Lagniappe

Lagniappe

By Stokes Family OfficeBusinessNewsTechnology
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Lagniappe episodes

  • Episode Number 100!

    Thanks for joining us each week for 100 episodes of the Lagniappe Podcast. We’ll continue our conversation from last week about small and large caps and what it means to have such a large gap between them. We’ll then look back on a great January and how it falls in line historically, check in on bond market predictions, and track the normalization of the economy after rapid growth and rate hikes. And like every other podcast, we’ll discuss Taylor Swift in the run-up to the Super Bowl. 


    Key Takeaways

    • [00:18] - Historical data on times when small and large caps had such wide dispersions
    • [05:48] - How a fantastic start to 2024 stacks up with historical Januarys
    • [08:28] - A friendly back-and-forth on Doug’s bond market prediction from last year
    • [13:52] - Layoffs are here as the economy slows
    • [17:46] - Emerging housing markets index
    • [22:45] - The economics of the Super Bowl and Taylor Swift 

    • Links

      • Europe regulates its way to last place
      • Europe has never been this cheap versus the US
      • Bilello: Will small-caps have their day in the Sun?
      • Brevan Howard's top economist sees 3 huge macro turning points under way
      • Winter emerging housing markets index
      • The true story behind Masters of the Air

      • Connect with our hosts

        • Doug Stokes
        • Greg Stokes
        • Stokes Family Office

        • Subscribe and stay in touch

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          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

          • Disclosure

            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

            29 min
          • Has the Bull Market Arrived?

            Coming off the heels of hitting a new high for the S&P 500, we’ll talk about how, why, and what it means that we are in a bull market. We’ll then examine the latest on earnings, inflation, and the effect of a massive cash surplus. With some football talk mixed in, we finish by taking a broader perspective to look back on lessons we learned in a post-COVID cycle. 


            Key Takeaways

            • [00:18] - China stumbles while the US market surges
            • [03:45] - We’re calling it: we’re in a bull market
            • [09:29] - Prices/costs, inflation, and the earnings outlook
            • [15:17] - Could the surplus of cash drive the markets even higher?
            • [18:32] - Truflation reaches the Fed’s goal of being under 2%
            • [22:03] - Reflections on a post-COVID market cycle

            • Links

              • Ro: the long game remains undefeated
              • Jason Kelce helps girl get a message to Taylor Swift during the Chiefs-Bills game
              • The equal-weight S&P 500's forward PE is 18, the lowest valuation for the index on an S&P 500 record high day since January 2020
              • Timmer: Rising tides lift most boats
              • WSJ: Wall Street hopes trillions in money-market funds will flow into stocks and bonds
              • Truflation: CPI Drops Below 2%: Fed Inflation Target Reached
              • Bilello: What does sitting in cash cost you?


                Connect with our hosts

                • Doug Stokes
                • Greg Stokes
                • Stokes Family Office

                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                  • Apple Podcasts
                  • Spotify
                  • Google Podcasts
                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                  • Disclosure

                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                    30 min
                  • Are We in a Time of Vibespansion?

                    2024’s markets have gotten off to a choppy start, but that hasn’t stopped economists from calling this a period of vibespansion. We’ll look into the merits of that notion as well as how fixed debt is working to the advantage of home and small business owners. We’ll also take a look at the economic impact of China invading Taiwan and discuss the red flags of investing in countries with autocratic regimes.


                    Key Takeaways

                    • [00:17] - Vibespansion during a choppy start to the 2024 markets
                    • [04:25] - How fixed debt is aiding home/small business owners
                    • [08:48] - A frigid update on EVs
                    • [12:33] - The economic impact if China invaded Taiwan 
                    • [20:57] - The Fed is moving toward an easing bias
                    • [23:48] - Spirit & JetBlue merger blocked

                    • Links

                      • The $8.8 trillion cash pile that has stock-market bulls salivating
                      • Nationwide, 89% of homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 6%, down from a record high of 93% in mid-2022
                      • Ford cuts production of F-150 Lightning Electric Truck
                      • Oddlots: The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan
                      • Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF
                      • BlackRock Capital Market Assumptions
                      • Timmer: the Fed has gone from a tightening bias to an easing bias
                      • Dave Portnoy’s turbulent Spirit Airlines trading

                      • Connect with our hosts

                        • Doug Stokes
                        • Greg Stokes
                        • Stokes Family Office

                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                          • Apple Podcasts
                          • Spotify
                          • Google Podcasts
                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                          • 27 min
                          • What the Market Taught Investors in 2023

                            Heading into a big NFL weekend, we look at the wins and losses and what we learned from the market in 2023. We also chat about conflicting inflation data leading to renewed calls for recession. We then finish with a blitz of news including Boeing, Bill Gates, and Zuckerberg’s cows. 


