You don’t hear the political commentators and political scientists put it this way, but Labour is toast.

That’s according to new analysis by the NZ Herald, which has found there is now almost no chance of Labour and the Greens getting over the line by polling day and a National-Act coalition is most likely to be in government after the election in October.

Unless, something in particular happens. Something very specific. And I’ll tell you what I think that is shortly.

First though - what the Herald has done with its poll of polls, is take data from multiple public opinion polls and previous election results to get a feel for what might happen on election night.

It includes the findings of the latest Talbot Mills corporate poll which has seen support for Labour fall five points to 31 per cent - its lowest rating in that particular poll since at least 2019.

National is up one point to 36 per cent and it’s the first time since the 2017 election that Talbot Mills has had the centre-right five points ahead of the centre-left.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins says the result is “disappointing” and he's taking it seriously. He says the party needs to return to what he calls its "laser-like focus".

Here’s what he said about the poll result to reporters travelling with him in Europe. “It is an indication that New Zealanders don’t feel like we’ve been focused on the issues that they want us to be focused on, and I think that’s a message that the whole of the Labour Party will hear.”

Well, he’ll be hoping so, anyway. Although, there’s no guarantee is there? Considering the way some of Chris Hipkins’ ministers have seemed hellbent on de-railing things over the last couple of months.

So that’s the Talbot Mills poll. But back to the Herald’s poll of polls which reckons that, once all the numbers from all of the polls and once all coalition possibilities are considered, a National-Act coalition is the most likely outcome on polling day, giving it a probability rating of 57 percent.

And what does it say about the probability of Labour and the Greens forming the next coalition government? According to the Herald’s analysis, it’s just a 23 percent probability.

How more stark could you get?

It's saying - based on all of the analysis of polls and earlier election results - that if an election was held this weekend, there’d be a 57 percent probability of National and ACT being in a position to form a government; and just a 23 percent probability of Labour and the Greens having the support to form a coalition government.

Which is why the only conclusion you can take from those numbers, is that Labour is toast and Chris Hipkins better be making the most of the European trip he’s on at the moment.

Because, based on this extensive analysis by the Herald, the next time Hipkins is over there - he’ll be paying for everything himself and not getting to hang out with the type of people he’s hanging out with at the moment.

Unless, one particular thing happens. If it does, then I think Labour might just get another shot at government. But this, I reckon, is its only potential saving grace.

And, unfortunately for Labour, it’s not something it can control. It’s not a new flagship policy, it’s not money being thrown around left, right and centre. The only way I can see Labour defying the analysis and defying predictions from the NZ Herald’s latest poll of polls, is if voters take just five minutes to consider what a disaster a National/Act coalition would be.

That’s the only way I see Labour making a comeback from this. Because if you’re prepared to do it, and really think about the likelihood of Christopher Luxon and David Seymour being anything other than a coalition of chaos, then you may not be so quick to write Labour off.

Seymour himself has said publicly that he’s not hung up on being in government and would be quite happy to sit on the cross-benches. Because he’s not going to support National on something if he thinks it’s a dumb idea.

But if he’s in coalition with them - imagine the bunfights. And there will be bunfights because, so far anyway, when asked about its view on some of ACT’s recent policy announcements, the National Party has been all vanilla and non-committal and told us that it’ll wait until it’s in a position to form a government with ACT before it decides what it thinks about its policies.

Which is like saying to someone that you’ll only tell them whether you love them or not once you’re married.

Which is why I’m in no doubt that a National/Act combo is a coalition of chaos-in-waiting. And if enough people wake-up and realise that, then Labour definitely has a chance of a third term in government. But that’s the only thing that I reckon could save it, at this stage.

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