Lagniappe

Lagniappe

By Stokes Family OfficeBusinessNewsTechnology
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Lagniappe episodes

  • The Market is a Great Teaching Tool

    After another positive week in the markets, we’ll go through our weekly inflation check-in, re-examining our own opinions over the past year and looking ahead to what the Fed can/will do next. We’ll then take note of the big bank forecasts that are rolling in and how they compare to last year’s and discuss why in times of elevation in volatility, bearish opinions come out of the woodwork.


    Key Takeaways

    • [00:17] - Checking in on inflation numbers
    • [04:27] - The attractiveness of bonds
    • [08:08] - Why we see bearish opinions pop up in times like these
    • [12:44] - Looking at big banks’ previous and 2024 forecasts
    • [17:38] - The relationship between inflation/deflation and day-to-day economics


    • Links

      • Vanguard: Historical returns on fixed income and equities
      • S&P 500 is now up almost 8% since Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson said there would be no year-end rally on October 30
      • Famed Big Short Investor Michael Burry closed his short position in the S&P 500
      • Goldman Sachs: The US economy is on its final descent to a soft landing
      • Ben Carlson: Remember in 2022 when everyone was betting on $200 oil? It's currently below $80


      • Connect with our hosts

        • Doug Stokes
        • Greg Stokes
        • Stokes Family Office


        • Subscribe and stay in touch

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          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


          • Disclosure

            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

            23 min
          • The Earnings Cycle Continues to Improve

            After a volatile, but positive past week, we’ll discuss comments from Jerome Powell and how the Fed continues to drive the markets while earnings continue to grow. We’ll also reexamine fearmongering prognostications and provide context around the headlines on surging debt.


            Key Takeaways

            • [00:17] - How the Fed continues to be the market driver 
            • [06:15] - Why some of the most interest rate-sensitive sectors have done the best this year
            • [10:05] - Earnings per share for the S&P 500
            • [13:23] - Prospective returns for a diversified, 60/40 portfolio
            • [17:01] - How much should you read into headlines on surging debt?
            • [21:11] - Looking back at oil price and market crash prognostications 
            • [24:51] - News roundup featuring Belichick, Biden, Bankman-Fried, and Bridgewater


            • Links

              • Treasury’s $24 billion 30-year bond auction goes poorly
              • 82% of S&P 500 beat Q3 estimates by an average of 7.61%
              • Buffett says rising interest rates are gravity to asset prices
              • A short history of the 60/40 portfolio
              • U.S. credit card debt reaches $1.08 trillion
              • The crash callers won’t save you


              • Connect with our hosts

                • Doug Stokes
                • Greg Stokes
                • Stokes Family Office

                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                  • Apple Podcasts
                  • Spotify
                  • Google Podcasts
                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                  • Disclosure

                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                    29 min
                  • Halloween, Hedge Funds, and a Hopeful Look at the Future

                    Happy All Saints’ Day from the home of the Saints. After recapping Halloween from Uptown New Orleans, we’ll jump into a discussion on the secrecy of some of the largest hedge funds. We’ll then look at the intertwined relationship and valuation of stocks and bonds, the trajectory of the U.S. markets, and our weekly inflation update. 


                    Key Takeaways

                    • [01:20] - Looking behind the curtain at hedge funds like Bridgewater
                    • [07:35] - The relationship and relative valuation of stocks & bonds in today's market 
                    • [15:04] - The long-term trajectory of the U.S. economy
                    • [22:22] - Inflation update 

                    • Links

                      • How does the world’s largest hedge fund really make its money?
                      • Hedge fund two sigma is hit by trading scandal
                      • How inflation altered the stock - bond relationship
                      • How often do we see intra-year declines like this?
                      • US stock market is almost 5x larger than the next biggest market
                      • Inflation-adjusted excess household liquidity
                      • September PCE inflation by the numbers

                      • Connect with our hosts

                        • Doug Stokes
                        • Greg Stokes
                        • Stokes Family Office

                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                          • Apple Podcasts
                          • Spotify
                          • Google Podcasts
                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                          • Disclosure

                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                            27 min
                          • Why Haven’t We Gone Into a Recession?

                            We start today with the narrative that Google’s earnings are the impetus for the markets selling off. Then with a historical perspective, we’ll share what we’re telling our clients during this choppy, ping pong market. We’ll finish with our thoughts on why we actually haven’t slipped into recession and how the U.S. missed a major refinancing opportunity.


