Market Depth

The sustained and incredibly resilient Japan equity rally crashed today - despite broader indices left relatively unscathed (although S&P E-Mini futures also followed Japan indices sharply downward during Asia hours).

Why did this occur, and what does it mean for the world's favorite and best performing market, as well as broader markets globally?

Weston Nakamura breaks down the three sell-catalysts from the day: Chinese exports data that came in weaker than expectations, the -7% plunge in the Turkish lira, and officials in parliament discussing the unwinding of Bank of Japan's 37 trillion yen worth of equity ETF holdings - the latter two being the actual market moving catalysts.

Weston talks about the immediate market risk that the lira may pose if it begins a runaway momentum sell-off that forces Japan retail to liquidate other assets, and also discusses the implications of Bank of Japan selling its equity index ETF holdings.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Reserve Bank of Australia shocks markets again, hiking rates for a second consecutive time after having paused once before, and thereby setting precedence for the June FOMC next week, when the Fed is expected to “skip” a rate hike. Weston Nakamura explains the significance of the RBA’s policy behavior to other major central banks.

Weston also shows how and why AUD matters to risk assets, such as the S&P500 index, and explains how the (in)famous AUDJPY carry trade works - noting that AUDJPY is currently re-correlating with the S&P500 price action.

Finally, Weston shares his big revelation of the day with regards to his ongoing working theory of the China policy insider trading - discovering that he may have been incorrect in his reading of the China Property and Development Sector indices’ price action, but in doing so, ultimately provides more clarity on what may be happening in the peculiar market behavior in Chinese equities.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Following up from Friday's episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura reviews the global equity markets' initial reactions to China's after-hours headline for new stimulus targeted at the Chinese real estate, property and development sectors on Friday evening in Asia. The market impact was significant across the world, with stocks like Caterpillar pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 2% at US close to outperform the S&P500 and Nasdaq indices in immediate reaction, as well as it's Japanese peer Komatsu and other machinery stocks driving the Nikkei 225 index by over 2% to another 33-year high at Asia market open on Monday.

In fact, the only major equity market region and sector that did not participate with an initial upside reaction was China's property and development sector indices - a strange phenomenon, given the direct relevance of the catalyst.

Weston once again examines whether China's policy insiders may be revealing a clearer picture of the policy intent as reflected in market price action and behavior, prior to, and after the stimulus headline.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chinese shares in the Hang Seng Index staged a massive recovery rally to end the week in which it temporarily fell into official bear market territory, and uplifted the entire region for a broad based equity market surge during the Asia trading session.

Then, after Asia markets close, Bloomberg reports that China will unveil a new stimulus package to support the systematically critical and increasingly dangerous, debt-ridden property and development sector - which subsequently ignited a strong, risk-on rally across global indices.

Weston Nakamura takes a deep look into the peculiar chronology of the price action in Chinese property and development sector indices - and offers a differentiated take on whether this is indeed the long-awaited turning point for China to proactively stimulate the world's second largest economy, or if this is an empty symbolic gesture.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

A lousy Manufacturing PMI reading out of China pulled the Hang Seng index officially into bear market territory, sent the yuan crashing through 7.10, and seemed to have set off a broader, risk-off market move that reverberated across asset classes globally. 

But, did yet another piece of weak economic data from China really spook global markets - particularly the previously China-resilient DM equity indices such as Japan? After all, Asia equities ex-China have been leading the world higher for several weeks, ignoring one disappointing data release out of China after another. What (else) actually happened to stop the market momentum today? 

Weston Nakamura points to technical market mechanics that are also behind the selling activity - namely, month-end portfolio rebalancing flows and activity on outperforming Japan and A.I. related equities as a primary culprit for the market reversal. Weston notes that without recognizing such market mechanics, we may be mistakenly attributing market behavior to China, when in reality, equity market price action may have very little to do with a weak data print out of China all along.

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--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

We are in the midst of key conferences for markets - from the CLSA Japan Summit in Tokyo, to A.I. focused Computex in Taiwan, to China-themed conferences by Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong and JP Morgan in Shanghai.

Weston Nakamura takes a look into using these conferences as potential near term, directional turning points for markets - and presents the case for a potential larger trend reversal for a pause in upside for Japan equities, and a rebound upward in Chinese and Hong Kong equities, based on these conference events.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Prior to Asia markets open, major headlines came out of Washington that a debt ceiling deal had been made - and Asia equity indices, particularly in Japan, had traded positively on the day. With the US and parts of European markets closed for holiday, Asia was the only barometer of market reaction.

But, just how much of the upside was due to the debt ceiling, if any? After all, China and Hong Kong had yet another down day, and the Nikkei 225 Index has been clocking in new three-decade-high levels throughout the month.

Weston Nakamura points to the real driver of equity markets today - continued bullish momentum on A.I. and semiconductor related themes, as markets largely shrug off the US debt ceiling, until forced to do so.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

May was the worst month for markets that have bet on the China reopen theme - and this final week was particularly bad.

Weston Nakamura walks through various markets - from equities, to commodities, to fixed income, and of course, the yuan, and shows how each asset class is in agreement - the China reopen theme is dead. What's more, there is still room to the downside in many of these markets.

Weston also discusses how he is framing up trading a widely expected rate cut from the PBOC.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Despite Fitch putting the US's credit rating on negative watch, global markets are largely brushing off debt-ceiling risk. Weston Nakamura comments on the knee-jerk market reaction to the Fitch headline of strength in the yen and in gold, and also provides color on how the largest foreign creditors to the United States, the Japanese institutional investors, are viewing a potential US default, and what they are doing in the US Treasury markets. Weston also provides a potential trade set up in the event of a US technical default outcome.

Weston then discusses the massive market impact on Asia shares during the trading session off of Nvidia's huge guidance beat - as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, TSMC, SK Hynix and other stocks across the Asia region rallied, and thereby lifted the Nikkei225 index back into positive territory.

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Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

After hitting new three-decade-highs day after day, Japan's incredible equity market rally finally comes to an end. Notably, Japan's market direction, both to the upside as well as down, has been driving the broader global equity markets directionally in tandem - putting in the top tick on index futures down to the minute.

Weston Nakamura dives into futures markets daily trading data from Japan Exchange and analyzes exactly who was buying, and who was selling, by participant - and finds that despite the downturn in the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices, foreigners remain net buyers of Japan equities. Therefore, it seems that there may still be upside in Japan, and therefore in global equities on the other side of this pullback.

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Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U

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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.