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[Linkpost] “Thoughts on extrapolating time horizons” by Nikola Jurkovic
This is a link post.
(written for a Twitter audience)
Has AI progress slowed down? I’ll write some personal takes and predictions in this post.
The main metric I look at is METR's time horizon, which measures the length of tasks agents can perform. It has been doubling for more than 6 years now, and might have sped up recently.
By measuring the length of tasks AI agents can complete, we can get a continuous metric of AI capabilities.
Since 2019, the time horizon has been doubling every 7 months. But since 2024, it's been doubling every 4 months. What if we irresponsibly extrapolated these to 2030?
If AI progress continues at its recent rate, we get AI systems which can do one month (167 hours) of low-context SWE work by the end of 2027. If AI progress continues at the long-run historical rate, we get them by [...]
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First published:
August 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GAJbegsvnd85hX3eS/thoughts-on-extrapolating-time-horizons
Linkpost URL:
https://x.com/nikolaj2030/status/1954248757513720297
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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By LessWrongThis is a link post.
(written for a Twitter audience)
Has AI progress slowed down? I’ll write some personal takes and predictions in this post.
The main metric I look at is METR's time horizon, which measures the length of tasks agents can perform. It has been doubling for more than 6 years now, and might have sped up recently.
By measuring the length of tasks AI agents can complete, we can get a continuous metric of AI capabilities.
Since 2019, the time horizon has been doubling every 7 months. But since 2024, it's been doubling every 4 months. What if we irresponsibly extrapolated these to 2030?
If AI progress continues at its recent rate, we get AI systems which can do one month (167 hours) of low-context SWE work by the end of 2027. If AI progress continues at the long-run historical rate, we get them by [...]
---
First published:
August 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GAJbegsvnd85hX3eS/thoughts-on-extrapolating-time-horizons
Linkpost URL:
https://x.com/nikolaj2030/status/1954248757513720297
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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