Mark Penn Polls

As the Ukraine situation was developing, we managed to get here some of the earliest data, just before the full release of all the materials and of the whistleblower complaint. We were able to capture what the American public was thinking. First, we asked them have you heard anything involving issues related to the investments of Joe Biden's son? About half had. We asked them, in contrast, have they heard about President Trump and Guilliani wanting the Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son over these investments? 58% had. So actually, pretty good recognition that Joe Biden's son and Joe Biden might have an issue in here, which is what the President Trump has been pushing. Larger recognition of what President Trump and Guilliani have been doing to push Ukraine on the subject.

Do you think it was appropriate or inappropriate for President Trump to raise questions about investigating Joe Biden with the President of the Ukraine? No. Inappropriate, 58% went that way. They don't even think Rudy Guilliani as the President's lawyer should be raising these questions. 56% say that it was inappropriate. Then we asked was it right for someone in the intelligence community, right, to leak the details and file this kind of report as they were leaving government? 53% said they thought that was inappropriate. And when asked whether or not they thought the former intelligence official was trying to expose a problem of playing politics to hurt Trump, 50% thought that they were trying to play politics to hurt Trump. 50% expose the real problem. So there's a lot of cynicism and doubt towards everybody here. The President, Guilliani, concern about the Biden issue, concern about the so-called whistleblower.

Do you think that the Trump administration should send Congress the full complaint and the text of his call with the President of the Ukraine or hold it back on the grounds they need to remain private? Here, the President made the decision to get all the material out, and 65% of the public said that's exactly what they wanted to see happen, and it did. And then we asked two slightly different questions. Do you think that just asking the President of the Ukraine for help in investigating the actions of Joe Biden and his son, if that occurred, would be an impeachable offense or not impeachable? 55% said not impeachable. 45% impeachable. We generally have seen people wanting to impeach President Trump at around 40% all throughout the Mueller investigation. So 45 represents a slightly higher number, but 55% is also a clear rejection, even if that's the fact.

Now, changing the phrasing to do you think that pressuring the President, instead of asking, of the Ukraine for help, just that difference in investigating the actions of Biden moves to 50-50, and that doesn't mean overwhelming support or bipartisan support for impeachment, but it means significant support for impeachment. So this whole issue of whether or not it was asking and raising the topic or pressuring and holding up is an important one and also one that one side the Democrats will want to push to pressuring, and the other side, the President, will want to push to asking. And people will judge for themselves, but it's still not an overwhelming number or consensus for removal from office. And these numbers will be watched as the story unfolds.

Now, on the other hand, the story that's been pushed here, do you think that in asking the President of the Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, Trump was trying to expose a real problem, 47, play politics, 53. Again, not an overwhelming answer on either side.

Let's look at whether Joe Biden's actions were appropriate. Joe Biden is on tape saying that when he was Vice President, he withheld over a billion dollars of American aid from the Ukraine until they would fire a prosecutor, which they did.

Perhaps at this point the hottest issue in terms of the partisan battle between the two parties and the president, is that of immigration. And so, we did a deep dive into immigration this month. Once again, we find overwhelming support for what is generally called comprehensive immigration reform, 73%. Generally, that means finding a path to work permits, possibly citizenship, for those who are here on an undocumented basis, along with all the DACA children or young adults. And at the same also fixing elements of the system and how it works to include more merit, and really fixing border security. That's really seen as comprehensive immigration reform. And there's overwhelming support for a support for a compromise that just never seems to happen.

So, we went a little deeper. Should we go from a system that gives preference to the relatives of legal migrants, or should we change to a merit-based system? Narrow, 51, 49, change to a merit-based system. That really means I think that the public supports a combination of merit and family relatives, and not make it an either/or choice.

When it comes to legal immigration, do you think we have too much, too little, or about right? 45% say about right, 23% too little, 32% too much. No clear answer, other than there's very little support for increasing overall immigration. How many legal immigrants would you say reside in the United States today? I think this answer was all over the lot. One to five million was the most common answer, if you look at the estimates. They thought between one and five million legal immigrants, that's probably a vast underestimating of the real number of legal immigrants who reside in the United States, because it is tremendous numbers of people who are here legally.

In your view, how much do legal immigrants in the United States rely on public services such as food stamps, public housing, and Medicaid? 31%, a lot. 25, somewhat. 26%, a little. 6%, not at all. Should legal immigrants who pay taxes be able to access public benefits? Yes, absolutely, 89%. Should legal immigrants who pay taxes be able to access public benefits regardless of the amount of money they earn? 68%, yes. Do legal immigrants in the United States contribute more in taxes than they draw in support from the federal and local governments? Yes, 48. No, 52. Kind of a close question on that.

