Lagniappe

Lagniappe

By Stokes Family OfficeBusinessNewsTechnology
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Lagniappe episodes

  • Looking Back at the (Almost) First Half of 2024

    This episode is all about where we are vs. where we thought we’d be as we near halftime of 2024. Are we surprised by no rate cuts? Could a bullish real estate environment be on the horizon? Why isn’t there more news/outcry over the bond markets? We’ll look back to answer these questions and look ahead to the buzz of big sporting events and elections coming soon. 


    Key Takeaways

    • [00:17] - Looking back at the first half of 2024
    • [07:04] - They will they/won’t they rate cut convo
    • [12:50] - The real estate sector needs rate cuts
    • [15:49] - Why hasn’t there been more outcry over bonds?
    • [19:24] - An update on private equity and venture capitalism
    • [24:40] - Summer heats up with sporting events and elections on the horizon
    • [29:00] - Projecting where we finish the year

    • View Transcript


      Links

      • Detrick: Could the Fed really cut with stocks at all-time highs? Yes is the answer.
      • Roche: It’s time to cut rates
      • CME FedWatch Tool
      • iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
      • Pensions piled into private equity. Now they can’t get out.
      • Election betting odds
      • Breaking spaghetti and record fast goals at the Euros

      • Connect with our hosts

        • Doug Stokes
        • Greg Stokes
        • Stokes Family Office

        • Subscribe and stay in touch

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          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
          • 34 min
          • Regional Banks, Stock Splits, and Apple AI

            As volatility makes a return to regional banking, we’ll look at what the markets are telling us about the probability of a soft landing. We then say goodbye to Siri and hello to Apple’s new AI features and discuss the ins and outs of NVIDIA’s stock split. 


            Key Takeaways

            • [00:18] - PIMCO says more regional bank failures on property are expected
            • [04:51] - Banking strategy and economic growth post-Financial Crisis
            • [12:37] - What is the market saying about the chances of a soft landing?
            • [17:34] - Apple introduces new AI features for iPhone
            • [19:32] - Is the NVIDIA stock split a bullish indicator?

            • View Transcript


              Links

              • PIMCO warns of more regional bank failures on property pain
              • BoA: Market-implied likelihood of a hard or soft landing
              • CNN Fear & Greed Index
              • iOS 18 AI features will change the game for iPhone users
              • Stocks usually do better after splits
              • Historically you get a better return over time by investing in the S&P at all-time highs compared to any other day

              • Connect with our hosts

                • Doug Stokes
                • Greg Stokes
                • Stokes Family Office

                • Subscribe and stay in touch

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                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                  • Disclosure

                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                    30 min
                  • Can Softening Data Lead to a Tailwind of Growth?

                    As economic data continues to show softness, we predict what that means for rate cuts potentially coming this summer. We’ll look at oil prices and discuss why whether you’re making business or vacation plans, the stability of prices is so important across the economy. Plus, airline travel and car sales are back!


                    Key Takeaways

                    • [00:18] - Is the economy telling us that rate cuts are coming? 
                    • [05:01] - The tailwinds from dropping oil prices 
                    • [11:26] - Do higher rates add to inflation?
                    • [17:50] - Travel is back!
                    • [22:58] - Cars are back, too?

                    • View Transcript


                      Links

                      • Rieder: Very positive data for the Fed’s mandate
                      • Berger: "The Great Stay" continued in April
                      • Grannis: Tight money hasn’t hurt corporate profits
                      • Grannis: Charts with a message
                      • Zaccardi: Corporate bankruptcies in the US are tapering off
                      • Roche: Higher rates do not add to inflation
                      • Memorial Day travel: flying like it’s going out of style
                      • Auto sales in May highest since April 2023.

                      • Connect with our hosts

                        • Doug Stokes
                        • Greg Stokes
                        • Stokes Family Office

                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                          • Apple Podcasts
                          • Spotify
                          • Google Podcasts
                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                          • Disclosure

                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                            28 min
                          • Is NVIDIA the Cisco of Today’s AI Age?

                            NVIDIA is officially the financial story of the year so far, and we’ll look at what it means for the economy as a whole and the future of AI. And with advancements in tech, we’ll examine how that affects data usage and why commodities, not technology, might be the discussion point for the next decade.


                            Key Takeaways

                            • [00:17] - NVIDIA is the story of the year
                            • [05:12] - Is NVIDIA the Cisco of today?
                            • [10:50] - The trial and error of AI
                            • [15:42] - Energy usage today + a commodity supercyle incoming?
                            • [24:41] - What are Americans’ true sentiments on the economy?

