaran," or the Old Man of Jamaran. While I am not entirely convinced that members of the Khomeini household harbor explicit political ambitions—having lost the post-Khomeini power struggle to Messrs. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ali Khamenei—it seems Mr. Hassan Khomeini, the most prominent figure of the Khomeini clan, is intent on remaining relevant. This is evident in Jamaran News publishing quality interviews with figures who held key public offices in the 1980s.

Yesterday, Jamaran News released an interview with Hojjat al-Eslam Seyyed Mahmoud Alavi, a politician who began his career in the 1980s and rose to prominence under President Hassan Rouhani. Mr. Alavi served as Minister of Intelligence from 2013 to 2021. Now, I can imagine what some of you might be thinking at the mention of a Minister of Intelligence in the Islamic Republic of Iran—perhaps picturing a figure combining Dostoevsky's Grand Inquisitor with the KGB. Yet, believe it or not, Mr. Alavi is known as an intellectual, and Iran's Ministry of Intelligence, for the most part, operates as a professional institution.

Currently, Mr. Alavi serves as an adviser to President Masoud Pezeshkian on matters concerning ethnic minorities, religion, and religious sects. Yesterday, he attended a book launch for a publication titled Oral History Biographies of Nuclear Martyrs, dedicated to Iran's nuclear scientists who were assassinated, allegedly by Israeli intelligence.

Today, my focus is on two articles featured in yesterday's edition of Sazandegi newspaper, a publication representing the technocratic elites of Iran. The editor and most of the columnists associated with this newspaper have held governmental responsibilities, which grants them a distinctly pragmatic approach to politics compared to the average Iranian journalist, who is typically oppositional—oppositional to the Cabinet, or oppositional to the opposition! In contrast, Sazandegi adopts a perspective focused on practical political solutions.

Yesterday's edition of the newspaper featured two particularly intriguing articles—an uncommon occurrence in any daily publication. It's not every day you find two exceptional articles even in The New York Times, let alone elsewhere.

The first article delves into the political resurgence of Mr. Ali Larijani, the former parliamentary speaker and erstwhile Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Mr. Larijani has re-emerged in Iranian politics and appears highly active in signaling toward the United States. The second article discusses the policy options of the incoming administration of U.S. President-Elect Donald J. Trump vis-à-vis Iran.