Should the United States welcome poor immigrants from around the world who seek a fresh start, more opportunity than where they come from, or should the US restrict legal immigration to wealthier immigrants of means? 71% of the American public says welcome poor immigrants. So, they don't want to means test all immigration. They may want to merit test a good part of it, but not means test it. They want to keep those who are in poorer countries to have an ability to share the great opportunity that can be found here in America.

Should an applicant who is educated and has a strong lifetime earning potential, but is currently poor and low income, be granted legal immigration? Ah, here's where means and merit come together. 85% say yes. Should an applicant who is wealthy but has poor health be granted legal immigration? Still 65%. Do you think it's un-American to deny poor immigrants’ access to legal immigration? 61% say yes. So, you see, there's a tremendous amount of compassion and heart out there in America for people who want to immigrate to the United States of America. Do you think it's un-American to deny poor immigrants permanent legal residence known as a green card? 60% say yes.

Let's specifically look at public attitudes towards China and towards trade deals. Do you think it's necessary or unnecessary to confront China over its trade policy now? 67% say it's necessary, so there's significant backing of the policy of confronting China. Do you think President Trump is too tough, 40%. Too lenient, 41%. Or just right, 19%, when it comes to negotiating with China. A divided American public as usual, but when you read it this way there's about 60% that say he is too lenient or about right, which means there's about 60% support for a tough policy against China. In fact, the previous question put it at 67.

Of course, tariffs, like any tax, is not a popular thing. Do you approve or disapprove of Trump's tariffs on 25% of 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods? That was split 50/50. Do you approve or disapprove of the plans for an additional 10% tariffs on certain goods, also split 50/50. So, for something as unpopular as a tariff or tax, by itself these are fairly good numbers. Do you think the tariffs are hurting most of the US or China? 63% say the US. Was the delay by the Trump administration on 160 million in tariffs on electronics and other consumer goods until after the holidays, do you think an acceptance that the tariffs would hurt the US or not see it that way? 56% saw him as backing off from something that might be hurtful to the US. They believe overwhelmingly that the US pays the cost of tariffs. But, despite some of the uncertainty and concern about tariffs, when you ask the votes is China a currency manipulator? Meaning they artificially weaken their currency to make their product more competitive, 77% of the American public says that.

And, some people say that if China has been getting the better end of our trade deals with them, it's not worth rocking the boat now to fix these issues. Others say it's important to correct trade with China now, because they will soon surpass our own economy. 80% say fix the issues now. This is, I think, a very substantial endorsement of the stand up to China policy and stand up now. Obviously, the public thinks maybe Trump will be able to get a deal, 53% say he probably won't, 47% say he will. But, from an electoral point of view, this question I think is most revealing. Do you think a Democratic president would be more, less, or just as effective as Trump at standing up to the Chinese? 33% more, 44% less, 23% just as effective. So, there's 44% who think that a Democrat would be less effective. And do you think the last few presidents stood up to China as they should have, or failed to stand up? 60% say they failed to stand up to China and let them take advantage of the US.

50/50 on whether or not we should support student protesters in Hong Kong, though that seems to be at least somewhat resolved. And it's important to understand that Xi Jinping has been named President For Life in China. And so, we asked people, does that make him an effective emperor, or is a duly elected official representing the state party? 69% see him as an emperor, which is a kind of nicer way of saying an absolute dictator over 1.4 billion people, immune from an electoral process. So, they leadership of China in a quite negative light, just as they see the country as being a currency manipulator, and that we have to take a stand now if we're going to fix these problems. Otherwise, China will continue to grow until they get passed us.

Now let's delve into election fraud. An issue that's talked about, and so I thought well, it'd be pretty interesting just to see what does the public think is really going on? I mean, that's quite different, we don't know really whether there's fraud and how much. A lot of studies show not much, but everybody on one side says that people are voting who shouldn't be allowed to vote. The other side, people say that voters are being suppressed. So, what does the American public think?

Do you think there's significant or insignificant electoral fraud in the United States? 60, 40 significant. Okay, who's to blame? Democrats, 27. Republicans, 30. Both equally, 44. So this is not seen as a Democratic issue, or a Republican issue except by those of us who are most partisan. It's primarily seen as a nonpartisan issue in which everyone has to be on guard and possibly to blame.