                            Key Takeaways

                            • [00:17] - Why the disciplined investor is paid off in the long run
                            • [05:18] - Conflicting inflation/CPI data
                            • [09:15] - Renewed recession narratives from prognosticators
                            • [13:47] - Boeing insider trading
                            • [17:24] - Bill Gates and diversification
                            • [18:35] - Mark Zuckerberg’s cows drink beer
                            • [22:51] - Do insurance rates affect inflation?

                            • Links

                              • 12 lessons the market taught investors in 2023
                              • Annualized volatility & returns since 1928
                              • Hertz dumps EVs, including Teslas, for gas cars
                              • Mark Zuckerberg's cattle get beer and macadamia nuts
                              • Ro: If you're trying to become a trillionaire, you've come to the wrong place
                              • Dolphins at Chiefs could be the coldest game in history for both franchises
                              • Remarkable surge in auto insurance costs fans US inflation

                              • Connect with our hosts

                                • Doug Stokes
                                • Greg Stokes
                                • Stokes Family Office

                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                  • Spotify
                                  • Google Podcasts
                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                  • Disclosure

                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                    29 min
                                  • Betting on Humanity and a Diversified Portfolio

                                    Happy New Year from Stokes Family Office. We kick off the new year by looking at what historically happens after a good market year and pose the question, are we better off simply expecting positive performance? We’ll then dive into incredibly interesting demographic data, look at the correlation of stocks and bonds, and examine the Ozempic effect on the markets.


                                    Key Takeaways


                                    • [01:03] - Historical results after a good year in the markets
                                    • [03:53] - Betting on humanity and a diversified portfolio
                                    • [08:24] - The effects of global demographic trends
                                    • [15:53] - Bond market update
                                    • [21:03] - Predictions on stocks/bonds and International vs. the U.S.
                                    • [26:48] - The Ozempic effect

                                    • Links

                                      • What Comes After a Good Year in the Stock Market?
                                      • The single most important chart to understand the stock market.
                                      • Bullish on the US in with the current global demographic backdrop
                                      • Bonds and stocks have each moved in the same direction in 19 of the last 24 months
                                      • JP Morgan’s Guide to the Markets

                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                        • Doug Stokes
                                        • Greg Stokes
                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                          • Spotify
                                          • Google Podcasts
                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                          • Disclosure

                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                            35 min
                                          • Recapping 2023 and Looking Ahead to 2024

                                            As we head into Christmas, we’ll discuss whether or not we’ve already seen our Santa Claus rally. We’ll then dive into core CPE numbers and take our weekly look at inflation. Finally, we’ll review the biggest narratives of 2023 before looking ahead to what we hope will be a big 2024 as we explain our pragmatic stance on being long-term bullish.


                                            Key Takeaways

                                            • [02:05] - Have we already had our Santa Claus Rally?
                                            • [06:50] - Checking in on core CPE and inflation 
                                            • [10:01] - Looking ahead to 24 
                                            • [13:31] - What was the broad-market narrative of 2023?
                                            • [17:21] - The bright side of thinking from a contrarian perspective

                                            • Links

                                              • Six-month core PCE is at 1.87 percent, under the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target
                                              • Consumer sentiment up, inflation expectations down
                                              • Jurrien Timmer’s outlook for 2024
                                              • REIT Index performance

                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                • Stokes Family Office

                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                  • Spotify
                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                  • Disclosure

                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                    23 min
                                                  • Is The Market Declaring Victory Too Soon?

                                                    There’s a narrative brewing that the market has beaten inflation/a recession, but we’ll look into why the game is not over yet. We’ll also examine the coiled spring of small and mid-caps, how this bear market stacks up historically, and the wild ride we’ve been on over the past 6 weeks.


                                                    Key Takeaways

                                                    • [00:17] - Is the market declaring that the interest rate hiking cycle is over?
                                                    • [04:45] - The inflation/recession game is not over
                                                    • [09:25] - How does this bear market stack up historically 
                                                    • [13:31] - Looking back at an interesting past 6 weeks & the psychology of investing
                                                    • [18:54] - Lessons in looking at market themes and individual stock selection

                                                    • Links

                                                      • CPI less shelter is now at 1.4%
                                                      • Antonelli: 2022 was really just an average bear market
                                                      • We are only 30 points away from Goldman’s year-end target for year-end 2024
                                                      • 2003 vs 2023 valuations for Nvidia and Intel

                                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                                        • Doug Stokes
                                                        • Greg Stokes
                                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                                          • Spotify
                                                          • Google Podcasts
                                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                          • Disclosure

                                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                            24 min
                                                          • 2023 Was an Earnings Story

                                                            Amidst a cloud of public negativity, we’ll combat the perma-bull narratives and go through a list of things you don’t see in a recession. We’ll then discuss why we might need to consider skipping our typical “rules of thumb” during this COVID period. Finally, with the new jobs report in hand, we’ll talk about what happens if the economy doesn’t slow down, what’s on the horizon for multifamily, and why market history shows that patience will be rewarded.


