Key Wealth Matters

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the initial unemployment claims, PCE Inflation report, government debt, China, and the equities market.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
Connor Cloetingh, Senior Equity Analyst
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

01:38 – The initial unemployment claims for the week ending September 21 were reported at 218,000

02:50 – Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) slowed down from July with a reading of 0.5% to 0.2% in August. Additionally, the PCE Inflation month-over-month data came in at 0.1% in August

04:50 – Being the first inflation report since the September rate cut, the PCE Inflation data validated the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision, and opened the door for another 50-basis point cut heading toward the end of the year

10:53 – Comments on government debt and its impact on the bond market 

14:03 – As government debt has affected markets worldwide, we hear how China’s economic standing is influencing the equities market – particularly with material and commodity prices

Additional Resources

Key Questions: 25 or 50... Is That Really the Question? | Key Private Bank 

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the retail sales, the FOMC recap, and the equities market.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
Cindy Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Connor Cloetingh, Senior Equity Analyst

01:51 – The preliminary retail sales report for August showed a significant decline from 1.1% in July to 0.1% in August  

03:56 – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met Wednesday and moved forward with an unexpected interest rate cut of 50 basis points 

11:17 – Additional comments on the FOMC meeting and what can be expected for the remainder of the year; The Fed plans to shift its focus from inflation to the labor market; in addition, the market is expecting an additional 75 basis points to be cut by the end of the year, which differs slightly from the Fed’s estimate of 50 basis points

14:27 – Remarks on why the Fed chose to cut rates by 50 basis points instead of starting with a 25 basis point rate cut 

18:56 – Comments on the equity market and its performance since Wednesday’s FOMC meeting 

Additional Resources

Key Questions: 25 or 50... Is That Really the Question? | Key Private Bank 

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the CPI inflation data, the stock market, and next week’s FOMC meeting.

Speakers: 
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

 
01:54 – The Bureau of Labor and Statistics overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported inflation at 0.2% for month-over-month in August. Likewise, the CPI reported core inflation at 0.3% 

03:06 – The stock market has had a substantial week, and the S&P 500 has rebounded to be within 50 points of nearing an all-time-high  

05:31 – Comments on ‘Big Tech’ recovering this week in the market as we saw some pull back in prior weeks, leaving utilities to take the lead as the top performer

07:50 – As Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and initial unemployment claims data were released this week, this seems to be an ideal setup for the anticipated rate cut at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting

Additional Resources

Key Questions: When the Fed Cuts Rates, Should Investors Cut Their Exposure to Stocks | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the Purchasing Managers Index, the Fed’s Beige Book, the Employment Situation, rate cuts, and the energy market. 

Speakers: 
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

 
01:45 – The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data was released highlighting the manufacturing industry being in a contractionary environment, while the services industry has been in an expansionary environment for the past 48 months 

02:26 – The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book came out Wednesday, in advance of the upcoming FOMC meeting, specifying economic activity grew slightly in 3 of the 12 districts, while 9 of the 12 reported flat or declining activity

03:32 – The Employment Situation summarized data for two key elements: the unemployment rate for August came in at 4.2%, down 0.1% from July. In addition, total non-farm payroll employment increased by 142,000 from the previous month, yet it was still below expectations and included downward revisions for the prior two months of 86,000

04:32 – Comments on the Employment Situation report and its mixed results as payrolls and unemployment data differed from expectations

07:04 – Based on the Employment Situation data, it seems without a doubt a 25-50 basis point rate cut will happen at this month’s Fed meeting

11:06 – Remarks on the energy market and its role in the equities market 

16:52 - Final comments highlighting the recent Key Wealth National Call and where you can obtain the replay

Additional Resources

Key Questions: When the Fed Cuts Rates, Should Investors Cut Their Exposure to Stocks | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, PCE Inflation report, rate cuts, NVIDIA, and the upcoming Key Wealth National Call.

Speakers: 
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

 
01:58 – S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index hits all-time high in June 

03:15 – The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation data for July remained the same as June

04:37 – Comments on this week’s economic news and how we can conclude that inflation is cooling, and overall spending is gradually increasing

06:48 – Remarks on last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, with Federal Reserve Chair Powell, and the rate cut forecast before the end of the year

10:17 – NVIDIA makes headlines once again, beating revenue and earnings expectations; however, the bulls and bears had mixed reactions 

14:40 – Final comments highlighting the upcoming Key Wealth National Call Wednesday, September 4th at 1:00pm EST 

Additional Resources

Key Questions: When the Fed Cuts Rates, Should Investors Cut Their Exposure to Stocks | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the U.S. Leading Indicators, nonfarm payrolls, existing home sales, the Jackson Hole Symposium, the July FOMC meeting minutes, and the upcoming Key Wealth National Call.