Do you think that significant or insignificant numbers of people not eligible to vote are voting anyway? 48% agreed with that. Do you think that significant or insignificant numbers of people who are eligible to vote are being turned away and prevented from voting? 46% agreed with that. Again, these answers are probably partisan mirrors of each other, but at least it was not a majority that believed both. And so, you see that the public sees significant fraud. Partisans of one side blame the other, but that no one really gets more blame than the other out of this. So, is there significant fraud? I couldn't tell you. Is there a lot of finger pointing? That's pretty much what this poll shows. Almost equal finger pointing from each side of the aisle against the other aisle.

Let's launch into the trends that we're seeing on the approval and mood of the country. In general, we haven't seen a lot of changes over time on the overall approvals of the key political figures in this country. President Trump remained this month at 45% job approval, where he's been for the last, really, three months within a point, coming down from a bump when we had 3.2% growth in the economy at 48. But again, within a tight and narrow range, 55% disapproving of his job.

But, if you look at it by what he's doing on the economy, 55% approval, down slightly from highs. Stimulating jobs, 55%, a majority but down slightly. Fighting terrorism, stable, 55. Immigration actually up a little at 47. Foreign affairs, 43. Administering the government, 44. Very little change on the pattern. The most interesting thing of course is the credit he gets on economy and terrorism.

What about whether the country itself is on the right track or the wrong track? Despite the economic progress and satisfaction that the voters appear to have, they continue to say that the country itself is going in the wrong direction. 54% wrong direction, 37% right direction, down slightly, and 9% don't know.

Is the economy on the right track or wrong track? Well, all of the recession talk that really occurred in the last couple of months brought down some of the most positive sentiment on the economy we've seen. 46% in this poll said wrong track, 43% said right track, after many months of people saying that the economy was more on the right track than the wrong track, going back to December when it previously dipped because of recession talk. So every time there's significant talk about a recession, the public is very sensitive to it, they pick up those cues and signals, and down goes satisfaction with the economy.

If you look at how strong do you think the economy was, back in April that was at a record high 74%. That's lost eight points now down to 66%, 34% say that it's weak. So still two thirds say that it's strong, but you see the trend as there's more recession talk. Will this month's job figures, will the fact that unemployment stayed at 3.7%, will the fact that the stock market seems to be coming back reverse that this month? Remains to be seen, it remains high, but is weakening.

What about your personal financial situation? Just as well off, 36. Improving, 33. Getting worse, 26. Pretty big jump from 21 to 26, that's a five-point move. So, you see some deterioration in these economic indicators as you look at the poll.

GOP is approval is 41%. It's low was 28% on November of '17, since we've been polling. 41% shows very little change. 59% disapprove. The Democrats are at 43% approve, they've been trending down. They got up at the midterms up to 46% approve, they've now lost three points. Just important to note that the country does not approve of the president, does not approve of the Democrats, and does not approve of the Republicans. And therefore, the swing voters in the country right now don't approve of either major party or the president.

Okay, so what's the most important issue facing the country? Well, immigration number one, 40%. This is a pretty significant jump over time, when it was barely registering. Healthcare, which had been the number one issue, 33. Guns also has been rising as an issue at 27. Jobs and the economy at 25. Terrorism, 23. Environment/climate change, 22. National deficit, 17. Crime and drugs, 13. So you can see that each of the parties has been driving issues of concern in the news and that, in fact, those most important issues have changed pretty significantly. When you look at what do voters want from Democrats, they want Democrats to address the status of undocumented immigrants, 16%. That's the number one thing they're looking to Democrats to get moving and get some legislation that addresses these issues.

Let's talk a look at guns. Guns has been rising as an issue. Two thirds of people believe that murder by gun in America in the last five years has gone up. And when you ask them what do you think is such an increase related to, 21% say urban gangs, 30% say mental illness, and 48% say, hey, easy access to guns. Underscoring a lot of people believing that if access to guns were more limited, that you would see less gun violence.

Do you favor or oppose tougher penalties for parents failing to secure their guns from their kids? Wow, 86%. And as you know, there have been some mass murders in which kids took their parents' guns, and pretty much a consensus issue. Do you favor or oppose a measure that would ban all gun ownership except for the police and the military? Wow, 36% do favor that, but 64% say no, they wouldn't want to have a society in which guns were so restricted.

An issue that I've written about a little bit after looking through the statistics is should the White House as Congress to pass legislation to raise the minimum age for purchasing guns from 18 to 21? I believe this was done in Florida. 80% support that measure. If you look at the numbers, of gun murders, right, and there's two kinds of gun violence, suicide and homicide, suicide has actually been the fastest growing gun violence, and there are about 15,000 homicides. But 20% of the homicides are committed by people 21 and under. And in fact, 50% are committed by those 25 and under. And old guys like me, not a lot of murders committed by people in their 60s. Always an exception to every trend. But, it is interesting that those under 20, 25 and under commit about half the murders, and that certainly lends itself to the question, do you think people under 25 should be permitted ... prohibited from purchasing a gun? You may remember people under 25 can't rent a car. 51% said yes to that, 49% said no. So, 80% are at age 21, 51% at age 25.

