Lagniappe

Lagniappe

By Stokes Family OfficeBusinessNewsTechnology
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Lagniappe episodes

  • Betting on the U.S. Economy

    This week, we start by discussing the biggest story in the news, the Titan Submersible tragedy. We’ll also look at the transformation of real estate and stock markets and examine the go-forward outlook of the U.S. economy vs. the World. 


    Key Takeaways

    • [00:22] - Recapping the Titan Submersible tragedy
    • [07:25] - The most expensive U.S. cities to buy a house in 1930 
    • [11:42] - The evolution of participation in the stock market 
    • [17:57] - Shifting from a historical to a current look at the markets
    • [24:24] - The U.S. economy vs the EU and the UK

    • Links

      • The booming business of trying to reach the ends of the Earth
      • More than 500 migrants presumed dead after shipwreck off Coast of Greece
      • A $49.99 videogame controller could have been running the Titanic submersible
      • 10 things you may not know about the Great Depression
      • The “More Doctors Smoke Camels” ad campaign
      • The number of stocks accounting for the S&P 500's gain by year
      • CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index continues its YoY decline
      • Months without a 52-week high in the market
      • Europe has fallen behind America and the gap is growing

      • Connect with our hosts

        • Doug Stokes
        • Greg Stokes
        • Stokes Family Office

        • Subscribe and stay in touch

          • Apple Podcasts
          • Spotify
          • Google Podcasts
          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

          • Disclosure

            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

            30 min
          • Jerome Powell, Elon Musk, and Indiana Jones

            We discuss the new CPI data, look back at what the experts predicted, and hopefully put the Fed conversation to rest. We’ll also talk about the potential fading of oil demand and ESG importance, and close with our favorite Indiana Jones movies. 


            Key Takeaways

            • [01:00] - Summarizing inflation data and the Fed’s reaction
            • [05:15] - Did experts see this coming?
            • [14:42] - Are we about to see oil demand begin to tamper?
            • [20:49] - Tesla, Bud Light, and the importance of ESG scores/public opinion
            • [25:09] - Our favorite Indiana Jones editions before the release of the new movie

            • Links

              • Fed pauses rate hikes after 15 consecutive months of increases
              • Price changes over the last year (CPI report)
              • Truflation is at 2.34%
              • Charlie Bilello: Did the experts see this coming? No.
              • Robert Kiyosaki (2/12): Giant crash coming
              • Bloomberg: Global oil demand growth will taper off over the next few years
              • Buffett is buying more Occidental Petroleum stock as oil prices near 2023 lows
              • Patrick Bet-David: Phillip Morris received a higher ESG score than Tesla
              • ESG becoming much less of a talking point on earnings calls
              • Ramp Capital: The king of beer has been dethroned

              • Connect with our hosts

                • Doug Stokes
                • Greg Stokes
                • Stokes Family Office

                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                  • Apple Podcasts
                  • Spotify
                  • Google Podcasts
                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                  • Disclosure

                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                    28 min
                  • Are Messi and Taylor Swift Recession Indicators?

                    This week, we discuss the two biggest stories in not only the sports world but the world at large. We also dive into how people are living and spending their money and what that could mean for a recession as well as give updates on the bond and oil markets and ChatGPT vs the S&P 500. 


                    Key Takeaways

                    • [00:58] - Messi’s unprecedented move to the MLS
                    • [06:10] - The shocking LIV/PGA merger
                    • [09:27] - What does it mean that we’re not seeing significant recessionary indicators?
                    • [22:43] - Update on the oil markets
                    • [24:04] - The importance of who you listen to for financial advice

                    • Links

                      • Messi sold more PSG jerseys last year ($130m) than total revenue for the top-earning MLS team, LAFC ($116m)
                      • Messi turns down $400M per year contract from Saudis
                      • Messi's deal includes profit sharing from Apple and Adidas
                      • Players shocked and angry after LIV/PGA merger
                      • Tiger Woods Was Offered LIV Golf Contract in $700M-$800M Range
                      • Nick Timiraos: Goldman Sachs cuts recession probability down to 25%
                      • Scott Grannis: The information we have to date strongly suggests that the Fed is done—no more hikes
                      • CNN Fear and Greed Index: Extreme Greed
                      • Jeffrey Kleintop: Bull markets don't wait for recessions to be over
                      • Charlie Bilello: US Bond Market in drawdown for 34 months, by far the longest in history
                      • WSJ: This Rally Is All About a Few Star Stocks

                      • Connect with our hosts

                        • Doug Stokes
                        • Greg Stokes
                        • Stokes Family Office

                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                          • Apple Podcasts
                          • Spotify
                          • Google Podcasts
                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                          • Disclosure

                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                            28 min
                          • Is AI the Bubble Du Jour?

