John Zogby

Today, let’s discuss the accuracy of recent election polls, highlighting the narrow margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Polls generally fell within the margin of error as the votes are tallied.

Next, let’s talk about Trump’s cabinet appointments. Is he delivering on teh promise of shaking up the government or have these choices gone too far already with candidates mired in controversy and scandal?

Finally we’ll talk about the evolution of populism in American politics, and the importance of allowing newly elected officials the opportunity to prove themselves before passing judgment, and the need for the opposing party to regroup and try and reevaluate its strategy moving forward.

Thanks for tuning in – and we’ll see you next time.

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The post The Zogby Report | 11.22.24 – Trump’s Appointments and Disappointments? appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Something has happened to the Democratic Party….

Today, let’s analyze the results and implications of the election. Democrat Joe Biden won 81.2 million votes in 2020, while Kamala Harris received 71.8 million votes in this election, showing a loss of over 9 million Democratic votes.

Conversely, Donald Trump increased his voter base, receiving 75.1 million votes compared to 74.2 million in 2020, indicating a significant shift in voter turnout and enthusiasm between the two parties.

We’ll get into various exit poll statistics, revealing a gender gap, the unexpected Republican win among veterans and Catholics, and Trump’s strong performance among certain demographics such as Latinos, young voters, and black men.

Finally – let’s look at the current political landscape and the challenges and responsibilities facing both parties moving forward.

Don’t miss out recent article in The Guardian

The post The Zogby Report | 11.12.24 – A Pre-Autopsy for the Democrats appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

We’re excited to share our last poll of the 2024 Races. Data presented includes topline data on The Five-way horserace and Two-way horse race, voters’ strength of support for their candidate, will voters accept or protest results if their candidate loses, top issues driving their decision to vote, who will control Congress, which candidate handles better the top issues, results from key cohorts like independents, suburban women, the black vote, Hispanic vote, youth vote, early voters vs. election day voters and so much more!

The post The Zogby 2024 Election Eve Poll Webinar appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Today on the podcast let’s talk about late decision makers. A recent poll found that those who made up their minds within the last month were tipping towards Harris.

The suggesting from the poll is that late-breaking decision makers may break for Kamala Harris.  We’re not ready to agree with that but it does appear that what we’ve been saying right along is a possibility – the race may not be as close as the polls say, similar to what has happened in the Obama Romney election of 2008.

The 2nd poll we’re looking at is stark. The gender gap between young men and young woman is huge. Trump leads handsomely among young men, and Harris leads among young women. So who will turn out and possibly tip the election?

Let’s also look at the messages that are being pitched at the undecided voters, particularly as it relates to Trump. Is Harris spending too much time attacking Trump rather than her vision for the country?

Finally – sign up for our Election Eve Webinar! We’ll reveal out final numbers the day before the election at noon eastern. You can sign up for the live webinar, as well as an offer for you to get your own questions answered as part of that final poll. More details here >

Some of what you’ll get at the webinar include:

The post The Zogby Report | 10.25.24 – Who Will Be The Late Breaking Decision Makers appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

The Zogby Report | 10.17.24 – Live From SUNY Jefferson

In this special Live edition of the Zogby report from SUNY Jefferson in Watertown, NY John and Jeremy analyze the critical facets shaping the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

They delve into the importance of opinion research, public opinion complexities, and community values, highlighting the contributions of the Center for Community Studies at SUNY Jefferson. 

The discussion covers historical parallels with 1968, the unpredictable nature of polling data, and the influential role of young voters, particularly young women. They also examine the impact of recent geopolitical events and the evolving dynamics within the Democratic Party. 

They’ll also describe how young people are the key to either candidate winning this November and explore the demographic divides and key issues like reproductive rights that could sway voter decisions.

Thanks for tuning in and we’ll see you next time.

The post The Zogby Report | 10.17.24 – Live From SUNY Jefferson appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

We’re essentially 25 days out from Election Day and a lot of people have voted already. The war in the Middle East began a year ago and today we’re looking at how big an issue is Gaza for voters? While it does appear in the top 10 issues in most polling, it doesn’t appear in the top 3 issues. However when we poll Arab Americans, progressives and young women, the war in Gaza IS one of the top issues. This is particularly true in Michigan.

