A 700% increase in new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. increases concerns of possible new restrictions and lockdowns. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, shares his thoughts on how a fourth wave could affect the U.S. economy and the market implications of this. Jurrien says the U.S. is one of the most open economies. The states with the highest number of new cases generally have the lowest vaccination rates, but are increasing their vaccinations at the highest rates. Jurrien believes the second act of the value or reflation trade will likely happen when the fourth wave reverses and momentum indicators start to pick up again. He also shares his thoughts on financials and technology in the reflation trade. Jurrien says he has learned that even with the rotation into value, one can see how strongly large-cap tech has returned.

Recorded on August 16, 2021.