Speakers: 
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
Cindy Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

02:19 - The US Leading Indicators released by The Conference Board showed the month of July was down and that was followed by a decline in June, as well

02:45 – The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the Nonfarm Payroll report for the prior year by roughly 818,000 less 

03:09 – Existing home sales grew 1.3% in July, halting the four-month sales decline which began in March

03:46 – The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, spoke at the Jackson Hole Symposium just hours ago

04:53 – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the meeting minutes from July’s meeting. The overall theme observed was wide support for a September rate cut as the inflation risk has diminished and the risks to the labor market have increased

06:38 – During Fed Chair Powell’s press conference this morning, he addressed changing the direction of monetary policy as inflation has eased, the job market is not overheated, and the global supply chain has normalized. However, for rate cuts, the Fed will depend on incoming data

08:33 – Fed Chair Powell seemed to have balanced and neutralized comments at his press conference this morning in regards to cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, but only if the data is encouraging 

15:07 - Based on previous economic strategy, it seems that the Fed typically cuts rate by 25 basis points before it loosens or tightens its policies to not incite panic in the market. Even so, is the Fed too late to the game? 

20:50 – Final comments highlighting the upcoming Key Wealth National Call Wednesday, September 4th at 1:00pm EST. 

Additional Resources

Key Questions: "You're Killin' Me Smalls!" Will Small Caps Ever Outperform Again | Key Private Bank 

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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Economic & Market Research
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the labor market, industrial production, retail sales, the Consumer Price Index, corporate earnings, and the upcoming Key Wealth National Call.

Speakers: 
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

 
01:31 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 10th declined to 227,000, down 7,000 from the week prior

02:00 – U.S. industrial production declined 0.6% for July, as a preliminary read

02:32 – Retail sales reported above expectations at an increase of 1.0% month-over-month for July

03:07 – The inflation print for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported at 2.9% year-over-year for July; excluding food and energy, the report came in at 3.2% 

07:17 – Based on the favorable CPI report, the market is anticipating the Fed may not have to begin cutting rates in an aggressive manner and could begin cutting rates only by 25 basis points as soon as September 

13:05 – While earnings haven’t had any recent record highs, expectations still continue to heighten; even though the economy is slowing, it is still growing

16:56 – Final comments highlighting the upcoming Key Wealth National Call Wednesday, September 4th at 1:00pm EST. 

Additional Resources

Key Questions: "You're Killin' Me Smalls!" Will Small Caps Ever Outperform Again | Key Private Bank 

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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Market Minutes Recap - Market Update (Perspectives on the Economic Calendar and Recent Market Volatility)

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on recent market volatility and its implications for investors. Our panel shares predictions on earnings season and insights on the fragility of the market and the outsized reactions to events in recent years.
 
Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:33 – Remarks on the economic calendar, Services PMI increase in July economic activity, and update on Initial Unemployment claims 

02:40 – Comments on Monday's market volatility, rebound through the rest of the week, and what it means for investors for the near-future
13:20 – Predictions for Q2 earnings season and what investors should know about the sensitivity in the markets 

17:43 – Recommendations of what investors should do about spikes in market volatility and what long-term investing principles apply

Additional Resources

Key Questions: "You're Killin' Me Smalls!" Will Small Caps Ever Outperform Again | Key Private Bank 

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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Economic & Market Research
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the JOLTS report, the Case-Shiller, the Employment Cost Index, the Employment Situation Summary, the recent FOMC meeting, and the VIX index. 

Speakers: 
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
Cindy Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:16 – The job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported the amount of job openings remained unchanged as 8.2 million for June

01:33 – The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller reported 5.9% annual of gains for May. This continues to support that home sale demand is high, however the inventory of homes is low

01:58 – The Employment Cost Index measured wages and salaries increased to 4.2% in June 

02:36 – The Employment Situation Summary showed unemployment increased to 4.3% for July 

03:35 – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met Wednesday and decided to leave rates unchanged at 5.25% – 5.5%. While the economic outlook is uncertain, Fed Chair Powell didn’t directly use language that hinted towards there may or may not be a rate cut in soon

06:48 – The Fed seems to have inflation close to their intended target of 2%, now it seems their focus will soon shift from inflation to prioritizing normalization within the labor market

09:25 – Comments on the Fed, and that the market anticipates two to three rates cuts by the end of the year due to the release of recent labor reports 

14:03 – Comments on the stock market and highlighting the VIX index spiking to 24.5% signaling the economy getting back to a more normal volatility market 

Additional Resources

Key Questions: "You're Killin' Me Smalls!" Will Small Caps Ever Outperform Again | Key Private Bank 

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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Economic & Market Research
Weekly Investment Brief
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into existing home sales, Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, the stock market, and next week’s FOMC meeting. 

Speakers: 
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:55 – Existing home sales declined 5.4% in June, confirming the hesitancy people have to acquire a new mortgage at higher rates

02:20 – The Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reported at 2.8% for the second quarter

03:37 – Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation declined from 2.6% in May to 2.5% in June, while the Core PCE remained constant at 2.6%

04:45 – Comments on the stock market and the pullback we have seen for the S&P 500

10:51 – Comments on small-caps and their unexpected performance  

12:16 – Remarks on the expectations for next week’s FOMC meeting and if there will be a September interest rate cut 

Additional Resources

Key Questions: Private Equity: What Else Do I Need to Know? | Key Private Bank 

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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