                            Key Takeaways

                            • [00:17] - Are Google’s earnings really why the market is down?
                            • [04:08] - What we’re telling clients about the stock market 
                            • [09:27] - Difference between today & a bear market or bull market correction in the past
                            • [15:50] - Why haven’t we gone into a recession?
                            • [19:27] - The huge missed opportunity of the US not refinancing debt

                            • Links

                              • Happy 1 year anniversary to a 100% chance of recession forecast that never happened
                              • CNN Fear and Greed Index
                              • Sam Ro: 11 stock market charts that offer much-needed context
                              • Michael Santoli on the Morningstar’s The Long View Podcast
                              • The Billion Dollar Molecule
                              • The greatest missed opportunity of our lifetimes
                              • US interest costs outpacing investments

                              • Connect with our hosts

                                • Doug Stokes
                                • Greg Stokes
                                • Stokes Family Office

                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                  • Spotify
                                  • Google Podcasts
                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                  • Disclosure

                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                    25 min
                                  • Tales from the Dome + 1987 Black Monday + Bond and Real Estate Markets

                                    We open with Saints sadness after a night in the Dome. Then on the anniversary of 1987’s Black Monday, we’ll look back at that historic day and how it compares to today’s choppy market. We’ll then take a deep dive into the bond and real estate markets before examining a narrative shift where good news is actually good news again.


                                    Key Takeaways

                                    • [00:17] - The Saints are no longer fun
                                    • [03:45] - Looking back at the crash of 1987
                                    • [07:11] - How today’s choppy market compares to that historic downturn
                                    • [09:53] - The asymmetric bond risk to the positive we’re seeing right now
                                    • [13:15] - Predictions on the Fed raising rates
                                    • [14:48] - Mortgage rates hit 8%
                                    • [21:58] - Is good news good again and bad news bad?

                                    • Links

                                      • 36 years ago today was the worst day in the history of the Dow
                                      • The choppiness of the market in just the last week
                                      • Dreams of big bond gains backfire with $10 Billion ETF loss
                                      • The Fed Whisperer on a notable shift from Powell
                                      • Odd Lots: This is what an 8% mortgage means for the housing market
                                      • Active housing inventory levels are increasing but still below pre-pandemic
                                      • Total US Real Estate Price Index (YoY%)
                                      • Job openings/creation, low layoffs, low jobless claims, high bank balances, rising net worth, capex spending = bullish?
                                      • Who consumes the most calories globally?

                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                        • Doug Stokes
                                        • Greg Stokes
                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                          • Spotify
                                          • Google Podcasts
                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                          • Disclosure

                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                            28 min
                                          • New CPI Numbers and the Importance of Investment Timing

                                            With the new CPI report in hand, we’ll take a look at inflation and how it continues to affect purchasing power and the markets across the board. We’ll also examine why when you start investing can be as vital as anything else. Then, we’ll finish with our weekly Taylor Swift conversation, rave about our own personal experience with Patrick Mahomes, and marvel at the human achievement of a new marathon record.


                                            Key Takeaways

                                            • [00:16] - Looking at the latest CPI numbers
                                            • [08:41] - Real estate and bond markets
                                            • [10:15] - Treasury bond bear markets
                                            • [11:45] - The importance of timing in investing
                                            • [19:05] - Stock market update
                                            • [24:13] - Ozempic and a cautionary tale against headlines
                                            • [26:45] - T-Swift, Patrick Mahomes, and a new marathon record

                                            • Links

                                              • September inflation report
                                              • Truflation’s new aggregated inflation metric
                                              • Disneyland is increasing its prices again
                                              • We're in the biggest Treasury Bond Bear Market ever, Bank of America says
                                              • Maggiulli: When you start investing can be more important than anything else
                                              • The S&P 500 has a higher daily return when the McRib is available
                                              • Parets: Welcome to the year-end rally
                                              • Ozempic shows promise treating kidney failure in blow to dialysis firms
                                              • TCU beats Patrick Mahomes and Texas Tech on last minute tipped catch
                                              • 23-year-old runner sets mindboggling world record at Chicago Marathon

                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                • Stokes Family Office

                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                  • Spotify
                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                  • Disclosure

                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                    32 min
                                                  • Tracking Movement in the Bond, Interest Rate, & Housing Markets

                                                    We kick off this week looking at the bond yield and the risk/reward that the bond/fixed income market presents. We’ll also look at how interest rates/inflation are affecting housing, stocks, the odds of a recession, and general consumer spending. 


                                                    Key Takeaways

                                                    • [00:16] - Looking at the Bond yield
                                                    • [07:38] - The risk/reward of bonds now and in the future
                                                    • [11:45] - An update on mortgage rates and the housing market
                                                    • [15:50] - How is the stock market reacting?
                                                    • [19:21] - Real estate index fund performance

                                                    • Links

                                                      • The recent surge in the yield on the 10-year US Government bonds. 
                                                      • US Treasuries, who is holding the bag?
                                                      • Ultra-long-duration Treasury bonds have lost more in % than stocks during the Great Financial Crisis
                                                      • Timmer: the higher rates go, the more compelling the risk-reward becomes for bonds
                                                      • Have bonds finally reached escape velocity?
                                                      • Bond buyers battered as Austria's 100-year note shows the danger of duration risk
                                                      • Goldman Sachs expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.8% in 2024
                                                      • How the U.S. stock market typically declines historically
                                                      • Truflation
                                                      • VNQ, the ETF Vanguard real estate index fund
                                                      • Fear and Greed Index


                                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                                        • Doug Stokes
                                                        • Greg Stokes
                                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                                          • Spotify
                                                          • Google Podcasts
                                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                          • Disclosure

                                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                            29 min
                                                          • Looking Under the Hood of the Market

                                                            We’ll check out a choppy market and how it reacted to last week’s Fed announcement that rates will be higher for longer and another rate hike is on the way. We’ll also look at why we may be entering a time to buy fixed income, how opinion sentiments of inflation have an impact, and give updates on the oil and crypto markets.


