Continuing to look at Avian Flu, only two farms reporting cases over the last week, with 130 birds affected.  I’m about done with Avian Flu so would like it to please just go away.  The damage is done, the recovery in process.  If we don’t see any flare-ups of new cases in the fall we should be looking good come January.

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.

Episode Sources:
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

https://www.barchart.com/

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Pork bellies set a new record high on Tuesday closing at $242.  Yesterday’s close came off that high to close at $215 which is up from last week’s $209.  This is expensive territory for bacon.  If you have to have it, I’d buy just what you need, but I’m not expecting this market to hold for too long.

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.

Episode Sources:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/1/first-grain-ship-leaves-ukraine-what-where-and-why-this-matters

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

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Continuing to look at Avian Flu and we added a new state this past week as Florida makes the 38th state with reported cases, including the Florida operation only 450 new cases reported.  Looking forward to a week with no new cases.  Chicken market is tanking.  Like dropping like a rock and back to costs we are used to seeing, dropping several dollars per case next week.  Production is still steady but demand has fallen off.  I think we’ve got a few more weeks of these lower prices.  Time of a wing special.  Turkey continues to be expensive with tight supplies.  Buy chicken.

Episode Sources: 

1. https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
2. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html 
3. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
4. https://www.urnerbarry.com/
5. https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
6. http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html

Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com

Find us on Social Media:

1. Instagram
2. Facebook
3. YouTube
4. Twitter
5. LinkedIn

Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

I keep hoping Avian Flu is on its last leg and new cases are certainly down, but over the last week 42,000 head were reported infected, mostly turkey operations in Utah.  That brings our total number of birds lost to over 40,100,000.  Maybe this week’s nationwide heat wave will help end the new cases.  We hold at 37 states with reported cases.  Looking at chicken and QSR and foodservice demand are lightening up while pricing for wings and boneless breasts continue lower.  Tenders seem to be the only chicken part holding value. Expect chicken to continue to return to the value protein we’ve depended on. 

Episode Sources: 

1. https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
2. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html 
3. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
4. https://www.urnerbarry.com/
5. https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
6. http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html

Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com

Find us on Social Media:

1. Instagram
2. Facebook
3. YouTube
4. Twitter
5. LinkedIn

Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Episode Sources: 

1. https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
2. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html 
3. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
4. https://www.urnerbarry.com/
5. https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
6. http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html

Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com

Find us on Social Media:

1. Instagram
2. Facebook
3. YouTube
4. Twitter
5. LinkedIn

Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected steady for three weeks now.  Only 306 new cases reported since last week. the last 13 reports have all been small backyard farms, the last major producer report was almost a month ago on June 9.  We have a few very tough months to get through as turkey and egg producers look to restock their farms and get production going again.  Recovery will take pretty much the rest of 2022.  Egg prices are starting to show the strain of losing all those birds.  Even with inflated egg prices, eggs continue to be a good value for protein.  I do think we will see continued increases on eggs.  Chicken production is holding steady and the market is pretty quiet this week.  Coming out of the holiday with lower production numbers should pause a lower market for a week or so but I still see the overall chicken market moving lower.
 
Episode Sources: 

1. https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
2. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html 
3. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
4. https://www.urnerbarry.com/
5. https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
6. http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html

Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com

Find us on Social Media:

• Instagram
• Facebook
• YouTube
• Twitter
• LinkedIn

Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected steady for three weeks now.  Only 350 new cases reported since last week so we stand at about 40 million birds lost to the virus.. Turkey products and egg products will continue to be tight to unavailable for several months. Chicken production is holding pretty steady but demand is not.  Boneless breasts continue to lower prices again this week, they have more downside to come. Wings are holding steady and tenders are finally starting to follow breasts lower but still seem pretty inflated to me.  

