John Zogby

The first time we ever heard the term October Surprise was in 1972 in the race between Nixon and McGovern. There was a feeling that Nixon would come up with some event or move that would shape the election.

In previous Octobers, we’d see lots of swinging back and forth with leads of 4 or 5 points, and while we’re seeing some swinging back and forth, it’s nowhere near the amount of movement seen in those previous elections. Will it stay this way or will the dam break the week before the election with a swing at the last minute towards one candidate or the other?

We’re in a very strange situation right now with Harris being catapulted into the spotlight, running a campaign on hope, optimism and joy. Meanwhile, Trump has run on a vision of a dystopian future with crime ridden cities, that only he can fix.

And in the middle, many moderates are torn between a perception that it’s possible Trump would be better on some economic issues, and being turned off by the anger and vitriol of his campaign.

What effect will the recent strikes at the ports have on pricing or the economy? What about the ground invasion of Lebanon? Have we already seen the October surprise? What do you think?

Have a great week and we’ll see you next time.

Read a transcript of this episode > 

Purchase John Zogby’s new book:

Rowman & Littlefield:

Amazon: 

Barnes & Noble: 

The post The Zogby Report | 10.01.24 – Did we just witness an October Surprise? appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

There’s no question that Kamala Harris received a small bump from the convention and the debate, and after a 2nd assassination attempt on Trump the poll is still tied at 47% to 47%. The question we have though – is the race really moving at all? In battleground states, each candidate may have a small lead, but well within the margin of error. Because of these tiny changes are we over-reporting a race that is not moving and where neither candidate is really leading?

At the end of the day, this is a close race, and the possibility still exists for an October surprise or (another) black swan event. What does the economy do after the Fed’s rate cut, what happens in the Middle East, and what develops in Ukraine?  Those events will continue to shape the race and it’s simply a fool’s errand to make any solid predictions in a race this tight.

We’ll also take a look at some previous tight national elections that broke in the final days and weeks and discuss what we might learn from them.

Have a great week and we’ll see you next time.

Read a transcript of this episode > 

Purchase John Zogby’s new book:

Rowman & Littlefield:

Amazon: 

Barnes & Noble: 

The post The Zogby Report | 09.20.24 – He Who Predicts is a Fool appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Last night’s debate was hotly anticipated, with an immense amount of pressure particularly on Vice President Harris. She was coached well and certainly created stark contrast in messaging and tone between herself and Trump. Both candidates brought completely different experiences and outlooks of the current and future America.

There didn’t appear to be any knockout blows, but Harris’ performance was solid. She did not however do herself any favors on issues of the economy and fracking.

Trump landed some very but those very real points may have been overshadowed by his comments around eating pets and his rally size.

It is true that a majority of Americans believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction – so let’s also discuss why some Americans are more optimistic than others.

The question is – will this debate result in any movement in the polls? Not likely.

Read a transcript of this episode > 

The post The Zogby Report | 09.11.24 – The Day After The Debate appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Let’s talk politics today and get into the Presidential race. We’ll start with two conflicting articles

A recent article caught our eye declaring that 18% of voters that are undecided – tend to be more men than women. This is counter-intuitive. And of those undecided men a large portion were under 35. How can this be? The article points to anxiety about young mens’ role in modern society and this is one reason why many find Trump more appealing.

Is this race may be representative of the pinnacle of our division? Young vs. old, liberal vs. conservative, urban vs. rural? Or are voter more complex and where might we find more agreement than disagreement?

Let us know what you think. Are pundits looking at the electorate through a detailed enough lens? How do you see the state of the race? Drop us a comment or an email. We love hearing from you.

Read a transcript of this episode > 

Purchase John Zogby’s new book:

Rowman & Littlefield: 

Amazon

Barnes & Noble: 

The post The Zogby Report | 09.05.24 – A Closer Look at Who Voters Really Are appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Today we’re going to start off with some big news. John’s new book “Beyond The Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should” is available at Amazon, Barnes and Noble and More.

Yesterday was also the first major press interview with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz on CNN. They still have momentum and the interview was one that attempted to keep that momentum moving, and avoid any unforced errors.