                                                            Key Takeaways

                                                            • [00:18] - Reviewing the last week’s choppy market
                                                            • [04:20] - Bond markets and opportunities to buy fixed income
                                                            • [08:38] - The seasonality of the market
                                                            • [14:25] - Oil markets and deflation
                                                            • [20:03] - What happened to cryptocurrency?

                                                            • Links

                                                              • CNN Fear & Greed Index
                                                              • The price of a May 2050 UST bond is now below 50
                                                              • Down big in August and September isn’t always a bad thing
                                                              • Pre-Election Years = 80% Hit Rate after down Mid-terms
                                                              • Oil at $100 is too high, even for energy companies
                                                              • JPMorgan's UK bank Chase to ban crypto transactions
                                                              • Roche: Menendez could have been earning $26K+ per year risk-free with T-Bills
                                                              • How chemotherapy was derived

                                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                                • Stokes Family Office

                                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                                  • Spotify
                                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                                  • Disclosure

                                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                    27 min
                                                                  • Interest Rates, Venture Capital, and 10-Year Treasuries

                                                                    We start this week with our thoughts on the Fed estimating rates will be higher for longer. We’ll then dive into the craziness of the venture capital industry over the last few years and how interest rates are playing a role. We finish with a historical perspective on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and bullish takes on Taylor Swift and our New Orleans Saints.


                                                                    Key Takeaways

                                                                    • [00:18] - Checking in with Jerome Powell and the Fed 
                                                                    • [04:41] - Instacart IPO & the competition within the venture capital industry
                                                                    • [14:03] - How interest rates are affecting real estate and venture capital
                                                                    • [15:58] - Ten-Year Treasuries
                                                                    • [22:40] - LA tent city, T-Swift economics, and excitement for the Saints 

                                                                    • Links

                                                                      • Current projections for Fed Funds Rate
                                                                      • Investments in Instacart made after ‘15 underperforming S&P 500 significantly
                                                                      • Home price index with an 18-month lag versus CPI
                                                                      • Demand for vacation homes at 7 year low
                                                                      • Total returns on an annual basis of the 10-year US Treasury bond
                                                                      • Timmer: A compelling risk-reward picture for owning bonds
                                                                      • Meb Faber: The Ivy Portfolio
                                                                      • California tent city to cost $44k per tent
                                                                      • Taylor Swift helps Chicago book most hotel rooms on record


                                                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                                                        • Doug Stokes
                                                                        • Greg Stokes
                                                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                                                          • Spotify
                                                                          • Google Podcasts
                                                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                                          • Disclosure

                                                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                            29 min
                                                                          • What We Learned During CPI Week

                                                                            Join us as we examine sticky core CPI numbers and how shelter factors in. We’ll also look at why deflation may be our biggest economic risk right now. We’ll finish with tales of a Somali pirate stock exchange and how an idea from the movie Trading Places is playing out in real life. 


                                                                            Key Takeaways

                                                                            • [00:25] - Housing’s effect on inflation and CPI 
                                                                            • [04:41] - Disinflationary risks
                                                                            • [08:19] - Why the S&P 500 has been stuck in a rut
                                                                            • [15:44] - The Somali pirate stock exchange
                                                                            • [18:00] - Orange juice futures are at all-time highs!

                                                                            • Links

                                                                              • Cullen Roche: Where is inflation heading now?
                                                                              • Zillow home price data for America's 40 largest metropolitan housing markets
                                                                              • Goldman Sachs: 3 developments that will slow US growth to a crawl in Q4 2023
                                                                              • The S&P 500’s prolonged period of limbo
                                                                              • BoA scraps bullish stance on 10-year treasuries
                                                                              • TikTok Investors: the Somali Pirate Exchange Method
                                                                              • Orange juice futures prices

                                                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                                                • Stokes Family Office

                                                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                                                  • Spotify
                                                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                                                  • Disclosure

                                                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                                    21 min

                                                                                  About Lagniappe

                                                                                  From the publisher's feed

                                                                                  Lagniappe is a weekly podcast from Stokes Family Office. Join Doug and Greg each week for an entertaining look at current news, personal finance, brotherly banter, and whatever else is on our minds!

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