Episode Sources: 

• https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
• https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html 
• https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
• https://www.urnerbarry.com/
• https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
• http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html

Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com

Find us on Social Media:

• Instagram
• Facebook
• YouTube
• Twitter
• LinkedIn

Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

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Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected.   For the first time since the initial cases reported in February, we have gone a whole week with no new cases reported.  The damage done hold at just over 40 million birds removed from the food chain.  We will feel the repercussions from this for months to come, the two industry segments most affected are chicken egg layers and turkeys.  Expect very tight supply and increasing pricing for the next few months.  The southeast home to most of the chicken producers was minimally affected and after the recent run up in boneless breast prices we continue on the way down with lower prices again this week.  I think there is some more downside to this slide, as now chicken is finally back below ground beef pricing.  Still, we have more room to slide.  Wings are holding steady as demand is being well met by current production.

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Find us on Social Media:

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

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While the news is indicating that there is an upcoming beef shortage, you may want to take that with a grain of salt.

Beef Production was very strong after the holiday shortened week with 674,000 head harvested, compared to 603,000 the week prior.

Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected.   New cases for the week only 170 birds so we stay right around 40 million total birds removed from the food chain.  The next couple weeks of warmer weather should help limit any more spread of the virus.  At least lets hope so.  Pricing for this week sees boneless skinless breast continuing lower and I expect we have a few more weeks of this market moving lower.  Interesting that tenders are holding their value while breasts continue lower.  Wings are hanging steady as production is well meeting demand. 

Episode Sources:
https://www.agweek.com/news/north-dakota-makes-a-jump-on-soybean-planting-usda-crop-progress-report-says

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com

Find us on Social Media:

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• Facebook
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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Let’s look at some markets and start again with Poultry and the continuation of the Avian Flu outbreak.   

Poultry: Avian Flu now has been detected in 36 states same as last week. After last week only reporting 600 birds this week we had a large egg laying operation in Colorado depopulate 1.9 million birds pushing the overall total to just shy of 40 million birds.  My hopes for this outbreak to be over look a bit premature right now.  Looking at boneless skinless breasts I’m finally seeing chicken breasts have peaked and slowly moving just a bit lower.  Tenders are still well sold and holding their value but we seem to be heading lower on breast meat.. finally. Chicken production is up slightly over the last week, demand is still strong from the  QSR segment but looks like.  Wings are holding steady and continue to be the value in the chicken market.  

Beef:  The holiday shortened production week had 603 K harvested down from the prior week 644K which is a pretty strong production number for a holiday week.  There is product available and the market seems pretty steady. Rounds and chucks are steady, loins and tenderloins have the most current demand and are steady to slightly up.  Ribeyes are not demanding the summer attention we’ve seen in previous years.  Even though we are well below pricing same time last year beef is not holding retail demand.  I don’t see much to change a well supplied market with moderate demand, I’ll call this market just hanging out.  

Pork: Bellies crashed yesterday all the way down to $138 almost $35 dollars down from last week’s $173. This is not something typical this time of year.  Bellies can bounce around and be unpredictable so let’s take advantage of this current low market, I don’t think this will last.  Loins and butts continue pretty steady for a third week, still fairly elevated but for the time of year we seem to be doing Ok.  Ribs on the other hand after chilling for a couple weeks are moving higher again.  All these pork prices should have a summer peak in late July or early August.    

Grains: Corn closed at $7.97 up from last week’s $7.52.  Continued war in Ukraine is holding up product for much of the world. New crop planting is nearly done with 94% of the crop in the ground.  Export demand continues strong so no relief on corn prices any time soon.  Soy beans hit an all time high this week which has not translated to soy oil.. yet.  Still holding steady for a second week though Canola is getting tight, and outpricing soy now.  Some suppliers are allocating canola oil hoping to stretch to new crop.  New soy crop is 78% planted up from 66% last week so a few more weeks planting hand hoping the weather cooperates.  Wheat continues to struggle, spring wheat planting is at 82% which is about 15% behind expectations.  Winter wheat harvest is proceeding  crop quality is not good with only 30% harvested so far rated good to excellent which is about 20% below expectations.  Flour is in tight supply and expensive.  That is not changing any time soon.  

Dairy: Through Thursday, Barrel is down 1, block is up 2 and butter is up 10. Butter has hit a high not seen since September of 2015.  Strong export demand and competition from ice cream makers has this market moving up.  I’m hearing we aren’t done yet but not sure how much higher we can go.

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