The month-long Iran conflict has rapidly expanded, drawing in actors across the Middle East and raising concerns about broader regional escalation. As a result, we're seeing impacts on energy markets around the world, including across the Indo-Pacific.

Roughly 80% of the oil and gas flowing through the Gulf is destined for Asia, and disruptions are already being felt in major importing economies like Japan and South Korea, which remain heavily dependent on Middle Eastern supplies.

But the consequences go beyond energy. The crisis is also adding a new layer of complexity to the U.S.-China relationship—reshaping how Beijing thinks about risk, security, and its role in an increasingly unstable global system.

So how is China interpreting these developments? What do they mean for the Indo-Pacific—both in the near term and over a longer horizon? And how might China's approach to energy security, supply chains, and statecraft position it in a more volatile world?

Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Kurt Campbell about what the current instability in the Gulf could mean for the Indo-Pacific. They also discuss an essay Kurt co-authored with Rush Doshi in Foreign Affairs, arguing for reorienting US diplomacy with China.

Kurt is the chairman of The Asia Group, which he co-founded in 2013. During the Biden Administration, he was deputy secretary of the United States Department of State. Before assuming his role at the State Department, Kurt served as the inaugural Indo-Pacific coordinator at the National Security Council and deputy assistant to the President at the White House.

Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, Alice Manos, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.