And there continues to be very strong support for legislation to improve background checks. That's really a consensus issue in America. 92% favor that. School safety improvements, 90% favor that. Removing firearms from people who are a threat by court order, that's again in the high 80s. Allowing military veterans and retired police to work as school safety, that's also favored too, almost 90. Banning bump stocks, 82. Assistance for states in training schools, 70%. Forming a commission to study age restrictions for gun purchases, and the role of video games, about 70%. So, I think the public, after all of the recent incidents, is looking for some action here. I think action along all of the dimensions, the background checks, training school personnel, and they also do back no gun under 21.

Do you think that the laws related to better controlling guns are needed more in cities, the suburbs, or the rural areas? 76% said cities, 17% said suburbs, and 7% said rural areas. So, there is a sense that the biggest gun ownership issues and homicide or gun violence issues are in urban areas, and 76% said that's where the focus should be.

When you're looking forward on the road to 2020, only 39% say they're voting for President Trump. Definitely, 28. Probably, 11. Right, and you've got 42% saying they're going to vote for the Democrat, you've got 9% voting for an independent, and 10% unsure. So no clear winner, but for an incumbent president with a good economy and 3.7% unemployment to have only 39% saying that they're going to vote to re-elect you is a real weakness, and suggests it's going to be a very tight presidential race, probably with Trump having to overcome kind of the deficit he's got right now in terms of his personal dislike.

Because we ask a question, when you think of Donald Trump, do you like or dislike him personally? Dislike him, 60%. Like him, 29%. Unsure, 11. That means in order to get elected, he has to have a lot of people voting for him, who in some sense hold their nose and say, "He's doing a good job on the economy, but I don't like him." And that's something we have rarely, if ever, seen to the extent that it's true for the personal profile of President Trump.

But, if I compare emerging messages, a presidential candidate who stands for lower taxes and reduced government regulations, strengthening our military, strengthening our border to reduce illegal immigrants, standing up more to China and Iran, and seeking better trade deals for the US, 60% prefer that message frame over a presidential candidate who stands for the Green New Deal on climate change, Medicare for all, free college tuition, opening our borders to many more immigrants, and raising taxes to pay for those programs. That may or may not be what a Democrat runs on, but those are all issues that have been talked about on the Democratic side by multiple candidates. If that is the issue face off, 60% favor the candidate on the first side, and only 40% favor it on the other side.

If you look issue by issue, wow. 89% want to see better trade deals for the US. I think that President Trump has taken an issue that was of little interest to most Americans, and really raised it up as one that they now see as quite important to the economic structure and to getting the jobs in America. Lowering taxes, opposed by only 15% and favored by 85. Standing up to China, strengthening our military, strengthening our border, 70%. Reducing government regulations, almost 70%.

But, a Green New Deal on climate change, 65% want some kind of change like that. 50 ... and if you look at it, 55, 60% like Medicare for all. Free college tuition, almost 60%. But raising taxes to pay for those programs, many of these programs have been outlined as multi-trillion-dollar programs, only 36% would do that. And opening the borders to more immigrants, only 36% would do that. So, you see that both sides have some popular issues and programs, although seeking better trade deals surprisingly is at the top of the list. You also see the weaknesses in both of those sides, but if they're put together in the issue sandwiches that we placed in the questions, you see that the Republicans and Trump have an issue edge, and a personality deficit.

Who would you most likely vote for in the Democratic primary? We have it Joe Biden at one, in the low 30s. We have Elizabeth Warren at third, but coming up. And we have Bernie Sanders really coming in second. Not a lot of change, I think you're seeing the race between Sanders and Warren continue to tighten in our poll and others. Kamala Harris is fourth. Buttigieg, the mayor from Indiana is then fifth. Beto O'Rourke with a few points, and no one else really scoring any significant votes. So, this race, no matter how many people are up there on the stage, has already narrowed essentially to a four or five-person race. However, 62% find the current set of candidates underwhelming.

Which of the candidates has the best chance to beat Donald Trump? Joe Biden, number one. Bernie Sanders much lower, Elizabeth Warren even lower, Kamala Harris even lower still.