                            Stokes’ Managing Partners start by revisiting a point from last week’s episode on down and sideways markets and whether they’re bullish or bearish on a go-forward basis. They’ll also join the discourse on the debt ceiling bill, look at the beginnings of what could be the era of AI, and continue the weekly Fed conversation.


                            Key Takeaways

                            • [00:28] - Looking at our down and sideways market
                            • [03:48] - What happened with the debt ceiling deal?
                            • [10:20] - Are we entering the AI bubble era?
                            • [21:39] - Our weekly Fed update

                            • Links

                              • Nick Maggiulli: Why Down & Sideways Markets are Bullish
                              • Cullen Roche: CBO estimates debt ceiling deal will reduce the deficit by 0.2% of GDP
                              • Market Sentiment: NVDA is trading at 37x its revenue (P/S) and 202x its earnings (P/E)
                              • Charlie Bilello: Top May stock returns
                              • Charlie Bilello: A look back at extremes price-to-sale ratios in 2020
                              • Mark Zandi: Over 50% experiencing B2B sales declines
                              • Bloomberg: Fed Signal for Rate Pause Takes Pressure Off Hot Jobs Report
                              • Lawrence McDonald: Processing the duration/interest rate risk situation
                              •  

                                Connect with our hosts

                                • Doug Stokes
                                • Greg Stokes
                                • Stokes Family Office

                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                  • Spotify
                                  • Google Podcasts
                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                  • Disclosure

                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                    30 min
                                  • Cheerio! Updates on the Market and a Trip to London

                                    Before we head into the holiday weekend, Greg and Doug Stokes discuss why and how so much has happened over the last two years with very little market movement. They also talk about the possibility of a bull market quietly brewing during this time of consolidation and finish with a recap of Greg’s trip across the pond. 


                                    Key Takeaways

                                    • [01:25] - A 10,000-foot view of the market today
                                    • [07:09] - Truflation vs. what the government says about inflation 
                                    • [08:46] - Is a new bull market quietly underway?
                                    • [16:43] - Greg’s economic observations of a trip to London

                                    • Links

                                      • Michael Green: USA Truflation down below 3%
                                      • Axios: Cheaper eggs are on the way
                                      • Jurrien Timmer: How to think like a bull
                                      • This forgotten Apple Co-Founder left an estimated $75 Billion on the table

                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                        • Doug Stokes
                                        • Greg Stokes
                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                          • Spotify
                                          • Google Podcasts
                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                          • Disclosure

                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                            28 min
                                          • Advocating for Common Sense

                                            Doug and Greg start this week by noting a pod prediction that came true in regard to the latest CPI/inflation numbers. They also look at current and past S&P 500 top 10 holdings to answer a hypothetical investment question on diversification vs. the big tech stalwarts. Finally, they prepare for the ramifications of the debt ceiling debate, check in on Russia/Ukraine, and look back at the results of the student debt moratorium.


                                            Key Takeaways

                                            • [01:04] - Our weekly inflation check-in
                                            • [05:10] - Tech’s current hold on the S&P 500 top 10 holdings
                                            • [13:34] - Apple vs the World
                                            • [18:54] - Explaining the Debt Ceiling debate
                                            • [24:01] - An update on the Russia/Ukraine conflict
                                            • [27:39] - What we now know about the 2020 student debt moratorium 

                                            • Links

                                              • BI: Inflation continued to cool in April
                                              • Truflation
                                              • Conor Sen: Owners’ equivalent rent — the turn-down has begun
                                              • Luis Gonzali: Top 10 S&P 500 Holdings since 1980
                                              • Brian Beal: Apple’s market cap is as large as every UK business combined
                                              • Brookings: How worried should we be if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted?
                                              • Russia had only one tank in their Victory Day parade
                                              • Univ. of Chicago - Debt Moratoria: Evidence from Student Loan Forbearance

                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                • Stokes Family Office

                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                  • Spotify
                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                  • Disclosure

                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                    30 min
                                                  • Taking (Another) Rate Hike

                                                    The Stokes Brothers are back this week to discuss their favorite topic, the Federal Reserve. They question the Fed’s decision to raise rates again, look at the latest bank failure, and examine how these occurrences may slow down the economy. 


