The Vermont Conversation with David Goodman

Maria Stephan on the 3.5% Rule and how nonviolent protest can stop authoritarianism


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The No Kings protests in October, which drew over seven million people across the country, were hailed as the largest demonstrations in American history. Now the question for many people is: What works to stop authoritarianism?

Maria Stephan has been studying this question. Her award-winning book, “Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict,” co-authored with Erica Chenoweth of Harvard, examines a century of resistance movements around the world. They determined that nonviolent protests are more than twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts. Chenoweth went on to coin the widely cited 3.5% Rule, which states that when 3.5% of the population protest nonviolently, the movement will win. 

“When you have 3.5% of a population, which in the United States is roughly 12 million people, that means a movement is representative. It's hard to ignore. It's highly disruptive. And behind those 3.5% are many, many more people who support the aims of the movement,” Stephan told The Vermont Conversation.

Maria Stephan was a strategic planner with the U.S. Department of State and founded and directed the Program on Nonviolent Action at the U.S. Institute of Peace. She is the author and editor of five books on authoritarianism and civil resistance. She was born and raised in Vermont and currently lives in New York City, where she is chief organizer with the Horizons Project, which she describes as “building a strong pro-democracy front that brings people together from different parts of society to effectively counter authoritarianism in the U.S.” 

Stephan highlighted the many tactics of the movement against authoritarianism. “We know from studying nonviolent resistance campaigns against authoritarian regimes around the world that it's the organized acts of non-cooperation — when people withhold their consumer buying power, when workers withhold labor, when security forces refuse to use repression vis a vis peaceful protesters — these acts of non-cooperation are what is really key to the success of pro-democracy movements, and we're seeing this across the country.”

She cited examples of “people taking courageous stands both as individuals and collectively.” These include “the powerful image of the Idaho teacher, Sarah Inama, who refused to take down the sign ‘Everyone is Welcome Here’ in her classroom, which resulted in the whole community mobilizing in support of inclusive classrooms.”

There was Rachel Cohen, “the young lawyer who left her law firm after it capitulated to Trump. She not only left the firm, she organized thousands of lawyers to similarly commit to not be part of firms that engage in that type of capitulation.” 

Stephan said that in the higher education sector, “seven out of nine universities have refused a higher education compact offered by the Trump administration that would have offered access to federal funding in exchange for various forms of censorship on campus.” And the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, she said, refused ICE agents access to their grounds to coordinate arrests of immigrants and undocumented people.

“For all these reasons and all the powerful, joyful, creative acts of defiance and community care I'm seeing across the country. I believe we will prevail.”

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