As markets adjust and we transition from the early cycle to the mid-cycle, all eyes are on the central bank's next move. Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, is back on the program to discuss the Fed's next likely move and share the latest data, with the help of historical analogs. Jurrien believes we are transitioning from the liquidity-driven phase of the bull market, and the rotation now has reversed back into growth and bonds. The Fed has signalled that interest rates could be raised in 2023. Before raising interest rates, the Fed must taper asset prices. Jurrien shares that the Fed may not want to have the conversation of the interest rates and tapering at the Jackson Hole meeting in August, noting that they may not want to spark any inflationary fears. Jurrien also adds that although growth is favourable, value and small caps may return if inflation ends up sticky because they are better inflation hedges. Follow along with Jurrien's charts on Twitter: @TimmerFidelity

Recorded on July 19, 2021.

Transcript (PDF): https://www.fidelity.ca/cs/Satellite/doc/transcript-podcast-timmer-global-macro-19jul2021.pdf