Another major area that has been in the news has been racial tensions. 77% believe that racial tensions in this country are increasing. President Trump gets called out for this by 69%, who believe that he is helping to cause an increase in racial tensions. Only 31% decrease. Surprisingly, the news media is at 75%, higher than President Trump, as being a disruptor of race relations in the United States. The Democratic Party, 51%. Democratic presidential candidates, 50%. Taking substantial blame, but considerably less than Trump, and I think interestingly though, the role that the news media has played when there's been so little examination of what they're doing, and when the New York Times recently made race it's number one issue that it was going to discuss after the Trump, Russia collusion story is basically dead, it is interesting to see that the news media is specifically called out by the American public as doing too much to increase rather than decrease racial tensions.

Do you think America today should be a society in which minorities receive special treatment to make up for racism and past discrimination? Or should people of all races receive equal treatment? Well, 81% believe that we should be a society in which minorities ... in which all races should receive equal treatment. And only 19% believe that some groups should receive special treatment. This is a pretty resounding endorsement of the notion that as a country, the primary goal should be to make sure that all people are treated equally, regardless of their race. And I was surprised at how strong that 81% was, given the discussions by the Democratic presidential candidates, and/or what you see in the media today.

Now, bad news for President Trump, 55% do see him as a racist. 54% say that he's even potentially a white nationalist. So pretty high criticism of the president when it comes to issues of race. They do not think that publications, like the New York Times which had a debate about this, should refer to the president as a racist, they should just report what he says and not use words like that, 68% said that. And do you think racist is a fair label, or is one of political advantage? Pretty split country, 51% said they're just calling him that for political advantage. Do you think President Trump's comments at Baltimore as a crime and rat-infested mess were racist or not racist? 46% racist, 54% not racist. So, I think this polling gives you a pretty strong overview that President Trump received some pretty tough news here in terms of majority of people viewing him as a racist. But on the other hand, there is a very strong notion here that we should be a color-blind society, and that the news and media is even more at fault than President Trump. Quite surprising.

Well, let's take a look at Greenland. I personally haven't been to Greenland. But I think that we asked the American public a few questions about it. Do you believe the Arctic is today a region of global competition? Yes, 45. No, 55. Are you concerned that Russia and China are using new Arctic routes through the melting ice to gain economic advantage? 56, yes. But the most important question, do you support or oppose the Trump administration trying to purchase Greenland from Denmark? 38% support it, 62% oppose it. So, I don't think that President Trump has actually made a real serious public case for it. I think this is the initial instinct of the public is that it's not a region that they consider of vital importance, and they're not inclined to support any such plan at the moment.

This month we also did a short section on the Russian investigation. Something that has been less and less in the news compared to it having dominated the media for over two years. Do you think that the Russia investigations are hurting the country or helping the country? 64% hurting, an uptick. 36%, helping. What should happen to President Trump for his actions? Impeach, 36%. Censured, 21%. No action, 42%. Again, we're seeing impeachment trend down from 40 to 36%. Do you think evidence of collusion was found? That has now dropped to 37%, it was as high as 41. Do you think that there's evidence of obstruction? That's at 42%. So, nothing that approaches the magic 50% mark, let alone the two thirds required to convict in the Senate.

Meanwhile, do you think bias against Trump and the FBI played a role in launching the investigations? That has jumped up to 55%, and although it was trending down for a number of months, those who favor a special counsel to investigate the FBI are back up to 66%. And 81% favor releasing of all information. And, if the Department of Justice Inspector General finds that there was wrongdoing in the start of this investigation, 54% believe that those responsible should face justice, including possibly going to jail. Right, and 15% say the findings of the Trump, Russia probe should be thrown out, given that the start was tainted. Both, 22%. So you're looking here at substantial majorities, if the Inspector General report says that there were improprieties in the creation of this investigation, who believe that there should be real accountability, including people possibly going to jail.

Given the Mueller report, do you think we should turn the page on investigations of President Trump? Yes, 55% say turn the page. If Democrats launched scores of new investigations, would you be more likely to vote for them? 26. Less likely, 35. No effect, 39. And this is kind of an important question, do you think Democrats in Congress are doing too much, too little, or about right to investigate Donald Trump? Too much, 41. Too little, 32. 27, about right. So, you could read that question any which way you want, you could say about right, and too little is 59, or you can say too much and about right is 68. But I think you are seeing here tremendous investigation fatigue, as you see these numbers ... as these numbers trending, and most importantly, I think that question turn the page got 55% now.

So, we'll see, we're all waiting for the final report by the Inspector General, and that will either close the book on everything most likely, or it'll open up a whole series of new investigations and possible prosecutions. And at the same time, the Democrats are continuing down the road of impeachment, but they're not picking up any steam for it. Even Tom Steyer, the Democratic candidate, looks like he won't be making it to the next round despite having ... in the presidential debates, despite having spent substantial amounts of his own money on TV advertising.