                                                            Key Takeaways

                                                            • [00:17] - Things you don’t see in a recession
                                                            • [03:41] - When it comes to our normal “rules”, COVID is just a weird period
                                                            • [09:06] - The new jobs report just came out
                                                            • [10:58] - What happens/what does the Fed do if the economy doesn’t slow?
                                                            • [12:44] - Is multifamily the next real estate sector to feel pain?
                                                            • [16:00] - Looking back at the COVID era froth of stocks
                                                            • [18:22] - Why the market’s history should help you become/remain optimistic

                                                            • Links

                                                              • Things you don’t see in a recession
                                                              • What is the Sahm rule?
                                                              • November Jobs Report U.S. Job Growth Continues to Be Robust
                                                              • Odd Lots: Multifamily residential may also be in for trouble
                                                              • The most 2020/2021 bubble thread
                                                              • Since 1928 you've been more likely to finish the year w/a gain of 20% or more (34x) than a negative return (26x)

                                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                                • Stokes Family Office

                                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                                  • Spotify
                                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                                  • Disclosure

                                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                    27 min
                                                                  • What Does Record Travel & Shopping Mean For the Economy?

                                                                    We dive straight into the bond market as it comes off its best month in the last 40 years. We’ll then discuss how interest rates are affecting residential & commercial real estate markets differently, what the Fed’s next move can/should be, the life of Charlie Munger, and the crazy spending on Holiday travel and shopping.


                                                                    Key Takeaways

                                                                    • [00:13] - Patting ourselves on the back (momentarily) for our bond market takes
                                                                    • [03:41] - Differences in the residential & commercial real estate markets
                                                                    • [05:29] - Odds and prognostications for the Fed’s next move
                                                                    • [12:55] - The life and impact of Charlie Munger
                                                                    • [18:45] - What Thanksgiving & Black Friday mean for the economy
                                                                    • [25:08] - The S&P’s strong run continues + US vs International markets

                                                                    • Links

                                                                      • 70% chance that the Fed cuts rates at their May 2024 meeting
                                                                      • Core PCE since June is running at a 2.4% annualized rate.
                                                                      • Charlie Munger, Buffet’s right-hand man, dies at age 99
                                                                      • 11/26 was the busiest day ever at airports in the US
                                                                      • Black Friday Shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US
                                                                      • Zandi: The economy is meaningfully less interest rate sensitive than in times past
                                                                      • Goldman's Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over - Odd Lots
                                                                      • Meb Faber - the case for global investing

                                                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                                                        • Doug Stokes
                                                                        • Greg Stokes
                                                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                                                          • Spotify
                                                                          • Google Podcasts
                                                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                                          • Disclosure

                                                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                            30 min
                                                                          • What We’re Thankful For

                                                                            As we look forward to Thanksgiving, we start by saying what we’re grateful for including being American at this point in time of history. We’ll then juxtapose that with what’s going on in one of our favorite countries, Argentina as well as across Latin America and the world. We take note of the strength of the economy in the everyday things we see, give our weekly Fed/inflation update, and finish with our thoughts on Americans’ confidence in the future. 


                                                                            Key Takeaways

                                                                            • [01:10] - Election shocker in Argentina
                                                                            • [06:17] - Why business-friendly environments in Latin America are great for the US, world 
                                                                            • [12:14] - What F1 races, restaurant reser airport lines tell us about the economy
                                                                            • [16:05] - Our weekly Fed/Inflation update
                                                                            • [19:22] - Value propositions of the Magnificent 7
                                                                            • [26:32] - Why confidence for our children’s futures is at all-time lows


                                                                            • Links

                                                                              • Argentine libertarian Milei pledges new political era after election win
                                                                              • What China's shrinking population means for the global economy
                                                                              • An on-the-ground report from the Formula 1 race in Vegas
                                                                              • The economy is meaningfully less interest rate sensitive than in times past
                                                                              • The Bloomberg Aggregate Index inched about 0% YTD
                                                                              • Sam Altman joins Microsoft as OpenAI names its third CEO in 3 days
                                                                              • Only 19% feel confident their children’s lives will be better than theirs


                                                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                                                • Stokes Family Office


                                                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                                                  • Spotify
                                                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


                                                                                  • Disclosure

                                                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                                    31 min

                                                                                  About Lagniappe

                                                                                  From the publisher's feed

                                                                                  Lagniappe is a weekly podcast from Stokes Family Office. Join Doug and Greg each week for an entertaining look at current news, personal finance, brotherly banter, and whatever else is on our minds!

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