The Republican presidential primary is shaping up to be a case of déjà vu. 

In 2015 into 2016, Donald Trump gained an early lead and never looked back. The hype about a well-funded, twice-elected Florida governor proved to be illusory. Most of Trump’s opponents waited around for someone else to take him down until it was too late. Chris Christie, one of the few Trump opponents who had sharp words for Trump, was too moderate for Republicans. Trump dominated the only thing that seemed to matter: the media’s attention. Most of the GOP’s elite donors, opinion pages, and elected leaders rallied in opposition to Trump (often privately) and prayed that some meteor-like event would destroy his candidacy 

So far in 2023: 1) Ron DeSantis may be reprising the role of Jeb Bush; 2) Nikki Haley and Mike Pence (so far) are reprising the role of Trump’s milquetoast challengers, who occasionally swat at him but rarely damage him; 3) Chris Christie is reprising the role of … Chris Christie; 4) Trump is once again flooding social media, email inboxes and cable news with his own content; and 5) many Republicans are once again looking to the sky for meteors, this time in the form of criminal indictments.

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Raghu Manavalan is the host and senior editor of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.
Jenny Ament is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.