So this market is turning out like I expected, just about three weeks late.  Ribeyes and tenderloins and giving ground, even though they are historically high for January they are heading in the right direction… down.  Strip Loin and Short Loins are picking up that market pricing moving higher along with grinds. Chucks and rounds seem to be just churning steady right now.  Production last week was back to non-holiday totals with 661K head harvested up from the holiday short week of 563K head the week prior. The next big beef holidays are Valentine’s day and St Patrick’s Day.  With this very late movement lower on middle meats the bump for Valentine’s day we usually see should be pretty muted.  

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This time in January we should be seeing substantial discounting on ribeyes and tenderloins.  Not seeing any movement lower.  The premium holiday items are holding onto all those gains in December.  With the discounting on those middle meats we traditionally see increases on chuck, rounds strips and especially ground beef.  We are seeing those traditional seasonal increases.  With a total harvest of 547K head last week, down from the prior week’s 566K and this week will also be a holiday shortened work week sellers are showing they are confident they can move product at these reduced volumes.  I’m still holding onto a move lower for Ribeyes and tenderloins, but lets look for this move toward the end of the month.  An interesting start to 2023.  

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So arctic temperatures and bad weather across the country took my expectations and just stomped on them.  Holiday shortened beef production was 566K head down from the previous full week of 629K head. We have another week of two weeks of shortened work weeks which will be making product tight over the next couple weeks.  Already those anticipated drops in Tenderloins and ribeyes are not happening.  I’m going to push them out a couple weeks in expectation.  I still think we have some down side here, just not as soon as I anticipated.  On the other side, loins,  rounds, chucks and especially grinds are moving up daily.  With lower cattle numbers to process the pressure to make money on every head increases.  Product is going to be tight and I think too expensive for January.  I’d buy just what I need and wait for opportunities to break. 

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Thanks for joining me today, three days before Christmas and nine days to a new year.  Let’s start with looking at beef this week. 
Beef production last week was down to 629 thousand head harvested compared to the previous week 652 head. Production will be holiday shortened even more the next couple weeks and I do expect January to start out at lower weekly slaughter levels.  Next week is it for high prices on ribeyes and tenderloins, squeeze out as much profit as possible before the big down turn come January. Expect steady increase now on strip loins, chucks, rounds and grinds to make up for those lower middle meat prices. 
Episode Sources
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

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Looking at pork, and bellies had a roller coaster week up and down but as of yesterday, back down to close at $84.58 up from last week at $80.49.  At these levels the only questions is how much to buy, not if to buy.  The rest of the pork complex is similarly low and offering great value.  I often say pork is a value protein to offer and it is so true right now.
 
Episode Sources:
https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

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Chicken's been a bargain for several weeks and to my surprise, we were not at the bottom of this market.  Wings moving lower again.  This is not a healthy market.  Packers losing money on every bird they sell but I don’t see this turning just yet.  There are deals to be had on chicken, breasts, tender, wings.  Packers just need to keep the meat moving.  Production is lowering but only slightly, not enough to make a real difference just yet.  Now to the weekly avian flu update.  19 new reports affecting 323K birds, almost all turkeys.  Total birds lost this year, 53 million. And the beat goes on…   

Episode Sources:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.barchart.com/ 

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

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Avian Flu continues to plague the poultry industry.  For the last week, 15 new reports affecting 1.9 million birds.  Total birds removed from the food supply this year:  52.4 million, and we are not done.  As the southern migration continues bird flu is now being reported in Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia.  The CEO of Hormel, Jim Snee,  which owns Jennie O turkey expects bird flu to affect supply into the second half of 2023 – no relief anytime soon.
 
Episode Sources:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/swine-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/mexico-detects-h5n1-bird-flu-farm-near-us-border-2022-10-31/

https://avinews.com/en/two-avian-influenza-outbreaks-detected-in-colombia/#:~:text=Maria%20Camila%20Alfaro-,Avian%20influenza%20continues%20hitting%20the%20poultry%20industry%20worldwide.,Colombian%20Agricultural%20Institute%20(ICA).

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-animal-health-emergency-after-bird-flu-outbreak-2022-11-30/

https://www.just-food.com/news/hormel-foods-ceo-jim-snee-braces-for-volatile-high-cost-new-year/

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The focus is on turkey for next week.  There are turkeys to sell, but the price is pretty stiff.  Avian Flu has hit turkey hard this year and unlike to previous outbreak in 2015 this one is not over yet.  The avian flu numbers for the week, are relatively modest with 9 new reports affecting 50K birds.  Total birds affected so far this year, 50.3 million.  While turkeys were hit very hard, chicken down the southern seaboard were relatively virus free and there is way too much chicken on the market right now.  For the second week in a row eggs sets are below last year so numbers will ease in the coming weeks.  Right now chicken is “cheap” and plentiful and I don’t see that changing at least the next couple weeks.  

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This beef market is moving up pretty aggressively and with production holding up pretty strong with 668K head harvested last week, down only 5K from the week before it seems to me a bit early.  Next week everyone is talking turkey.  Grading is not great, with premium products at premium prices and short on the market.  Select grade and commodity choice product are showing much more available.  I think we are in a few more weeks of increasing markets so if you need product, buying sooner is better than waiting.  The chuck complex and grinds are leading the way up in this market. 

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

 https://www.urnerbarry.com/

 https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

 https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crop-progress-report-11722

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