Today we check in with Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer as he discusses the latest developments from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, how alternatives may fit in your portfolio, and if we are in fact in a bear market bounce. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at the end of its policy meeting last week. The Fed acknowledged that there are various lag effects, and that inflation is coming down signaling a pause and the need to become more data dependent. Jurrien says the narrative has moved on from this to the term premiums in the bond markets and how far the bond yields must go, and what is the interplay between monetary and fiscal policy? He adds rising rates and rising term premium has brought down the PE for the stock market, and so as rates start coming down, this has created a big sigh of relief in the equity markets. urrien says bond yields are currently at 4.64% and that could be split into two parts, the risk neutral rate and the risk premium. The term premium has dramatically flipped since 2020. It was -1.45% three years ago and reached as low as -9%. A few months ago, it was as high as 0.5%. Jurrien also comments on the Magnificent Seven, alternatives in your portfolio and the transition away from the Great Moderation regime.

Recorded on November 6, 2023.

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