Since Harris jumped into the race, she has basically opted to support Biden’s policies in support of Israel, while advocating for a ceasefire. In our most recent poll, we discovered that if Harris were to demand a cease fire and use the withholding of American made weapons as leverage, that she would gain support with those groups.

How does messaging figure into how Trump and Harris are trying to articulate their positions as it release to Arab Americans particularly in Michigan and Pennsylvania? How do fluctuations int he polls reflect fluctuations in the language?

As always we welcome your thoughts, and thank you for tuning in. See you next time.

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The post The Zogby Report | 10.11.24 – Is Gaza Really An Issue? appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

The first time we ever heard the term October Surprise was in 1972 in the race between Nixon and McGovern. There was a feeling that Nixon would come up with some event or move that would shape the election.

In previous Octobers, we’d see lots of swinging back and forth with leads of 4 or 5 points, and while we’re seeing some swinging back and forth, it’s nowhere near the amount of movement seen in those previous elections. Will it stay this way or will the dam break the week before the election with a swing at the last minute towards one candidate or the other?

We’re in a very strange situation right now with Harris being catapulted into the spotlight, running a campaign on hope, optimism and joy. Meanwhile, Trump has run on a vision of a dystopian future with crime ridden cities, that only he can fix.

And in the middle, many moderates are torn between a perception that it’s possible Trump would be better on some economic issues, and being turned off by the anger and vitriol of his campaign.

What effect will the recent strikes at the ports have on pricing or the economy? What about the ground invasion of Lebanon? Have we already seen the October surprise? What do you think?

Have a great week and we’ll see you next time.

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The post The Zogby Report | 10.01.24 – Did we just witness an October Surprise? appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

There’s no question that Kamala Harris received a small bump from the convention and the debate, and after a 2nd assassination attempt on Trump the poll is still tied at 47% to 47%. The question we have though – is the race really moving at all? In battleground states, each candidate may have a small lead, but well within the margin of error. Because of these tiny changes are we over-reporting a race that is not moving and where neither candidate is really leading?

At the end of the day, this is a close race, and the possibility still exists for an October surprise or (another) black swan event. What does the economy do after the Fed’s rate cut, what happens in the Middle East, and what develops in Ukraine?  Those events will continue to shape the race and it’s simply a fool’s errand to make any solid predictions in a race this tight.

We’ll also take a look at some previous tight national elections that broke in the final days and weeks and discuss what we might learn from them.

Have a great week and we’ll see you next time.

Read a transcript of this episode > 

Purchase John Zogby’s new book:

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Amazon: 

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The post The Zogby Report | 09.20.24 – He Who Predicts is a Fool appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Last night’s debate was hotly anticipated, with an immense amount of pressure particularly on Vice President Harris. She was coached well and certainly created stark contrast in messaging and tone between herself and Trump. Both candidates brought completely different experiences and outlooks of the current and future America.

There didn’t appear to be any knockout blows, but Harris’ performance was solid. She did not however do herself any favors on issues of the economy and fracking.

Trump landed some very but those very real points may have been overshadowed by his comments around eating pets and his rally size.

It is true that a majority of Americans believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction – so let’s also discuss why some Americans are more optimistic than others.

The question is – will this debate result in any movement in the polls? Not likely.

Read a transcript of this episode > 

The post The Zogby Report | 09.11.24 – The Day After The Debate appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Let’s talk politics today and get into the Presidential race. We’ll start with two conflicting articles

A recent article caught our eye declaring that 18% of voters that are undecided – tend to be more men than women. This is counter-intuitive. And of those undecided men a large portion were under 35. How can this be? The article points to anxiety about young mens’ role in modern society and this is one reason why many find Trump more appealing.

Is this race may be representative of the pinnacle of our division? Young vs. old, liberal vs. conservative, urban vs. rural? Or are voter more complex and where might we find more agreement than disagreement?

Let us know what you think. Are pundits looking at the electorate through a detailed enough lens? How do you see the state of the race? Drop us a comment or an email. We love hearing from you.

Read a transcript of this episode > 

Purchase John Zogby’s new book:

Rowman & Littlefield: 

Amazon

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The post The Zogby Report | 09.05.24 – A Closer Look at Who Voters Really Are appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.