                            • View Transcript


                              Links

                              • Nvidia now worth more than all German stocks put together
                              • Nvidia’s share of data center compute market has grown from about 15% five years ago to circa 80% today
                              • Goldman: Peak oil demand is still a decade away
                              • Oddlots - Goldman’s Jeff Currie: it’s a commodities supercycle
                              • Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden

                              • Connect with our hosts

                                • Doug Stokes
                                • Greg Stokes
                                • Stokes Family Office

                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                  • Spotify
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                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                  • Disclosure

                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                    30 min
                                  • General Optimism Has Been the Recipe for Success

                                    As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, we’ll touch on some of the biggest headlines including Trump’s Media company woes and an endless shrimp promotion leading to bankruptcy for Red Lobster. And with the bears dropping out of the conversation, we’ll look at forecast grades for industry experts and how long-term optimism plays into the equation. 


                                    Key Takeaways

                                    • [03:25] - Trump Media hardships
                                    • [06:37] - Red Lobster and the Endless Shrimp Investigation
                                    • [09:52] - The business of weight loss
                                    • [12:45] - Grading gurus and optimists over the long term
                                    • [19:33] - Inflation update: rent + auto prices 

                                    • Links

                                      • Trump Media, valued at $7 billion, booked less than $1 million in first-quarter sales
                                      • Red Lobster: The endless shrimp investigation
                                      • WSJ: Red Lobster gets stung by endless shrimp
                                      • Hims & Hers rallies after launching affordable Wegovy alternatives
                                      • Nestlé launches frozen food brand aimed at weight-loss drug users
                                      • JP Morgan's Kolanovic is the last prominent bear as Mike Wilson folds
                                      • CXO Advisory’s guru grades
                                      • Detrick: Why is better inflation data coming?

                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                        • Doug Stokes
                                        • Greg Stokes
                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                          • Spotify
                                          • Google Podcasts
                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                          • Disclosure

                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.



                                            25 min
                                          • Shelter Continues to Drive Inflation

                                            As markets hit all-time highs again, we’ll look at shelter being the key driver of inflation. We’ll also touch on Roaring Kitty, meme stocks, and why you can’t gamble on the markets. We’ll finish with the Scottie Scheffler story and take a look at the future of EVs and fossil fuel consumption.


                                            Key Takeaways

                                            • [02:41] - Shelter continues to be the main inflation driver 
                                            • [08:05] - Who is Roaring Kitty + gambling on the markets
                                            • [12:48] - Scottie Scheffler arrest story
                                            • [15:27] - The decline of Bird Scooters + Apple Vision Pros
                                            • [18:18] - Electric vehicles & improving tech/techniques for fossil fuels

                                            • Links

                                              • Zandi: harmonized core CPI inflation (from the BLS) and harmonized core PCE inflation
                                              • Roche: Shelter will continue to be the main driver of inflation in the coming year.
                                              • Davey Day Trader
                                              • Scottie Scheffler arrested before PGA Championship Round 2

                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                • Stokes Family Office

                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                  • Spotify
                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                  • Disclosure

                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                    29 min
                                                  • In the Grand Scheme of Things

                                                    We jump into a conversation we recently had about the inverted yield curve and what it means as a recessionary signal plus, why the charlatans and doom-and-gloomers continue to pop up. We’ll then take a trip down memory lane, via stats and stories, about what investing was like in the early 2000s and what it’s like at all-time highs. We’ll finish with a reminder that although the short term can feel long, it’s important to contextualize and focus on the long term. 


                                                    Key Takeaways

                                                    • [00:18] - The inverted yield curve + bank deposit rates
                                                    • [05:07] - Recession charlatans + are there any reliable market signals?
                                                    • [11:27] - Investing at all-time highs and in the early 2000s
                                                    • [18:37] - Focusing on the macro/long-term

                                                    • Links

                                                      • Timmer: Maybe the 0.5% bank deposit rate has something to do with the lack of economic response
                                                      • At JPMorgan, the nation's largest bank, net interest income dropped 4% from the previous quarter, falling for the first time in 11 quarters
                                                      • Don’t take investment advice from Robert Kiyosaki
                                                      • Cardone: WARNING: Stock Market is due for 50% correction taking S&P below 2674
                                                      • Zaccardi: Investing at all-time highs isn't so bad

                                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                                        • Doug Stokes
                                                        • Greg Stokes
                                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                                          • Spotify
                                                          • Google Podcasts
                                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                          • Disclosure

                                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                            23 min
                                                          • The Market Reacts to Fed Day

                                                            As earnings and economic growth deliver above expectations, the market is digesting new information from Jerome Powell and the Fed that rate cuts aren’t coming soon. We’ll look back at the last 30 years of returns and ahead to the next 10 years of prices, discuss offshoring jobs, and give bond market and inflation updates.


