Magic Markets

Magic Market #256: Geopolitics and Banana Republics


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The world order is shifting – the US is playing a global-scale game of Risk, the rand is getting stronger, and AI can’t count its ABCs. Amidst the chaos, it’s hard to know which market indicators to listen to.

In this episode of Magic Markets, The Finance Ghost and Moe-Knows dive deep into why US Treasury yields aren't necessarily the best indicator of risk, while highlighting that the rand has clawed its way back to pre-Nenegate levels.

From the potential for missiles to be flying over an annexed Greenland to how Dune can help us understand the oil supply chain, the Ghost and Moe unpack the geopolitical flashpoints that will define your portfolio this year.

This week’s Topics:

  • The Dollar Index (DXY) vs yields: Why the 10-year Treasury yield is the wrong indicator for US risk right now.
  • The rand’s Lost Decade recovery: How the ZAR has clawed its way back to 2016 levels and what ‘fair value’ means for your offshore timing.
  • The death of "There’s War, Buy Oil": Why geopolitical flares in Iran and Venezuela aren't spiking crude prices like they used to.
  • The credit card cap trap: The unintended consequences of US interest rate caps on Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
  • Taiwan and the semiconductor tail risk: Why the US focus on Greenland and LatAm might be emboldening moves in the East.
  • Reach out to us on X: @MagicMarketsPod@FinanceGhost and @MohammedNalla or pop us a note on LinkedIn.

    Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Please speak to your personal financial advisor.

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    Magic MarketsBy The Finance Ghost and Moe-Knows

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