In the grand scheme of things no matter what poll you look at – it’s a close race. Let’s look at some of the methodologies that major polling organizations are using and see where they may be missing the mark.

What we can infer is that Harris has put much of the southern rim back in play and she does in fact have momentum. If you look at the polling averages, Trump was at 46.6. on 6/25 – and he’s still there as of yesterday – even after the Kennedy endorsements.

Thanks for tuning in and we’ll see you soon.

Purchase John Zogby’s new book:

Rowman & Littlefield:

Amazon:

Barnes & Noble: 

Read a Transcript of this Episode > 

The post The Zogby Report | 08.30.24 – Beyond The Horse Race appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Today on the podcast let’s update the state of the race. We don’t know who’s going to win but we’ll give you how we see the state of the contest after a historic summer or change.

The Harris ticket’s biggest challenge out of the gate has been party unity – and so far it looks like they’ve succeeded. Going into the convention this week, the different factions of the party appear to be coalescing around Harris and Walz.

Nationally – in 5 of the 6 recent polls released, Harris is within the margin of error or leading. She’s still in the honeymoon phase though and the battleground states are also much more competitive.

No matter what any poll or aggregation is saying right now –  anything can happen.

Read a transcript of this episode >

The post The Zogby Report | 08.20.24 – Anything Can Happen appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

We’re back on the heels of President Biden stepping down from the 2024 race. Let’s face it – it’s late in the game, so let’s talk about the process of Biden’s decision to leave and the process of moving forward.

Will Kamala Harris become the nominee officially? She’s begun the work of contacting delegates, state party leaders and major donors – all of which seem to be coming in.

Polling just prior to Biden’s announcement showed that Vice President Harris was within 1.7 points of Trump (within the margin of error). So does Harris change the shape of the race as the new polls come out?

Do any of the potential VP candidates add enough value to slow or stop the momentum that Trump currently has been experiencing?

Read a transcript of this episode >

The post The Zogby Report | 07.22.24 – It’s Kamala appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Like those across the country we’re formulating our own thoughts about the tragic events over the weekend. No matter what your feelings are about any of the candidates running for office – this is terrible.

Is there a world where both Biden and Trump drop out and if so, what would that do to the rhetoric and the prospective for a more unified nation?

What does this event say about access to guns and the uncompromising support for the 2nd amendment appearing to take precedent over the 1st or the 4th?

There is a problem with discourse in this country and it starts from the top. Is the leadership of either party really prepared to tone down the rhetoric?

We welcome your thoughts and will be following this story very closely.

Read a transcript of this episode >

The post The Zogby Report | 07.15.24 – Time For Both To Drop Out? appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

The presidential race has shifted the conversation dramatically after the 1st debate to whether or not Joe Biden should remain the Democratic nominee. Behind closed doors and increasingly in public, law makers, donors, major media organizations and members of the public are calling for a plan B.

So what should Biden do? He should bow out. The question now is when and how. We’ll lay out the our thoughts on the current situation and discuss what we think the likely outcome is.

What about you? Should Biden stay or go? Send us an email or leave us a comment. Have a great week.

Read a transcript of this episode > 

The post The Zogby Report | 07.08.24 – The Clash: Should I Stay Or Should I Go? appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

It’s the morning after the great debate and we need to discuss what happened. If there’s one word that can describe the debate that hasn’t been used thus far – it’s disturbing.

Neither of the nominees showed they have a legitimate claim to be president of the United States based on this performance.

President Biden was over-briefed, throwing statistics and numbers that missed the mark. Combine that with a terrible opening, and Joe Biden did not earn a 2nd term here.

Trump degenerated into such a multitude of lies that one could not keep up with them.

Is the most patriotic thing Biden could do is bow out?

Polls first things are showing that Trump performed better but this could be mostly because of how poor Biden’s performance was, not that Trump performed well. This was not a debate, this was a debacle.

What were your thoughts on last night’s debate? Let us know and we’ll see you next time.

Read a transcript of this episode > 

The post The Zogby Report | 06.28.24 – A Disturbing Debate appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.