                                                    Key Takeaways

                                                    • [00:17] - A busy week with a rate hike and more bank failures
                                                    • [08:54] - The effect of large bank failures on regional banks
                                                    • [13:34] - The danger of being all in on a certain strategy or sector
                                                    • [19:04] - The latest snippets from S&P 500 earnings calls/reports
                                                    • [22:48] - Historical market returns when earnings are up and down YOY

                                                    • Links

                                                      • Fed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential end to hikes
                                                      • Truflation
                                                      • Sven Henrich: 99.2% odds of rate cuts before the end of the year
                                                      • Pranksters posing as Ukraine's president tricked the Fed chair into a phone call
                                                      • Jim Cramer’s April 19th Western Alliance take
                                                      • Federal government seizes First Republic Bank and sells to JPMorgan Chase
                                                      • Ben Carlson: Regional Banking ETF returns vs S&P 500
                                                      • The top move-out U.S. Metros and their top destinations
                                                      • McDonald’s says people are cutting out ordering fries
                                                      • 'Labor Shortages' mentions outpace 'Job Cuts' during S&P 500 company earnings calls
                                                      • Carlson: Over the last 90+ years the stock market has been more likely to see positive returns, double-digit returns, and up years of 20% or more when earnings are down from one year to the next.

                                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                                        • Doug Stokes
                                                        • Greg Stokes
                                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                                          • Spotify
                                                          • Google Podcasts
                                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                          • Disclosure

                                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                            28 min
                                                          • Sports Cards and Memorabilia with Author Steve Lane

                                                            This week, the guys are joined by a very special guest. Steve Lane is the author of Mickey Mantle: A Life In Memorabilia which chronicles the life and career of Mickey Mantle through the items in Steve’s extensive collection. They discuss his incredible Mantle items and how sports cards and memorabilia have now become a legitimate investment vehicle in what Steve calls the art of the 21st century.


                                                            Key Takeaways

                                                            • [03:07] - How Steve got into collecting baseball cards
                                                            • [04:35] - Why Mickey Mantle is such an important American figure
                                                            • [10:54] - Steve’s most prized Mantle items
                                                            • [15:30] - When/why did the memorabilia market take off?
                                                            • [21:59] - Nostalgia vs. investment
                                                            • [30:01] - Steve’s appeared on the “Talking Sopranos” podcast

                                                            • Links

                                                              • Steve Lane
                                                              • Mickey Mantle: A Life in Memorabilia
                                                              • Aaron Judge with Mickey Mantle’s glove 
                                                              • National Sports Collectors Convention
                                                              • ‘Talking Sopranos’ Superfan Episode

                                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                                • Stokes Family Office

                                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                                  • Spotify
                                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                                  • Disclosure

                                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                    36 min
                                                                  • The Glass-Half-Full View of What Could Be the Next Recession

                                                                    After a Spring Break vacation, the guys are back in the studio to catch you up on all the financial happenings around the globe. They discuss how remote work and office space vacancies are affecting the commercial real estate market, how the residential market fluctuates wildly from coast to coast, and why we should be optimistic despite continuing recession rumblings. 

                                                                    30 min
                                                                  • 60% of the Time, It Works Every Time

                                                                    The Stokes Brothers pick apart negative headlines we are seeing despite coming out of a positive first quarter. They also discuss the resurgence of Bitcoin, the emergence of AI, the effects of an aging population, and of course…the Federal Reserve.


                                                                    Key Takeaways

                                                                    • [06:18] - Is there any merit to the US dollar losing its status as a reserve currency?
                                                                    • [09:57] - Why is Bitcoin back up?
                                                                    • [12:09] - The speculative mania behind new tech like AI
                                                                    • [16:01] - What happens when the Fed stops its rate hiking cycle?
                                                                    • [22:00] - US vs International performance; a shift from growth to value
                                                                    • [27:05] - The financial impact of an aging population


                                                                    • Links

                                                                      • Ryan Detrick - S&P 500 gains after a >7% Gain Q1 Historically
                                                                      • Cullen Roche - Is the US dollar losing reserve status?
                                                                      • Jurrien Timmer - The final Fed tightening cycle historically
                                                                      • WP: How Silicon Valley Bank’s executives tweaked their risk model
                                                                      • JP Morgan: USA vs EAFE relative performance
                                                                      • Lawrence Hamtil
                                                                      • Charlie Bilello: the % of Americans 65 and older


                                                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                                                        • Doug Stokes
                                                                        • Greg Stokes
                                                                        • Stokes Family Office


                                                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                                                          • Spotify
                                                                          • Google Podcasts
                                                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


                                                                          • Disclosure

                                                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                            33 min

                                                                          About Lagniappe

                                                                          From the publisher's feed

                                                                          Lagniappe is a weekly podcast from Stokes Family Office. Join Doug and Greg each week for an entertaining look at current news, personal finance, brotherly banter, and whatever else is on our minds!

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