Mark Penn Polls

Results of the September 2020 Harvard Harris Poll.

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Each month, presidential Pollster Mark Penn shares his analysis of the newest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. Fielded August 28-30, this month's poll surveyed 1,604 registered voters on their preference in the 2020 election, Trump's job approval numbers, his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the general mood of the country, police reform, Congress's approval numbers, the 2020 election, general outlook on the economy, mail-in voting in November, policing and race, the role of social media platforms, US-China relations and much more. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

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Each month, presidential Pollster Mark Penn shares his analysis of the newest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. Fielded July 21-23, this month's poll surveyed 1,932 registered voters on Trump's job approval numbers and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the general mood of the country, police reform, Congress's approval numbers, the 2020 election, general outlook on the economy, mail-in voting in November, policing and race, the role of social media platforms, US-China relations and much more. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income,

employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

Sign up to receive monthly polls - harvardharrispoll.com

You can follow the podcast on: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein, @Castbox_fm, @Overcast, @Castro.

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn (@Mark_Penn_Polls) shares analysis of a new Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, fielded June 16 - June 18. Topics covered include: Black Lives Matter, Police Reform, the Government Response to COVID-19, the Economy, the Overall Mood of the Country, the 2020 Election and much more.

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You can follow the podcast on: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein, @Castbox_fm, @Overcast, @Castro.

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn (@Mark_Penn_Polls) shares analysis of a new Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, fielded May 14-16 among 1,854 registered voters.

Download Report: http://bit.ly/PDF_HHPoll_May

Here are the important topics of the day as the voters see them:

VOTER MOOD – America is concerned and uncertain about re-opening, and voters are looking for leadership and unity. 68% are most concerned about opening up too soon compared to 32% who are primarily concerned about economic damage and hardship. We see some stark demographic differences in the answer to this question, with Democrats and urban demographics being most concerned about re-opening too soon, and Republicans and rural demographics the least. Overall, 85% of voters believe we should continue shelter in place practices for at least another month. And three-quarters of voters want another stimulus bill, with 64% preferring it be passed immediately and 59% saying we should pass all the proposed stimulus elements even if it has a price tag of $3 trillion. However, voters do not want stimulus money to be earmarked for undocumented immigrants.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE – confidence in the economy continues to decrease, with a majority voters believing the country will be in a recession 6 months from now and less than 1 in 3 thinking the US economy is strong and trending in the right direction. However, the number of voters who say their economic situation is declining has peaked, down just three points month-over-month suggesting that the worst impact may be over.

MANAGING THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK – Given the economic confidence and uncertainty about reopening, it is no surprise that the administration’s job approval in handling the coronavirus is down 5 points month-over-month, from 51% in April to 46% this month. However, the numbers could shift yet again: voters believe all major institutions are functioning, with the White House receiving the highest score at 80%. And President Trump continues to receive majority approval in managing the economy and stimulating jobs.

MICHAEL FLYNN CASE – Voters are split in their support of the justice department dropping the case against Michael Flynn, and in general less than half know what Flynn was charged about. When prompted with details from the DOJ’s decision to drop the case, a majority support the dropping of the charges. But a majority also believe the FBI had reason to investigate Michael Flynn, and that it was right for President Obama to know about an FBI investigation into the national security adviser of the incoming administration and to be briefed on his conversations. Worryingly, a small majority also believe Obama administration officials conspired to leak news of intercepted conversations between Michael Flynn and Russian officials to discredit and have Flynn fired or not.

TARA READE/ BIDEN ALLEGATIONS – There is widespread awareness of the sexual harassment allegation towards Joe Biden, with a slight majority of voters believing the accusations. However, 6 in 10 voters claim this allegation has no effect on their likelihood to vote for Biden.

2020 ELECTION – Interest in the election remains strong, with 77% of voters indicating they are very likely to vote. Biden continues to lead Trump in a head-to-head match-up; among likely voters in our poll, Trump collects 43% of the vote, Biden 47%, with independent candidates at 6% and the unsure vote at 5%. When given a forced choice between the two, 53% of likely voters select Biden and 47% Trump, indicating that the remaining vote breaks in favor of Biden.

This is just a selection of the core issues explored in our poll. As always, please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions and suggestions.

You can follow the podcast on: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein, @Castbox_fm, @Overcast, @Castro.