                                                            Key Takeaways

                                                            • [00:19] - Fed Day breakdown
                                                            • [05:07] - April brought a much-needed market reset
                                                            • [09:16] - Looking back at the last 30 years' returns + what to expect over the next 10
                                                            • [16:50] - The efficiency of offshoring jobs
                                                            • [24:51] - Bond market + inflation updates

                                                            • Links

                                                              • YTD we see 10 of 11 sectors are higher, with cyclical areas like energy, industrials and financials leading the way
                                                              • So far, in Q1, the #EPS surprises have been the highest since 2021 with the dispersion of results elevated
                                                              • Did you know the S&P 500 was up 9 of the past 10 years in May?
                                                              • 30 Years of financial market returns
                                                              • Prices 10 years from now
                                                              • Faber: I'm so bullish on US stocks I think you should invest most of your money here
                                                              • The lagging components of the inflation basket

                                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                                • Stokes Family Office

                                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                                  • Spotify
                                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                                  • Disclosure

                                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                    29 min
                                                                  • Sticking With a Game Plan

                                                                    It’s peak season in Nola with Jazz Fest, the Zurich Classic, the Pels in the Playoffs, and town is buzzing. We’ll zoom out to examine what all that spending means for the national economy. We’ll also look at wide-breadth market participation and why despite a sell-off in tech, the rest of the market is holding up well. We finish with a rearview mirror view of COVID-era oil prices, how we missed a recession, and what we’re expecting for the rest of this year. 


                                                                    Key Takeaways

                                                                    • [00:20] - Fun times in Nola and what that means for the national economy
                                                                    • [03:00] - Mixed signals from the country’s biggest economists 
                                                                    • [06:38] - Things look good with the rest of the 495 S&P stocks
                                                                    • [12:18] - The COVID oil crash and why you stick with a game plan
                                                                    • [18:20] - Looking back at how we missed a recession & ahead to the rest of 2024

                                                                    • Links

                                                                      • S&P 500 Is Ripe for Further Gains, JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Says
                                                                      • Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Is Steering Clear of Bold S&P 500 Calls
                                                                      • Meta tumbles 12% after a disappointing second-quarter revenue forecast
                                                                      • S&P 1500 Value P/E
                                                                      • How rare was Friday? 300+ S&P 500 stocks were green, yet the index was down 0.9% which has only happened once since 1998
                                                                      • Four years ago, oil prices went negative
                                                                      • How rising interest rates change the relationship between stocks and bonds

                                                                      • Connect with our hosts

                                                                        • Doug Stokes
                                                                        • Greg Stokes
                                                                        • Stokes Family Office

                                                                        • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                          • Apple Podcasts
                                                                          • Spotify
                                                                          • Google Podcasts
                                                                          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                                          • Disclosure

                                                                            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                            28 min
                                                                          • Another Reminder to Ignore the Forecasts

                                                                            While the debt doomers circle, we’ll examine why no one is good at forecasting and why widely acceptable notions of cross-asset correlations are wrong. We’ll also focus on the market's strengths and discuss the incredible power of America’s dollar, wages, and efficient energy output.


                                                                            Key Takeaways

                                                                            • [00:17] - Inflation Update + shelter’s outsized effect
                                                                            • [06:33] - Disinflation + the debt-doom loop
                                                                            • [09:40] - The power of the US: the Dollar, our wages, energy production
                                                                            • [13:36] - The incredible efficiency of modern oil/energy markets
                                                                            • [15:09] - What’s happened recently when the SP has broken a positive trend line
                                                                            • [16:16] - The surprising market reaction to Iran’s missile attack

                                                                            • Links

                                                                              • Bilello: The Start of a Correction (March CPI Data)
                                                                              • Apartment List National Rent Report (April)
                                                                              • Grannis: Moderate growth and disinflation still alive and well
                                                                              • Weniger: A massive wage arbitrage has opened between the US and its competitors
                                                                              • USA has switched from large importer of oil & gas to a significant exporter
                                                                              • Carmel: We're not in a 1970s-style oil-inflation spiral
                                                                              • Detrick: S&P 500 broke the trend line from late October. What’s next?
                                                                              • Carmel: We are objectively terrible at forecasting rates
                                                                              • Roche: Why savers are in hog heaven

                                                                              • Connect with our hosts

                                                                                • Doug Stokes
                                                                                • Greg Stokes
                                                                                • Stokes Family Office

                                                                                • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                                  • Apple Podcasts
                                                                                  • Spotify
                                                                                  • Google Podcasts
                                                                                  • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                                                                  • Disclosure

                                                                                    The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

                                                                                    25 min

                                                                                  About Lagniappe

                                                                                  From the publisher's feed

                                                                                  Lagniappe is a weekly podcast from Stokes Family Office. Join Doug and Greg each week for an entertaining look at current news, personal finance, brotherly banter, and whatever else is on our minds!

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