Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, shares his thoughts on recent global macro and business cycle trends as we close out November 2021. Jurrien discusses the conundrum that exists around low nominal yields despite higher expected inflation and a return to near-full capacity. He compares our current late-cycle position to that which we experienced in 2015/2016, and the potential to revert to a mid-cycle position in 2022 or follow the cycle into recession. He mentions the possibility of a cycle extension under more structural inflation conditions where real returns remain negative driving consumers and businesses to lever up and maximize purchasing power. Jurrien shares his thoughts on potential impacts to the U.S. dollar, inflation linked securities, commodities, and recent investment style trends. He also speaks about potential fiscal policy movements relating to corporate taxes and a potential buyback tax and how this could impact equities in the context of rising earnings, dividends and buybacks. Additionally, Jurrien discusses the potential for gold, silver & Bitcoin to benefit if inflation expectations remain high and real yields remain at their current negative levels.

Recorded on November 22, 2021.

Transcript (PDF): https://www.fidelity.ca/cs/Satellite/doc/transcript_podcast_fidelityconnects_timmer_22nov.pdf