The Zogby Report | 10.17.24 – Live From SUNY Jefferson

In this special Live edition of the Zogby report from SUNY Jefferson in Watertown, NY John and Jeremy analyze the critical facets shaping the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

They delve into the importance of opinion research, public opinion complexities, and community values, highlighting the contributions of the Center for Community Studies at SUNY Jefferson. 

The discussion covers historical parallels with 1968, the unpredictable nature of polling data, and the influential role of young voters, particularly young women. They also examine the impact of recent geopolitical events and the evolving dynamics within the Democratic Party. 

They’ll also describe how young people are the key to either candidate winning this November and explore the demographic divides and key issues like reproductive rights that could sway voter decisions.

Thanks for tuning in and we’ll see you next time.

The post The Zogby Report | 10.17.24 – Live From SUNY Jefferson appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

We’re essentially 25 days out from Election Day and a lot of people have voted already. The war in the Middle East began a year ago and today we’re looking at how big an issue is Gaza for voters? While it does appear in the top 10 issues in most polling, it doesn’t appear in the top 3 issues. However when we poll Arab Americans, progressives and young women, the war in Gaza IS one of the top issues. This is particularly true in Michigan.

Since Harris jumped into the race, she has basically opted to support Biden’s policies in support of Israel, while advocating for a ceasefire. In our most recent poll, we discovered that if Harris were to demand a cease fire and use the withholding of American made weapons as leverage, that she would gain support with those groups.

How does messaging figure into how Trump and Harris are trying to articulate their positions as it release to Arab Americans particularly in Michigan and Pennsylvania? How do fluctuations int he polls reflect fluctuations in the language?

As always we welcome your thoughts, and thank you for tuning in. See you next time.

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The post The Zogby Report | 10.11.24 – Is Gaza Really An Issue? appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

The first time we ever heard the term October Surprise was in 1972 in the race between Nixon and McGovern. There was a feeling that Nixon would come up with some event or move that would shape the election.

In previous Octobers, we’d see lots of swinging back and forth with leads of 4 or 5 points, and while we’re seeing some swinging back and forth, it’s nowhere near the amount of movement seen in those previous elections. Will it stay this way or will the dam break the week before the election with a swing at the last minute towards one candidate or the other?

We’re in a very strange situation right now with Harris being catapulted into the spotlight, running a campaign on hope, optimism and joy. Meanwhile, Trump has run on a vision of a dystopian future with crime ridden cities, that only he can fix.

And in the middle, many moderates are torn between a perception that it’s possible Trump would be better on some economic issues, and being turned off by the anger and vitriol of his campaign.

What effect will the recent strikes at the ports have on pricing or the economy? What about the ground invasion of Lebanon? Have we already seen the October surprise? What do you think?

Have a great week and we’ll see you next time.

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The post The Zogby Report | 10.01.24 – Did we just witness an October Surprise? appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

There’s no question that Kamala Harris received a small bump from the convention and the debate, and after a 2nd assassination attempt on Trump the poll is still tied at 47% to 47%. The question we have though – is the race really moving at all? In battleground states, each candidate may have a small lead, but well within the margin of error. Because of these tiny changes are we over-reporting a race that is not moving and where neither candidate is really leading?

At the end of the day, this is a close race, and the possibility still exists for an October surprise or (another) black swan event. What does the economy do after the Fed’s rate cut, what happens in the Middle East, and what develops in Ukraine?  Those events will continue to shape the race and it’s simply a fool’s errand to make any solid predictions in a race this tight.

We’ll also take a look at some previous tight national elections that broke in the final days and weeks and discuss what we might learn from them.

Have a great week and we’ll see you next time.

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The post The Zogby Report | 09.20.24 – He Who Predicts is a Fool appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Last night’s debate was hotly anticipated, with an immense amount of pressure particularly on Vice President Harris. She was coached well and certainly created stark contrast in messaging and tone between herself and Trump. Both candidates brought completely different experiences and outlooks of the current and future America.

There didn’t appear to be any knockout blows, but Harris’ performance was solid. She did not however do herself any favors on issues of the economy and fracking.

Trump landed some very but those very real points may have been overshadowed by his comments around eating pets and his rally size.

It is true that a majority of Americans believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction – so let’s also discuss why some Americans are more optimistic than others.

The question is – will this debate result in any movement in the polls? Not likely.

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The post The Zogby Report | 09.11.24 – The Day After The Debate appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Let’s talk politics today and get into the Presidential race. We’ll start with two conflicting articles

A recent article caught our eye declaring that 18% of voters that are undecided – tend to be more men than women. This is counter-intuitive. And of those undecided men a large portion were under 35. How can this be? The article points to anxiety about young mens’ role in modern society and this is one reason why many find Trump more appealing.

Is this race may be representative of the pinnacle of our division? Young vs. old, liberal vs. conservative, urban vs. rural? Or are voter more complex and where might we find more agreement than disagreement?

Let us know what you think. Are pundits looking at the electorate through a detailed enough lens? How do you see the state of the race? Drop us a comment or an email. We love hearing from you.

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The post The Zogby Report | 09.05.24 – A Closer Look at Who Voters Really Are appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Today we’re going to start off with some big news. John’s new book “Beyond The Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should” is available at Amazon, Barnes and Noble and More.

Yesterday was also the first major press interview with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz on CNN. They still have momentum and the interview was one that attempted to keep that momentum moving, and avoid any unforced errors.

In the grand scheme of things no matter what poll you look at – it’s a close race. Let’s look at some of the methodologies that major polling organizations are using and see where they may be missing the mark.

What we can infer is that Harris has put much of the southern rim back in play and she does in fact have momentum. If you look at the polling averages, Trump was at 46.6. on 6/25 – and he’s still there as of yesterday – even after the Kennedy endorsements.

Thanks for tuning in and we’ll see you soon.

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Read a Transcript of this Episode > 

The post The Zogby Report | 08.30.24 – Beyond The Horse Race appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Today on the podcast let’s update the state of the race. We don’t know who’s going to win but we’ll give you how we see the state of the contest after a historic summer or change.

The Harris ticket’s biggest challenge out of the gate has been party unity – and so far it looks like they’ve succeeded. Going into the convention this week, the different factions of the party appear to be coalescing around Harris and Walz.

Nationally – in 5 of the 6 recent polls released, Harris is within the margin of error or leading. She’s still in the honeymoon phase though and the battleground states are also much more competitive.

No matter what any poll or aggregation is saying right now –  anything can happen.

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The post The Zogby Report | 08.20.24 – Anything Can Happen appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

We’re back on the heels of President Biden stepping down from the 2024 race. Let’s face it – it’s late in the game, so let’s talk about the process of Biden’s decision to leave and the process of moving forward.

Will Kamala Harris become the nominee officially? She’s begun the work of contacting delegates, state party leaders and major donors – all of which seem to be coming in.

Polling just prior to Biden’s announcement showed that Vice President Harris was within 1.7 points of Trump (within the margin of error). So does Harris change the shape of the race as the new polls come out?

Do any of the potential VP candidates add enough value to slow or stop the momentum that Trump currently has been experiencing?

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The post The Zogby Report | 07.22.24 – It’s Kamala appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.

Like those across the country we’re formulating our own thoughts about the tragic events over the weekend. No matter what your feelings are about any of the candidates running for office – this is terrible.

Is there a world where both Biden and Trump drop out and if so, what would that do to the rhetoric and the prospective for a more unified nation?

What does this event say about access to guns and the uncompromising support for the 2nd amendment appearing to take precedent over the 1st or the 4th?

There is a problem with discourse in this country and it starts from the top. Is the leadership of either party really prepared to tone down the rhetoric?

We welcome your thoughts and will be following this story very closely.

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The post The Zogby Report | 07.15.24 – Time For Both To Drop Out? appeared first on John Zogby Strategies.