Pollster Mark Penn shares findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, which was fielded April 14-16 among 2,394 registered voters. Download full report: http://bit.ly/HarvardHarrisApr16

The poll shows Americans changing from concerned purely about the virus to greater concern about the economy. Focusing on the economy and jobs is gaining in salience -- this is now the second most important issue in the country (41% of voters) after the management of the coronavirus crisis (the top issue for voters, at 63%). Four in 10 voters report their financial situation is getting worse (a 20 point jump since January); and only 32% say the economy is on the right track (down from 51% in January).

Americans back the current lockdown in overwhelming numbers, and a majority thinks it should continue for about a month. Americans are optimistic about overcoming the virus and getting back to normal.

President Trump’s approval stands at 49%, tied for a record high in our poll. Fifty-one percent approve of his work on the virus, slightly up. Voters continue to approve of his stewardship of the economy. He trails Joe Biden in the horserace for re-election but the race is within a few points among likely voters.

Overall, voters believe President Trump and Congress should pass another stimulus bill, with the majority believing the bill should help fund small business loans and struggling hospitals, but not other priorities. Nearly all voters today agree that sufficient protective materials for healthcare workers and social distance orders for at-risk populations are necessary steps before re-opening the economy.

Voters are not happy over the partisanship around the coronavirus response. However, most now see Trump as acting more out of national interest and 60% see Nancy Pelosi as acting out of partisanship. For the first time Republicans have an image equal to or better than Democrats as a party.

Fifty-six percent believe individual states should make their own decisions about the response to the crisis and 61% want individual states to be in charge of the decision to ease social distancing and remove restrictions to reopen the US economy.

These and more issues are touched in this rich and fascinating poll on Americans' views. As always, please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions and suggestions.

You can follow my podcast on the poll at SoundCloud (full episode) or any of the following channels: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein, @Castbox_fm, @Overcast, @Castro.

A new Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted among 2,410 registered voters between March 27 - March 29, 2020, shows a dramatic shift in public opinion regarding the government's handling of the Coronavirus Pandemic and overall outlook for the future.

FOLLOW @Mark_Penn_Polls (https://twitter.com/Mark_Penn_Polls) for daily updates and SIGN-UP to have the findings of each monthly poll delivered directly to your inbox at https://harvardharrispoll.com/.

The Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll is conducted by The Harris Poll online within the United States every monthly and captures the responses of over 2,400 registered voters. The results reflect a nationally representative sample. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

The Co-Directors of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll are:

- Stephen D. Ansolabehere – Professor of Government & Director, Center for American Political Studies, Harvard University

- Mark J. Penn – Visiting Lecturer, Harvard University & Managing Partner, The Stagwell Group

- Dritan Nesho – Fellow, Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science & CEO of HarrisX

Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders? Who stacks up best vs. Trump? A new Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted among 2,000+ registered voters between February 27-29, 2020, sheds light on the public's post-impeachment attitudes and drills down on headline-grabbing topics: coronavirus, the 2020 election, presidential war powers, Russian campaign meddling, Trump and the Justice Department, sanctuary cities and possible 401K retirement savings plan rules revisions.

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A new Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted among 2,500+ registered voters between February 27-29, 2020, sheds light on the public's attitudes regarding The Trump Administration's unilateral strikes against Iran and, more broadly, presidential war powers. The poll also explored post-impeachment attitudes on other headline-grabbing topics: coronavirus, the 2020 election, presidential war powers, Russian campaign meddling, Trump's intimidation of his own Justice Department, sanctuary cities and possible revisions to longstanding 401K/retirement plan rules.

Follow @Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Mark_Penn_Polls

Register for the next Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll: https://harvardharrispoll.com/

A new Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted among 2,500+ registered voters between February 27-29, 2020, sheds light on the public's attitudes regarding SANCTUARY CITIES. The poll also explored post-impeachment attitudes on other headline-grabbing topics: The Trump Administration's handling of the Coronavirus Pandemic, the 2020 election, presidential war powers, Russian campaign meddling, Trump's intimidation of his own Justice Department, sanctuary cities and possible revisions to longstanding 401K/retirement plan rules.

Follow @Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter: twitter.com/Mark_Penn_Polls

Register for the next Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll: harvardharrispoll.com/