On today’s program, Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer discusses what a strong earnings season could mean for bull market optimists and touches on next week's Fed announcement. Jurrien explains to host Pamela Ritchie that last week’s Consumer Price Index report was very bullish, with CPI rising in the U.S. at a rate of only 3%.  If the markets declare victory too soon, he says, financial conditions will loosen, and investors may see a continuation of the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric.  Since the market is pricing in an eventual pivot back to a three and a half percent neutral rate, he says that the Fed will remain restrictive longer than expected.  So are we currently in a bull market?  Jurrien says it’s never really known in real time, by the time we know it's too late to do anything. Historically, when a bear market rally retraces more than roughly half of the preceding decline, it is a new bull market with very few rare exceptions.  He adds if there was a time that something could be different it’s in this post-pandemic time.

Recorded on July 17, 2023.

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