Magic Markets

Magic Markets #278: Aylett & Co. on Alcohol Stocks


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Aylett & Co. returns to Magic Markets for a deep dive into one of the more debated sectors in global markets: alcohol.

Justin Ritchie and Ryann Dean unpack the big question facing investors: is the recent weakness in alcohol stocks structural, or simply cyclical? From the COVID-era demand surge and subsequent hangover to shifting consumption patterns, affordability pressures and inventory cycles, this episode cuts through the noise with a data-driven lens (and a healthy dose of scepticism about popular narratives aroung GLP-1 impacts and Gen Z drinking habits).

Premiumisation, no-alcohol products and the contrasting dynamics between beer and spirits - it's all in here, including a look at developed vs. emerging markets.

Key Topics Covered

  • Structural vs cyclical debate in alcohol stocks
  • COVID demand pull-forward and the post-pandemic unwind
  • GLP-1 drugs and their real (and overstated) impact on consumption
  • Generational drinking trends and long-term volume declines
  • Affordability pressures and changing consumer behaviour
  • Premiumisation: drinking less, but better
  • Inventory cycles in spirits vs beer
  • Regional dynamics: emerging markets vs developed markets
  • Growth in no-alcohol beer and ready-to-drink cocktails
  • Strategies companies are using to reignite demand
  • Beer vs spirits: defensiveness and cyclicality
  • Valuation compression and investment opportunities
  • Comparison with tobacco and other “vice” sectors
  • Find out more about Aylett & Co. here:

    • Aylett.co.za
    • Justin Ritchie on LinkedIn
    • Ryann Dean on LinkedIn
    • Get in touch:

      • The Magic Markets Website
      • @MagicMarketsPod, @FinanceGhost, and @MohammedNalla (all on X)
      • Pop us a note on LinkedIn
      • Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please speak to your personal financial advisor. Aylett & Co. (Pty) Ltd is an authorised Financial Services Provider, licence number 20513.

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