We are seeing the wind-down of Avian Flu with only one state, Georgia, added this week making the total number of states 36.  Three farms in Iowa have had their quarantine lifted and are starting to repopulate their operations. Chicken breasts and tenders continue higher with no stop in sight. Wings remain the bargain here. Turkey is scarce and expensive. Specialty eggs are in tight supply. Beef production is strong and there is product available, but prices are moving slightly higher. Pork prices are holding steady, but production will decline in the heat of the summer. Corn and soy planting have picked up the pace and are almost meeting the five-year average. With wheat still being difficult this year, stay well ahead of your flour needs.

Episode Sources: 

• https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
• https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html 
• https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
• https://www.urnerbarry.com/
• https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
• http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html

Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com

Find us on Social Media:

1. Instagram
2. Facebook
3. YouTube
4. Twitter
5. LinkedIn

Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Avian Flu now has been detected in 35 states same as last week.  Just over  38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up only about 24K for the week, the smallest total in weeks.  Most affected are egg layers which accounts for about 76% of all avian flu cases.  Turkeys have been hit hard as well, availability will be impacted on turkeys and turkey products.  Looking at current markets and the march higher on boneless chicken breast continues.  Wings are now moving higher as well, still the bargain in chicken though. 
Episode Sources: 

• https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
• https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html 
• https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
• https://www.urnerbarry.com/
• https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
• http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html

Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com

Find us on Social Media:

• Instagram
• Facebook
• YouTube
• Twitter
• LinkedIn

Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Avian Flu now has been detected in 35 states adding one more state to the list.  Around 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up only about 100K for the week. One contact in the turkey business told me we just need 7 straight days over 70 degrees and the virus will die.  Again, the damage is done but hopefully we are at the end of this outbreak.  Not to be a downer but I did see some speculation the virus will return come fall when the weather gets cool again and give us a double whammy. Looking at current markets and chicken breasts are still moving higher and setting new records.  With breast meat now costing more than ground beef and pork loins and butts, I’m hard pressed to see this market continue much higher, but with QSR demand holding strong and production only showing small increases I don’t see any relief either.  Looks like we were right on wings having hit bottom, they are moving higher again.  Still a bargain compared to breast meat but I think we’ve seen the bottom for this run on wing prices. 

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Avian Flu now has been detected in 34 states adding two more states to the list.  Around 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up about 1 million for the week. We are seeing slower growth each week and as I understand it this virus is not hardy in warmer weather.  Heading into summer we should see things calm down, but the effects of this outbreak should not be minimized.  Egg layers and turkey producers have been severely affected.  Expect  turkey products to be tight and expensive, and I’m not even talking about the holidays.  Looking at chicken and this song is the same.  Breast meat is higher still and no sign of stopping.  Wings maybe are about as low as we are going to see.  I’m not expecting wings to move higher just seems we may be at the bottom here.  Production numbers are not increasing to keep pace with the strong demand.  Things could be getting tight on breast meat in the next few weeks.  Hard to buy ahead on fresh product but I would not recommend running this inventory tight.    

Episode Sources: 

• https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
• https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html 
• https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
• https://www.urnerbarry.com/
• https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
• http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html
• Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com

Find us on Social Media:

• Instagram
• Facebook
• YouTube
• Twitter
• LinkedIn

Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

There is expectation that Indonesia will reopen their palm oil exports, which will be a big help, but I don’t see soy coming back any time soon.  A look at wheat and markets are moving higher again on poor plantings and very strong demand.  I know I say it every week, but stay well ahead of your flour needs. 
Episode Sources: https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d

https://www.agweb.com/markets/market-outlooks/3-reasons-corn-prices-are-staying-high?mkt_tok=ODQzLVlHQi03OTMAAAGEL8VL_0u2qVCn7vCWlUbkpdhPY4YwXte7u0ZRsHxBf8cuvAFsxpqipqq3AFgifUuZAekAmiLee-edMiYgk8bilx4sBLjvgi33z6T0X5vFhrK2NMI

https://www.card.iastate.edu/research/biorenewables/tools/hist_eth_gm.aspx

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Avian Flu has now been detected in 29 states , with no additional states for the week. 

The big two sectors hit are egg layers and turkeys. Usually those operations affected will be out of commission about six months, so this is not a short term issue.  

Corn which closed at $8.18 up from last week’s $8.11.  This is a really high market.  
Episode Sources: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.barchart.com/
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/?locale=en

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Avian Flu now has been detected in 29 states, three more added since last week. 

31 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply adding another 6 million birds since last week.    Shell eggs and turkeys seem to be the most affected so far.  We did not see the annual after Easter drop in shell egg prices and I would not expect to see that any time soon.  On the current market I’m sounding the same song, boneless skinless breasts and tenders continue higher still while packers are struggling to find homes for wings.  Import bans on US poultry are popping up as infections continue so what is being produced will be staying in the country.      

Corn closed over $8, up to  $8.11 for the first time this year up from last week at $7.79. We are into silly season when weather reports move markets. Snow and rain have delayed planting in the northern states and lower scheduled acres are already making some people a bit skittish. 

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Soy oil has moved to it’s highest trade level of the year.  Strong export demand and biofuels help keep pushing soy higher.  Wheat is tight, and expensive though I’m told come June or July we should see relief in availability of flour.  I’m not believing yet, but we will keep watching.

Episode Sources: https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d

 https://www.indystar.com/story/news/environment/2022/04/13/bird-flu-2022-easter-eggs-prices-up-inflation/7275942001/

 https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022

 https://www.urnerbarry.com/

 https://www.barchart.com/

 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

Lets look at a few markets together and I’m starting again this week with Poultry because Avian Flu continues to grow.  

Poultry As of yesterday avian flu has been detected in 24 states just one more than last week.  So far 23 million birds have been removed from the food chain, an additional 6 million birds for the week.  Hardest hit is Iowa and egg laying facilities.  Of the 23 million birds affected, 13 million have been in Iowa.  While any detection is difficult when egg layers are infected not only do we lose the bird but also all the eggs they won’t be laying.  Shell eggs a week before Easter are typically as high as they get, so let’s hope we see some relief over the next couple weeks though we are in a very different situation than usual.  During the 2015 Avian flu outbreak the total bird depopulation was about 50 million birds.  Warm weather will slow the virus so we probably have several weeks to go.  Demand for chicken continues strong and breast meat continues higher.  Wings continue to amaze me with lower numbers again.  I know it is really early to say this, but turkeys  for the holidays are lining up to be very short and very expensive.  

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

As of yesterday, avian flu has been detected in 23 states, up from last week at 17 states.  So far 17 million birds have been removed from the food chain, an additional 4 million birds for the week. .  Detection of avian flu in Minnesota is quite concerning as 20% of the US turkey population is raised in Minnesota.    As with last week, shell eggs are on a tear moving higher again for next week.  We have two weeks to Easter, hopefully we can get by the holiday and see these prices ease.  Boneless chicken breasts continue to inch higher on strong retail and QSR demand.  Wings may be about at bottom for this market so if you are inclined and have the room, would not be a bad thing to load in a few cases. Breasts running at a premium of over $.70/# over wings is extraordinary.  

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn