In March, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell asserted that he and his colleagues hoped that interest rate increases would help the economy achieve a soft landing, with inflation coming down and unemployment holding steady. But inflation is higher, the labour market is tighter, and real rates are more negative than in past periods when the Fed raised rates without causing a recession. So what are the odds that a soft landing is actually possible? And what does history tell us about the various scenarios we could see playing out in the coming months? We’re joined again today by Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, to make sense of the latest data he is watching, along with relevant historical analogs. Also, per usual, Jurrien will be sharing some charts, so please head to @TimmerFidelity on Twitter to follow along.

Recorded on April 4, 2022.

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