It's been a dramatic week in the Pakistani mountains. We saw summits on a couple of 8000ers, climbers in trouble, and tragically two deaths. The weather is currently keeping the K2 teams at base camp but look for a rush starting later this next week—all in all, a normal season thus far, despite the record number of climbers.

As I've mentioned multiple times, Pakistan has taken a page out of Nepal's tourism book and issued permits to anyone and everyone this season. Some reports say 1,400, others closer to 1,000, but there are at least twice the number of tourists in the Northern Terorities than ever before.

Among these drivers of these crowds is pent-up demand from COVID and aggressive marketing from five Nepali operators: 8K Expeditions, Elite Expeditions, Imaging Nepal, Pioneer Adventures, and Seven Summits Treks. Combined, these account for 253 people - clients and support of mostly Sherpas from Nepal. However, the western operators are also cashing in with Maddison Mountaineering and Furtenbach Adventures, accounting for 54 spots on the mountains.

Now, is this too many people spread across five 8000-meter peaks? The answer is it depends. Taking Everest as an example, these days, we see 300, 500, or even 700 people climbing from the Nepal side each spring season. This year, 2022 (click to read my analysis), I estimate 325 clients supported by 500 Sherpas were on the Nepal side and 640 summited Everest with no serious crowding issues. These are huge mountains that can accommodate lots of people - spread out.

The problem occurs when there are only a few suitable weather days to summit, i.e., winds under 30 mph. In 2019 (click to read my analysis,) we saw a nightmare situation with only three good days for 600 people; thus, long lines from the South Summit to the Summit resulted in 660 summits and nine deaths. Note that in my judgment, four of the eleven were 'crowd-related' deaths and an additional seven with 'low-cost' operators.

So just looking at K2 because it is the steepest of Pakastani's 8000ers with the smallest spots for tents at the traditional camps, will the estimated 250 to 350 climbers experience an Everest 2019 scenario, especially at the traditional crowded spots like House's Chimney, and the Bottleneck? Well, if K2 behaves like it traditionally has with short weather windows between strong wind and snow storms, yes. But, if teams can coordinate summit pushes and tent space, things might go smoother than expected. I've been told teams are communicating well and sharing tents thus far. If this turns out to be true, look for many leaders to jump in front of the summit parade and claim it as their own.

Climb On!

Alan

Memories are Everything